专业人士分享自己的投资故事以及经验教训
Morgan Barnard，2015.3.2
我们都会犯错误并时常后悔，当所犯错误涉及到大量的金钱的时候，结果通常会更糟糕。幸运的是，你最后总会得到经验教训，就像女演员Stella Adler所说，“如果你不从失败中吸取教训，那么你就只会失败。”
货币网（Moneyweb）找到了一些那些曾经没有就金钱做出正确选择的成功投资者。我们要求他们与读者分享自己的教训，这样读者就能够获得前车之鉴。
不断地评估你的投资
首先与我们分享经验的是Gradidge-Mahura 投资公司的财务规划和投资顾问Craig Gradidge。
他告诉货币网：我所做的一笔糟糕的投资是非洲银行BBBEE（《广义振兴黑人经济法》）股份计划。在我详细了解之前，我认为首先坦率地声明“投资本质上是一个风险的活动，并且你有可能会一错再错”这一点很重要。需要注意的重要事情是投资的决策是否充分分析并使风险最小化。当我投资非洲银行时，该笔投资有很大的价值型。第一阶段我的投资本金增长了6倍。然而，我接下来的评估失败了。我没有对这笔投资或者我投资组合中的任何一笔投资进行一次足够诚实的审查。我没有对客户甚至自己尽到职责。作为一个长期投资者，我通常认为我不需要回顾自己的仓位，但是残酷的现实告诉我，我必须这么做。随着我在非洲银行投资的恶化，我应该取出自己的本金以及部分盈利，只将剩下的部分用于投资。那样的话，我就不会陷入仓位亏损，如果非洲银行的投资好转，我也将会有充足的本金。在恶化的过程中，我有至少机会将我的本金取回。同时，我从这次失败投资经历中学到的教训也很重要。
不要相信炒作
下面一位是Simon Brown，Justonelap.com的创始人。
Brown告诉货币网：“大概在1998年，在Brainware公司首次公开募股的时候我以每只RI的价格买入了2000股。在互联网经济泡沫的时候，它们的价格达到了R6，接下来泡沫破裂了。然而在泡沫和炒作的情况下，我却什么也没做。我很肯定，这只股票将会飞向月球，我会搭乘那辆公共汽车。然而，这只股票持续地下跌、调整、下跌。随后，这只股票被纳米比亚的一家电力公司收购，而价格仍然没有变化。在2013年，这只股票退市。我只获得了大概R120的回报。这不仅是长达15年的大量的亏损，而且，如果我将这笔资金放到银行，我的本金将会翻倍。
我的教训很简单，别相信任何形式的炒作。一直保持怀疑态度，知道你错了或者受挫之后平仓。R6之后的任何平仓价格我都将会获得更多的利润。一直有一个平仓、止损计划。”
没有轻而易举得来的资金
Karl Gevers向我们分享了他的两个悲剧性的投资故事。Karl Gevers是一个投资经理并且是本格拉全球研究主管
“第一个：当我是一个学生的时候，我没有足够的钱投资股票，所以我交易权证。黄金股非常的不稳定，所以权证每天的振幅很大。我很快就实现了翻倍（在校图书馆外操作）。但是当波动性枯竭的时候，我的权证因长时间持有而价值受到侵蚀价值。
经验教训：
1、没有快速盈利的方式…衍生品具有投机性质和危险性。
2、如果你的本金亏损了50%，那么你需要上涨100%才能回到原来的水平。
第二个投资故事：在约翰内斯堡股票交易所的一些失败的私人投资是Transhex, BSI 钢铁厂 以及欧洲精细化工（Chemspec）。这三个的共同点是它们都是低流通性的小股票，并且管理层承诺会扭转该局面。
经验教训：
1、 低股价的股票通常有很高亏损的风险，因为它们的便宜是有原因的。
2、 要关注那些可以让企业产生资本回报的强大竞争优势，比如高质量业务。
3、 好转的情况下有更大的未知风险，或者它们需要更长时间、更多的股东资本。
4、 缺少流动性是平仓的最大风险（未上市投资更是如此）。
我现在专注于将更多的资金投入到那些优质企业，这些企业有更大的潜力，而且能够持续地产生回报。我们将重点放在企业的质量上。我们根据企业品质以及估值作出投资决定，并争取为我们的客户获得最优的风险调整回报。我们的首要任务是保护资本。
我们的投资过程和投资哲学是由上面的一些经验发展而来。我最大的投资错误是2002年购买的Capitec股票…即使当价格低于R2的时候我在财务部工作了6个月，我还是错过了一个200装袋器！
没有如果、但是和也许
最后，Garth Mackenzie与货币网分享了他的宝贵经验：
我刚刚关闭并提现了我迄今为止做过的最差的交易。我想我应该写下这次经验，我希望无论是谁读到这篇文章都可以从中学到教训，不再犯下相同的错误。
这笔投资是位于津巴布韦叫做黎明的属性（Dawn Properties）的公司。我在2007年牛市结束之前的泡沫时期进行的该笔投资。我当时职务是央行股票经纪人，我们当时带领一群人去维多利也瀑布游玩，接着我们被带往津巴布韦的股票经纪公司。在那里，一系列的投资专业以及分析师向我们兜售津巴布韦资产在总统Robert Mugable政府领导下是如何被低估的故事。思路是Mugable的统治权力正在减少。即使他一直掌权，但是他的年龄增长也不利于他的继续执政，该国很有可能看到一个更加光明的未来。
我投资的公司——黎明的属性——是掌控有津巴布韦最优秀旅游资产的公司。购买该公司股票的原因是旅游业将会比政治恢复得要迅速，并且该笔投资资产负债表上的保险替换值是整个公司市值的两倍。因此，我是以低于该公司有形资产价值的价格买入的，而没有考虑津巴布韦的旅游业将如何恢复。
所以，我投资R500 000到黎明属性整个公司，并且寄好安全带等待这它快速增值。
7年很快过去了，津巴布韦的投资没有任何变化，尤其是旅游业。Mugabe仍然不择手段地统治着津巴布韦，而且经济也一直疲软。
我的投资一直流动性不足，并且很难卖出。但是我在上周顺利地清仓并且七年来亏损R233 000或者是47%。
我认为考虑投资黎明属性的根本原因是合理的。但让我生气的是，我07年作出该决定根本上基于一系列的“如果”、“但是”、“或许”等的一个赌注。而这些术语不应该在作出实际投资决定时发挥作用。
诚然，这是一场赌博，一场最终未能取得回报的赌博。
当我进行该笔投资时，我是27岁。现在我34了。我仍然有足够多的积累大量财富的时间，所以，这次亏损不是世界末日。
我的真正错误是我应该更好地知道并坚持合理的投资原则：以长期眼光看待一系列高概率投资结果。而不是如果、但是以及或许。这次亏损是可接受的。但是真正难以接受的是这项投资的机会成本。有几个可以做出更安全、更良好的投资机会，即使考虑2008年和2009年的市场崩溃也可以带来更好的回报。
想象一下如果我当时是以每股R23.00的价格投资沃尔沃斯公司（自从那时起升值了250%），或者以每股R37的价格投资阿斯彭(自从那时起升值了800%）。这些只是2007年那些产生丰厚回报公司的两个例子。
一个共同的想法是年轻的时候你可以承担更大的风险，因为你有很多的时间来修正之前犯下的过错。这实际上是错误的，因为人们通常会在没有必要的高风险情况下做出糟糕的投资决定。相对立的论点是，你年轻的时候有更多的时间，因此一个缓慢而稳定的财富积累方法对于你来说更适用，并会随着时间的增长产生更大的回报，而不需要承担更多不必要的风险。
Failures of a successful investor
Professionals share their war stories and lessons learnt
Morgan Barnard | 2 March 2015 08:27
We have all made mistakes and have a few regrets but the problem becomes more serious when there are large amounts of money involved. Thankfully there is always a lesson to be learnt at the end just as acctress Stella Adler said: “You will only fail to learn if you do not learn from failing.”
Moneyweb scouted out some successful investors who have made some not so successful choices when it came to their money. We asked them to share their lessons with our readers, who might be able to learn from their mistakes.
Keep assessing your investments
First up is Craig Gradidge (pictured), director of Gradidge-Mahura Investments. Gradidge carries out financial planning and investment consulting.
He tells Moneyweb: “The one ‘bad investment’ that I made has to be my investment in African Bank’s (Abil) BBBEE share schemes. Before I go into any detail though, I think it is important to state upfront that investing is inherently a risky activity and one will get things wrong from time to time. The important thing to note is the decision making processes involved, and whether or not those were robust enough to mitigate the risks associated with investing in anything. When I invested in the Abil BBBEE shares (Eyomhlaba and Hlumisa) there was a lot of value to be had from the investments. At one stage I was up over 600% on my Eyomhlaba investment. However, it was my ongoing assessment of the investment that failed. I did not at any time conduct an honest enough review of that investment, or any other investment in my portfolio. While this is something I do with my own clients, it is something I failed to do for myself. As a long-term investor I often feel that I do not have to review my positions, but this was a brutal reminder that I in fact have to do so as well. As the investment case for Abil deteriorated, I should have taken my initial investment plus some return off the table, and left the remainder invested. That way I would not have been in a position of loss, and if Abil had managed to turn things around, I would still have had some exposure.
The Abil story has not fully played out, so there is still a chance that I may at least get my capital back. In the meantime it is important that I do not lose the lesson from that experience.”
Don’t believe in hype
Next up was Simon Brown, founder of Justonelap.com.
Brown told Moneyweb: “Way back, about 1998, I bought some shares in an IPO for Brainware, where I bought 20 000 shares at R1 each.
During the course of the dot com boom they ran to R6 but then the bubble burst. I did nothing as I was blinded by the bubble and the hype. This stock was going to the moon, and I would be on that bus. Most definitely.
However it continued to crash. Hit 1c and did a 50 to 1 consolidation and started to crash again.
Eventually it was taken over by Southern Electrical Company, a Namibian power company and the price still did nothing.
In 2013 the stock delisted and I received around R120 from my initial R20 000 investment. Not only was it 15 years of pain and a massive loss the money, it would have doubled a few times if I had just stuck it in the bank.
My lessons are simple, don’t believe the hype, any hype. Always remain skeptical.
Know when you’re wrong or beaten and exit.
Any selling price on the way down from R6 would have netted me more profit. Always have an exit plan / stop loss.”
No easy money
Karl Gevers had two tragic investment stories to share with us. Karl Gevers is an investment manager and head of research at Benguela Global.
“First one: When I was a student, I did not have enough money to invest in stocks, so I traded warrants (that had just become a big thing in SA). Gold stocks especially were very volatile, so the warrants would swing by massive amounts every day. I quickly doubled my money (operating out of the university library). But as volatility dried up, I held onto some warrants too long with time decay destroying any value.
Lessons learnt:
1. There is no quick way to make a buck… and derivatives are speculative and dangerous!
2. If you lose 50% of your capital, you need to make 100% to get back to the original level.
Second one: Some personal investments on the JSE that went bad are Transhex, BSI Steel and Chemspec. What all three have in common are that they are small, low-quality businesses with management trying and promising to turn the business around.
Lesson Learnt:
1. Cigar butt investing actually has a high risk of destroying capital because these businesses are generally cheap for a reason.
2. Rather focus on businesses that have strong competitive advantages which enable them to generate returns on their capital i.e. higher quality businesses.
3. Turnaround situations have a high risk of never materialising, or they take longer, requiring more shareholder capital.
4. Lack of liquidity is a significant risk when trying to exit the investment (this is more so in unlisted investments).
I now rather focus on investing more capital in high-quality businesses that might have less upside than some deep value situations, but are able to continuously generate returns.
We at Benguela put a lot of emphasis on the quality of a business. While we look at upside potential (valuation), we also include the quality dimension into our investment decision making to get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. Our top priority is to preserve capital.
Our investment process and philosophy have developed through experiences such as these mentioned above.
My biggest investment error was back in 2002, where I did not buy Capitec shares… Even though I worked in the finance department for six months while the share price was below R2. I missed out on a 200 bagger!”
No ifs, buts and maybes.
Finally Garth Mackenzie from Traders Corner shared this gem with Moneyweb:
I’ve just cashed up and closed the worst investment I have ever made. I thought I’d write about this experience to extract the lessons that I have learned, in the hope that whoever reads this article might take the lessons on board and avoid making the same mistakes that I did.
The investment was in a company called Dawn Properties in Zimbabwe. I made the investment in 2007 at the height of the boom times in the previous bull market. I worked at BoE Stockbrokers at the time, and we took a bunch of clients to Victoria Falls where we were presented to by one of the local Zimbabwean stockbroking firms that we’d partnered with. They lined up a great weekend for all of us and we were presented to by a number of investment industry experts and analysts who sold us the story of how undervalued Zimbabwean assets were under the abysmal government of President Robert Mugabe. The line of thinking was that Mugabe’s reign of power was dwindling and that even if he remained in power, his age counted against him and that the country was likely to see a brighter future.
The company I invested in – Dawn Properties – is a company that holds some of Zimbabwe’s finest tourism property assets. The investment case for buying this company was the fact that tourism would likely recover quickly if the political situation in Zimbabwe improved, and that the insurance replacement value of the assets on the balance sheet was nearly double what the market capitalisation of the entire company was. Hence I was buying the business well below the value of its tangible net asset value, never mind the potential upside if the tourism business in Zimbabwe recovered.
So I invested R500 000 into the shares of Dawn Properties and fastened my seatbelt for the ride.
Fast forward seven years and little has changed in Zimbabwe, particularly in the tourism sector. Mugabe still rules by hook or by crook and the economy of Zimbabwe remains stubbornly weak.
My investment in Dawn Properties has been illiquid and difficult to trade out of, but I have finally managed to exit the entire investment in the past week with a loss of R233 000 or 47% over seven years.
I maintain that the fundamental reasons for considering the investment in Dawn Properties in the first place remains reasonable. But what annoys me about the decision that I made in 2007 was that this was essentially a punt (gamble if you will) on a number of “ifs”, “buts” and “maybes” coming to fruition. These are not terms that should normally come into play when making sound investment decisions.
It was admittedly a gamble. And ultimately a gamble that has failed to pay off.
I was 27 years old at the time I made the investment. I’m 34 years old now. I still have plenty of time on my side to generate substantial wealth over my lifetime, so this loss is certainly not the end of the world.
What really bugs me about this however is that I should have known better and should have stuck to sound investment principles. Sound investment principles take a long-term view on a bunch of fairly high probability outcomes. No ifs, buts and maybes.
The loss is fine and I accept it. But what is really hard to swallow is the opportunity cost of this investment. There were several other opportunities to make safer, sound investments that would have yielded significantly better returns, even after the market crash of 2008 and 2009 is taken into consideration.
Imagine if I’d instead invested in Woolworths at R23.00 per share (up 250% since then), or Aspen at R37 per share (up 800% since then). These are just two examples of companies that have yielded solid returns and were sound investments back in 2007. There are many others.
A common line of thinking is that you can take greater risks when you’re young as you have more time to recover if things go wrong. This is actually nonse reasoning that people use far too often to make poor investment decisions with unnecessarily high risks. The counter argument to this is that you have time on your side when you’re young and therefore a slow and steady approach to building wealth has more time to work for you, and to consequently generate greater returns over time, with less need to take unnecessary risks.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/property/failures-of-a-successful-investor/