中国经济的增长速度比政府预期的要缓慢很多，人民银行进一步降息的可能性也加大。
根据历法，2015年是羊年，而羊是与平静与繁荣联系在一起的。但是中国股市却只有繁荣，没有平静。国内股市在过去的12个月上涨了将近100%，股价似乎被过高估值，这很有可能会导致市场泡沫的产生。投资者对股票的需求是如此之大，这股热情也涌进了香港。那么，中国股市的动力会一直保持还是它实际上就是即将到来的泡沫？
首先，讲解几个学术术语。中国大陆股票市场被称为A股市场。A股只能由中国人或者持有特权的国外投资者购买。对于那些希望进入国际资本市场的中国公司，它们也会在香港证券交易所上市，拥有H股或者国际共享股。
同一家公司在两家不同的证券交易所的价格有可能不同，因为每家交易所都有特定的投资者，而且A股价格自始以来都比H股高。年初开始的沪港通计划允许中国投资者投资H股，香港的投资者也可以投资A股。然而，南北流向的资金量却受到限制。
随着A股触及到7年来的新高，沪港通的限制也有所放宽，中国证券投资基金可以参与沪港通交易。
中国投资者对这一发展非常兴奋，很明显，他们可以买到价格低廉的H股，三月份账户数量达到1,670,000，平均资金为240,000。这种热情一定程度上是由中国政府推动，它希望投资者将投资的重点从价格不断升高的当地市场转向国际市场。
市场的反弹幅度令人吃惊，香港恒生指数三天涨幅超过10%，今年已经上涨了19%。资金仍然不断地流入，沪港通每日17亿美元的限额被不断地触及。我们不得不猜测金融市场泡沫已经产生，因为金融市场泡沫在破裂前是很难识别的。
任何资产或者市场指数表现出这种强劲的上升趋势，意味着它的大调整即将到来。近期的调整和获利平仓都是合理的。然而，中长期来看，H股的涨势仍然可能继续。香港市场的股票价格仍然低于大陆价格，所以港股还会保持一个较长时间的增长。恒生指数仍然以低于长期平均的价格交易，A股相对于H股仍然存在溢价，在价差弥补之前，需求仍然会不断增长。
坏消息就是好消息
经济增长速度比中国政府官员预期的要慢，人们对中国人民银行的进一步降息或者采取财政刺激措施的期望也在不断加大。最后，资金进入港沪通仍然有一定的困难，市场有可能加大流通量。A股、H股的资金量将会有不同的流量限制。同时，如果只是为了跟上基准，一些基金公司有可能被迫买入股票。中国市场占据摩根士丹利亚太指数（不包括日本）的22%以及新兴市场指数的24%。任何减持中国股票的基准投资者都有可能被迫买入。
然而，问题是，套利机会褪色后，投资者需要看到中国经济基本面的重大改善以及大量的企业盈利。没有该支持的话，那么反弹将是十分短暂的，不是真正的“金毛羊”。
Should Investors Be Concerned About China?
Economic growth is slowing faster than Chinese officials want and there is increasing anticipation for further rate cuts from the Peoples Bank of China
This year the year of the sheep according to the Chinese zodiac calendar and is associated with the characteristics of calmness and prosperity. Only one of those applies to Chinese equity markets at present and it’s not calmness.
The domestic stock market in China has gained nearly 100% in the last 12 months and valuations in the market are starting to look very lofty prompting calls of a market bubble. The demand for equities is so great from Chinese investors that enthusiasm is pouring over into the Hong Kong market. So can the momentum in Chinese equities be sustained or is this really a bubble on the brink?
First a few technicalities, the local Chinese market is known as the A share market, A shares are stocks in companies that can only be purchased by local Chinese investors or by foreign investors who have been given special access. For Chinese companies wishing to access international capital markets they may also list on the Hong Kong stock exchange and have a H-share or international share class.
The same company listed on both exchanges may trade at different prices because each can only be accessed by certain investors and because of this A-share stocks have historically been more expensive than the H share stocks.
Near the start of the year the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme was launched which allowed investors in China to invest in the H share stocks and investors in Hong Kong to invest in the A share class. However, the amount of money that could flow north and south was restricted as were the investors who could access it.
But as the A-share market hit a seven year high, the restrictions on who could use the Stock Connect programme were relaxed allowing Chinese mutual funds to partake in the programme.
The euphoria of Chinese investors at this development and being able to buy the cheaper H-share market is clearly evident in the surge of new investment accounts being opened in China, jumping from 1,670,000 against an average March value of 240,000. To some degree this enthusiasm is being propagated by the Chinese government who want investors to shift their focus from the increasingly expensive local market to an international one.
The market rally has been staggering the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained just over 10% in three days and is up 19% this year. This isn’t stopping the money flowing and the Stock Connect’s daily quota of $1.7 billion continues to be tested. This has to speculation about a possible bubble. The trouble with bubbles is that they are very hard to identify until they have popped.
Any asset or market index that rises this far this fast is ripe for large correction, and some near term consolidation or profit taking seems sensible. However, over a more medium term time frame the rally in the H-shares could continue.
The catch up in the Hong Kong market could run for a little longer as valuations in that market are lower than their Chinese counterparts. The Hang Seng is still trading at below its long run average and A-shares are still at a premium to H-shares, and until that gap closes demand will persist.
Bad News is Good News
Economic growth is slowing faster than perhaps Chinese officials want and there is increasing anticipation for further rate cuts from the Peoples Bank of China and fiscal stimulus measures from the government.
Finally, the market may be supported flows. The quota on the Stock Connect may be extended and given the difference in size between the A and H share markets there is still plenty of pressure forcing capital through that system. Meanwhile, some funds may be forced into buying Chinese equities if only to keep up with benchmarks. China accounts for 22% and 24% of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Index respectively. Any benchmark focused investor who has been underweight China may now be forced into buying shares.
Nevertheless, the question is after the arbitrage opportunities have faded investors will need to see evidence of significant improvement in China’s economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. Without this the rally could be very short term indeed and prove not to be the sheep with the golden fleece.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/136975/should-investors-be-concerned-about-china.aspx