“不要低估什么都不做的价值” - Winnie the Pooh
在现代的投资公司，管理专员总是不遗余力地显示他们是多么的忙碌。心理学家给出的技术术语是“引人注目地忙碌”。他们是受到24/7小时“重要的”金融新闻的刺激。当然，这是新闻记者的一部分工作——CNBC主持人需要寻找有趣的谈资来愉悦他们的观众。市场观察日报的记者需要每隔几小时更新头条。投资者非常乐意地上钩，他们不断追随这些报道，并展示他们对新数据的理解。如果你能显示出你是根据数据交易，这看起来似乎更好！但是对于一个严肃的、“引人注目地忙碌”的投资者来说，他注意力分散在上述事情中对于他真正地获取盈利非常危险的。
这种情况让我想起了《赛车大赛》这一部电影里的场景里面的Dastardly以及Muttley。我发现，不论我观看多少次，我都能像一个孩子似的莫名地被逗乐。Dastardly快要从悬崖边缘坠落的时候，他向Muttley喊到，“不要只站在那，做些什么！！”Muttley站在悬崖边上，凝视了一会之后就开始跳起习惯性的舞蹈动作。（从下一场景可以看出，摔落悬崖并不是Dastardly的厄运，他又站了起来并且可以跑。）
作为投资者社交网络的创始人，你或许会觉得我推荐较少的工作是一件很奇怪的事。我们不想投资行为是在牺牲别的活动时间的情况下进行的。如果你想，可以有很多别的社交网络，比如Twitter或Stock Twits。相对于数量来说，我们网站更注重的是质量。
似乎很多投资者并不欣赏这一点，但每年一或两个伟大的想法比上百个平庸的想法有意义的多。100万资产用于交易100个平庸的想法，得到的仍然是平庸的回报！这也就是为什么我们鼓励交易者提出他们有较高信心的建议。
“当机会来临时你再做些什么。我人生中有些时间会有各种想法喷涌而出，我也有思维枯竭的时候。下周如果我有一个想法，我会做些什么。如果没有，我不会做出任何蠢事”Warren Buffett
你没有交易不代表你没有工作。事实上，你需要一直去努力寻找新的机会，并根据你所掌握的知识来衡量这些机会的价值。一个优秀的投资者就像滑过水面的天鹅——所有的工作都是在水下进行。尽管努力做出的工作不被外界感知，但最终的结果是强大的。不幸的是，很多投资者像狗一样跳入河中去追寻河面上的一根木棒。在河的表面能看到它所作出的大量努力，但是进展缓慢。买卖分析师的实际情况或许更糟。
“分析师的建议可能不会产生好结果，部分原因是来自他们的压力。他们频繁地而不是明智地作出交易决策”—— Seth Klarman
大型银行的卖方分析师通常被要求对整个行业进行“海滩报道”。意思是，他们需要报道一定数量的股票——通常在10到30只股之间。为了在客户面前发表观点并诱使客户交易，他们在改变建议股票方面有很大的压力。海滩模式的问题迫使分析师在他们所分析的小型股票集合中编故事，即使这个故事非常不可信。真正的机会可能来自别处，但是分析师没有理由去追寻它们，因为他们没有坠入自己的宇宙。
作为前基金经理，我非常迫切地从这种老旧的、破碎的模式中摆脱出来。在StockView这个平台上，可信度是你结果生成的一个函数，而不是你帖子的评论或者追随者的数量。分析师没有被强制去覆盖每一个部门，他们可以自由地分析机会。这就产生了一个让分析师注重交易结果的系统，而不是试图去显示他们是如何的“忙碌”。
“引人注目地忙碌”在如此大的压力下有时感觉不采取行动是十分困难的。但是，一个伟大的投资者总是愿意违背大众趋势，如果他们需要，他们可以什么都不做！
The Art Of Doing Nothing - Managing Your Investments
By Tom Beevers of StockViews
Friday, May 29, 2015 7:41 AM EDT
“Don’t underestimate the value of doing nothing” - Winnie the Pooh
In a modern-day investment firm, the front-office professionals are always at pains to demonstrate how insanely busy they are. The technical term for this given by psychologists is “Conspicuous Industriousness”. They are spurred on by a financial press that supplies a 24/7 stream of “critical news”. Of course this is part of the job for journalists– CNBC anchors need to find something exciting to talk about with their guests. MarketWatch journalists are required to come up with a new headline every few hours. Investors are all too happy to take the bait in their attempt to show they have absorbed and interpreted the new data. If you can show that you traded on that data, it looks even better! But for a serious investor “conspicuous industriousness” can be a dangerous distraction from the real job of generating returns.
The situation often reminds me of a scene from “Wacky Races” featuring Dastardly and Muttley. I found it unreasonably hilarious as a kid, no matter how many times I watched it. Dastardly is about to fall from a cliff and he calls out to Muttley “Don’t just stand there, Muttley, do something!!” Muttley, standing on the edge of the cliff, ponders this for a moment and then breaks into a dance routine as Dastardly falls to his doom (well, not to his doom because he seems to be up and running again in the next scene)
As the founder of a social network for investors, you might find it strange for me to encourage less activity. But at StockViews, we don’t want to encourage activity for activity’s sake. If you want that, there are plenty of alternative networks, like Twitter or StockTwits. Our community is more concerned with quality over quantity.
Many investors don’t seem to appreciate this point, but two or three great ideas each year are better than a hundred mediocre ones. A million dollars spread over 100 mediocre ideas still generates mediocre returns! This is why we encourage users to make recommendations where they have a high level of conviction.
“You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing” Warren Buffett
Just because you’re not trading doesn’t mean you’re not working. In fact you should always be working hard to find new opportunities and to evaluate those opportunities against what you already hold. A good investor is like a Swan gliding across the water – all the activity is going on under the water. Although the hard work is not visible to the outside world, the end result is a powerful one. Unfortunately a lot of investors look like a dog thrashing through the water in pursuit of a stick. There is plenty of work apparent on the surface, but little progress. Sell-side analysts are even worse:
“Analysts recommendations may not produce good results. In part this is due to the pressure placed on these analysts to recommend frequently rather than wisely” - Seth Klarman
At large banks, sell-side analysts are usually required to have “waterfront coverage” of an entire sector. This means that they need to maintain coverage of a certain number of stocks – usually between ten and thirty. In order to get their views in front of clients, and to get the clients trading, there is a strong pressure to change their recommendation frequently. The problem with the waterfront model is that the analyst is forced to create stories within the subset of stocks they cover, even if there is no conviction behind it. The real opportunities may be going on elsewhere, but the analyst has no reason to chase them because they don’t fall into their universe.
As an ex-fund manager I was eager to move away from this old (and broken) model. On the StockViews platform, credibility is a function of the result you generate, not the frequency of your posts or the number of followers you have. Analysts are not forced to cover one sector, but free to go wherever they see opportunities. This leads to a system where analysts focus on the result they generate, rather than constantly trying to appear ‘busy’.
With so much pressure for “Conspicuous Industriousness” it can sometimes feel difficult not to “take action”. But a great investor will always be willing to go against the crowd and, if they need to, will do precisely nothing!
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/investing-ideas--strategies/the-art-of-doing-nothing-managing-your-investments?post=65838&page=3