从第一次进行交易的交易员到积累了几十年经验的交易员，都会问这样一个问题,什么是基于预期和基于确认的正确的平衡？我的答案是：抓住这个问题的中心词。
我所遇到的大多数成功的交易员都是伟大的计划者和预期者。他们排列结构、支撑和阻力水平、指标、模式、概率(等等），以便能让交易产生积极的结果。
这不意味着他们在所有时间都必须正确，对你也一样。事实上，我经历过一些由最初计划和入市是错误的交易产生的惊人利润，因为随着时间的推移，市场的确效仿了原来的分析并提供了所需要的方向。在这一点上，所有的问题就是如何控制我们的利润。
对交易员来说这是一个神奇的问题。“我怎样才能控制好我的利润？”比“我怎样找到盈利的交易？”要好的多。
市场朝他们各自的节奏、波浪和趋势运动。我们作为交易员发现一些特定的工具有他们自己的趋势性和特点。一些市场像跳华尔兹一样轻轻旋转，另一些则跳霹雳舞，甚至有一些则狂舞。如果其中有一种能适应你的特定策略，你就会有利可图。更好的是，你的交易计划能使你大多数的婚礼音乐播放员变得恭顺。
我喜欢利用那些有利于我的交易风格和策略的市场行为。需要时间和精力去辨认这些特征。他们可能不是在每个市场和金融工具上都存在，但是他们足够我们以重复的模式和特性进行我们计划好的交易。这个对我很合适，所以说对大多数对大多数交易员都合适。不要让任何人告诉你相反的一面。
知道什么时间预期和确认
那么交易员怎么知道何时去预期合适去确认呢？在我坦诚的观点看来，这完全取决于你自己。
当你做计划的时候预期是重要的。执行时确认是必要的。一个交易仅仅是一个规模、范围和难度不同的交易。
有时在和一些失败的或者我必须去结束的预期交易斗争之后，我就只有很少的交易确认去做。然后，我就会因为进行这么少的交易而无聊的要发疯，我觉得我因为恪守确认而走在了机会前面。其他时候，我会很高兴我通过了预期交易并等待确认，特别是我通过等待确认避免了顽固运动造成的压力和不安。
为你的交易做计划并按计划交易
当我们准备一个计划的时候，我们的自我暗示可能是自信或者恐惧。如果你进行了交易记录并目睹了市场趋势，你就有一段它喜欢怎样表现的历史。这并不意味这它总是这样或者他永远不会使你失望，暗示它会产生你喜欢的重复体质。这将使你的交易充满信心，知道你以前的交易运作，这样它再次出现时你就不会吃惊。如果交易不向你预期的进行，相信我，这里有其他交易。
你可能已经听过下面的格言无数次：“为你的交易做计划并按计划交易”。理论上,这是伟大的和真实的,但在现实中,有时我们需要计划(复数),在其他情况下我们需要有计划a、b、c。如果你已经有一个计划并且它在任何时间都表现良好，那么无论如何都要坚持下去不要偏离他。
就我个人而言，我已经尝试了千篇一律的方法，但是它并不符合我的胃口。也许是我过度交易、交易不足或者仅仅是没有看到结果，所以我扩展我的策略目录并增加我的效率。请明白，这不是对带有冲突策略过度交易交易员的全权委托。一个极其困难的任务是克服涉猎的冲动策略，避免缺乏深入广泛调查的策略转移。
评估你的成功
在我作为交易员的过程中，一旦我意识到改变交易计划不能给我带来更高的回报，我开始寻找我进行的最好和最坏交易的共同点。这个评估和正反两方面评估没什么不同。我的正面是盈利交易，我的反面是受损交易或者不愉快交易。我的策略列表可能有一点小的脸部改变，但是我小心使用肉毒杆菌，因为基本原则是相同的且计划是相似的。小心不要创建一个发出互相矛盾信号使你没有方向感的奇怪策略。如果你发现自己在玩水的时候，请记住，你可以回到绘图板，专注于一个单一的基础。
我们都希望市场能到达我们期望方向的最大精度，但是我最后一次陈述，毕竟我们都不是做市商。事实上，如果我们的计划如此正确，我们为什么不寻找顶部和底部或者最高点和最低点呢？事后诸葛亮人人都会且在事实发生后交易看起来会容易很多，但是为了信任的右侧图表(即未来价格走势)，我们需要经历必要的重复给我们的设置和交易提供信心。
预期和确认在这里交汇。我的交易当然不能打本垒打、一杆进洞或者正中靶心，但是对于安全打、标准杆和命中目标来说已经足够成功了。（另见，五分钟投资：怎样评估一个投资策略）。
总结
我们不是做市商，我们只是鲨鱼上的鮣鱼，鳄鱼身上的千鸟。为什么用这些生物比喻呢？因为太多的交易员认为市场是危险和致命的。尽管市场能制造痛苦和压力并吞噬受害者一定的部分，但是我们认识到了它的凶残，我们仍然能在他的不良情绪中生存，并在这一过程中寻找到一些有利可图的面包屑。
Anticipation vs. Confirmation for Today’s Forex Trader
From the time they place that first trade to the time they’ve accumulated decades of experience under their belts, many traders ask, what is the right balance between placing trades based on anticipation versus trades based on confirmation? My suggestion: tackle this question head-on.
The most successful traders I have met are usually great planners and great anticipators. They align structure, support and resistance levels, indicators, patterns, probabilities (the list goes on), in order to place trades that yield positive results.
This does not mean that they have to be right all of the time, and neither do you. In fact, I have experienced some amazing profits by initially being wrong with my first setup and entry, but with time, the market did in fact follow suit with the original analysis and provided the needed direction. At that point, it is all a matter of how well we can manage our profits.
This is a fantastic problem to have as a trader. “How well can I manage my profits?” is a far better issue than “how can I find winning trades?”.
The markets will move to their respective rhythms, waves, and trends. We as traders notice that certain instruments have their own tendencies and characteristics. Certain markets waltz, while others break-dance, and some might even mosh. If one of those styles fit your particular strategy, you could be profitable. Better yet, maybe you have trading plans that will humble your most diverse wedding DJ.
I love exploiting market behaviors that are conducive for my trading style and strategies. It took time and effort to identify these attributes. This may not be in every market or every financial instrument, but it is enough to trade repetitive patterns and traits in order to only take the trades that set up according to my plan. It works for me and that is probably a saying that most traders should enjoy making their own. Do not let anyone tell you otherwise. (For more, read: How To Start Trading: Trading Styles.)
Knowing when to anticipate or confirm
So how does a trader know when it is time to anticipate and time to confirm? In my honest opinion, it is completely up to you.
Anticipation is great when you are planning. Confirmation is necessary when you are executing. A trade is just a trade in a sample of many trades of varying size, scope, and difficulty.
Sometimes after fighting some anticipation trades that went awry or that I had to work through, I have a spell of only trading confirmation. Then, I am crazy bored by taking so few trades that I feel like I am foregoing opportunities because of my commitment to confirmation. Other times, I am very pleased I passed on the anticipation trade and waited for confirmation, particularly when a stubborn move would have caused some stress and uneasiness, extra stress I avoided by waiting for confirmation. (See also, Why is confirmation on a chart important when evaluating a trade strategy?)
Plan your trade and trade your plan
When traders are preparing for a setup, our self-talk is either confident or fearful. If you have logged your trades and witnessed the market’s tendencies, you have a history with the market that has exhibited what it likes to do. It does not mean it will always do this or that it will never fail you on occasion, but it will produce repetitive setups that tip the probabilities in your favor. This allows you to trade with confidence, knowing you have seen the trade work before so it would not surprise you to see it work again. If this trade does not work to your liking, believe me, there will be other trades.
You have probably heard the following adage time and time again: It goes, “plan your trade and trade your plan.” In theory, it is great and true, but in reality, sometimes we need to have plans (plural) and have a PLAN A/B/C in other cases. If you have one plan and it is working all of the time, by all means, stick to it and do not deviate from something that is working well.
Personally, I have tried the cookie-cutter approach and it did not pan out to my liking. Maybe I was over-trading, not trading enough, or just was not seeing the results, so I started to expand my strategic catalog to increase my effectiveness. Please understand that this is not carte blanche to overload traders with conflicting strategies. One incredibly difficult task is overcoming the urge to dabble and jump from system to system and strategy to strategy without due diligence and extensive vetting. (For more, see the Investopedia Guide to Stock-Picking Strategies.)
Evaluating your success
In my journey as a trader, once I realized the dabbling with the trading plan was not helping me see higher returns, I began searching for commonalities with my best and worst trades. This assessment is no different than evaluating pros and cons. My pros were winning trades, my cons were losing trades or less enjoyable trades. My strategic list may have received a little face-lift, but I went easy on the BOTOX because the fundamental principles are the same and the setups are similar. Be careful not to create a strategy monster that will send conflicting signals leaving you paralyzed and directionless. If you find yourself dabbling, remember, you can always go back to the drawing board and focus on a simple foundation.
We all want the market to move to our liking with utmost precision, but last time I checked, we are not market makers to any degree. In fact, if our planning was so great, why are we not calling the perfect tops and bottoms or highs and lows? Hindsight is 20/20 and trading is certainly easier after the fact, but in order to trust the right side of the chart (i.e. future price action), we need to have tested and/or experienced the repetition necessary to give us the confidence to take the setup and the trade.
This is where anticipation meets confirmation. My trading certainly is not about hitting home runs, hole-in-ones, or bull’s-eyes, but it is successful enough for base hits, greens in regulation, or consistent marks. (See also, Five Minute Investing: How To Evaluate A Trading Strategy.)
The Bottom Line
If we are not the market makers, we are merely the remora on the shark, or the plover bird on the crocodile. Why use those specific organisms? Because too many traders feel the market is dangerous and deadly. Although the market is certainly capable of causing grief and stress and has taken its fair share of victims, as long as you respect its ferocity, we can still survive its bad moods and find some profitable crumbs in the process. In fact, we may even be incredibly profitable during these times of tantrum. I encourage you to find your balance between anticipation and confirmation and arm yourself with strategies that you trust and have seen work time and again.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/050115/anticipation-vs-confirmation-todays-forex-trader.asp