进入新年不足两个月，很多交易者就已经在讨论外汇市场上较高的波动性了。事实上，一些市场交易专家就推测，2月份的波动性很有可能比1月份大！那么，他们关心的到底是什么呢?
波动性意味着什么？
首先，我们需要花些时间来了解波动性是什么。技术层面上说，波动性是衡量价格与历史趋势之间的偏差。刨去金融的繁杂性，波动性简单来说就是指价格行为随着时间的波动幅度。
我下面的一些不成熟的交易者会把市场波动性比作女孩的情绪，这种情绪通常与不同程度的感性相关。在一个波动剧烈的市场环境中，价格无论对利好消息还是坏消息都会过度反应，这与一些感性的女孩对一些小事小题大做的道理一样。
波动性如何衡量？
与女孩来无影去无踪的情绪相反的是，市场波动可以根据过去的价格走势推断出来。尤其是，一些市场观察者喜欢使用波动指数（VIX）来预测价格走势的波动性。
VIX通过追踪标普500期权的潜在波动性来预测市场接下来30天内的波动性。有经验的交易者发现，大幅度的波动性通常会聚集在一起，因此，VIX值升高表示大的波动性即将发生。
VIX也被成为“恐怖指数”，因为上升的VIX可以反映市场的不确定性而下降的VIX则表明市场信心的增强。
VIX指数这些天表现如何？
理解VIX是处于高点还是低点有助于我们将其与平均值对比。在过去的几十年中，中间值是18.5，意思是，VIX值有一半时间大于18.5，一半时间小于18.5.
由于上周价格快速上升，VIX价格目前维持在21.44左右的高位——自2012年12月美国“财政悬崖”问题占据头条以来的最高位。这也是四个月以来VIX首次大于20.0！
我现在到底应该做什么？！
冷静！实事求是的看待，VIX仍然距离2008年的金融危机60.0的高位很远，所以现在还没有必要惊慌。分析师认为，波动的突然上升可能是由于投资者面对价格下滑的可能性争相对冲头寸。
上面说了这么多关于市场可能发生的危机，一些交易者也在为最坏的结果做打算。然而，应对市场过度焦虑的最坏方法是持续地怀疑你的交易策略。记住，我们正在一个随时可能改变价格走势的市场中做交易，所以，专注于市场并控制你的情绪很重要。
What is the Volatility Index and Why Should I Care?
Less than a couple months into the year and traders are already buzzing about the high volatility in the forex market. In fact, some market experts are predicting that volatility this February might be higher compared to that of January! What in the world are they fussing about?
What does volatility mean?
First up, let’s take a few moments to understand what volatility is all about. Technically speaking, volatility measures the standard deviation of historical market prices. Financial mumbo-jumbo aside, volatility simply refers to how much price action fluctuates over time.
Some of my trading buds compare market volatility to a girl’s mood swings, which are often associated with varying degrees of sensitivity. In a highly volatile market environment, the reaction to positive or negative news is typically magnified, much like a girl who tends to make a big deal out of small issues when she is in a sensitive mood.
How is market volatility measured?
Unlike a girl’s mood swings which come and go without much warning, market volatility can be measured based on past price action. In particular, market watchers like to look at the Volatility Index or VIX to gauge how volatile price action could be in the future.
The VIX keeps track of the implied volatility of S&P500 options and is used to predict market volatility for the next 30 days. Seasoned traders believe that periods of high volatility tend to get clustered, which suggests that rising VIX levels signal that higher market volatility is to be expected.
The VIX is also dubbed as the “fear index” because rising VIX levels reflect market uncertainty while falling VIX levels indicate improving market confidence.
How is the VIX looking these days?
To understand whether the VIX is at a high or low point, it helps to compare it to its average levels. For the past couple of decades, the median stands at 18.5, which simply means that half of the VIX readings came in above 18.5 while the other half printed below 18.5.
Thanks to last week’s jumpy price action, the VIX is currently hovering around 21.44 – its highest level since December 2012 when U.S. fiscal cliff concerns dominated the headlines. This also marks the first time that the VIX landed above the 20.0 level in the past four months!
What the heck am I supposed to do now?!
Calm down! To put things in perspective, the VIX is still miles away from the 60.0 levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis so there’s no reason to panic just yet. Analysts say that the sudden pick-up in volatility may have been caused by investors scrambling to hedge their positions against a potential market decline.
With all the talk of a possible emerging markets crisis, it’s no surprise that several market players are bracing for the worst. However, one of the worst ways to deal with higher levels of market anxiety is to be increasingly anxious with your trading decisions as well. Remember that we are dealing with a potential shift in market environment so it’s crucial to maintain a focused mindset and keep your emotions in check.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/what-is-the-volatility-index/2014/02/13/