外汇进阶学习--技术分析的谬误

很抱歉没有任何导师、课程、文学作品会给你带来交易圣杯。
----“没有任何人会出售一只产金蛋的鹅，他有可能出售的是金蛋，但绝对不会是鹅。”

然而，我要谦虚的尝试一下。从上世纪70年代至今，许多外汇界的领军人物把他们预测的外汇走势模式化为技术指标，并将它们公诸于众。有些人走到了前沿去出售自己的研究成果，比如始祖查尔斯•道的道氏理论后来演变为道琼斯指数；勒奈•笛卡尔引进了螺旋研究；列奥纳多创造了斐波那契数列；威廉•江恩创造了把时间与价格完美的结合起来的理论；艾略特发现了波浪理论；威尔斯•威尔德通过上升指标（+DI）、下降指标（-DI）、平均动向指标（ADX）和相对强弱指标完成了对超买超卖的统计；此外还有随机指标，平滑异同移动平均线（MACD）指标等等

如果谁要是把上述的研究成果加载到交易图标上，那么你将会看到一部很“漂亮”的艺术作品。它的杂乱无章只能让毫无经验的交易者眼花缭乱。又或许，图表专家会教你使用各图表：折线图、柱状图、日本蜡烛图、约翰•希尔的条形图和逆转模式、反向波点、轴心点等，虽然图表、技术指标专家可以容易地找到很多新颖的创造性的技术、方法。但是容易忽略的是，这些显示在交易屏幕上图表、指标只是协助交易者的决策。

有一句格言是：图表可以告诉你上千种信息。
“图表并不是告诉你为什么，而是指示卖或买。不论交易者成功或失败，都希望交易信号显示正确的指向。”从我这么多年的研究成果来看，我可以说这些交易指标都有各不相同的作用，但是它们都有相同的目的：给交易者提供交易信号。

引用丘吉尔的一句话：
“你可以一直对某些人说谎，偶尔对所有人说谎，但是你不会在所有时间对所有人说谎。”
同样的，这些研究成果可能会一直在某些某种市场行情中内作用，偶尔在所有的市场行情中起作用，但并不会一直在所有的市场行情中起作用。
好好想一想我上面引用的话。

有些交易者和技术分析师（我本人也是一名持证分析师）遇到的问题就是，他们认为指标是交易成功路上的 “圣杯”，这与真理相距甚远。任何一个有头脑的交易者，最终都会意识到，他们只是工具。工具是建立在历史和滞后的数据库之上的。并且，参数是严格的依据多变的市场获取的。市场是多变的，参数是“死的”。你什么时候看到过市场变成一个去适应交易者行为的生物？许多交易者容易忽略的是，市场是参与者交易行为的总和。这些工具只是去衡量市场的运行情况，而不是像医生手中的温度计、木工手中的尺子那么准确。

那么，这些研究成果本身怎么可能会被认为是交易“圣杯”呢？这或许是由于交易者的无知（刚接触、没有经验）、懒惰、或者仅仅是因为倔强（仅有一点知识是一件很危险的事）。至于那些仅有一点知识却想去欺骗比他们懂得更少的人的事就要另当别论了。有些人确实如此，因为他们犯了一种最新发现的叫作“机会”疾病。如果你把技术研究作为你的圣杯，我只能送你三个字：投机者。
如果你认为技术研究不仅仅是工具的话，那么你就陷入了交易市场的谬论。这只会把您引入更危险的境地。

许多交易者不知道或者没有意识到成功的征服市场是在各种条件都具备的前提下的，就像烤蛋糕一样。我建议三个重要的条件：第一个是市场结构，第二个是你自己，最后一个是资金。当然，除此之外还有许多条件，但是现在，我个人认为以上三点尤为重要。我希望你认真的思考我说的话。如果可以的话，我将会在黑暗的隧道尽头给你打开一扇门。

祝你好运~

Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc

If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.

Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ………..etc

Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.

What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.

"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."

Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.

The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.

How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.

Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.

I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.

What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.

I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.

regards

文章来源：http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供