作为世界上第二大经济体，中国对美国统治地位的挑战包括把人民币推向类似美元的世界储备货币。中国货币能否达到足够的国际威望仍是个问题，美元自上世纪中叶取代英联邦英镑后就已成为世界上事实储备货币。

中国人民币可能会被国际货币基金组织授予特别提款权，获得这一权限的货币包括美元、欧元、英镑和日元。即使人民币获得这一权限，它要和作为世界储备货币的美元竞争还有很长的一段路要走。

近期事件，包括人民币突然的贬值2%和中国政府对其股票市场的干预，两者都是人民币在近期不能挑战美元统治地位的信号。

特别提款权的标准包括

纳入特别提款权篮子的两个主要标准是篮子货币在五年间拥有最大的出口价值和货币能自由使用。第一个要求保证只有在全球经济中占主导地位的货币才会被纳入，第二个要求保证只有在国际付款中广泛交易和使用的货币才会被纳入。

尽管中国在国际贸易中重要地位符合第一个标准。但是人民币是否符合第二个标准还不能明确。有人认为中国的汇率干预违反第二个标准。但是国际货币基金组织的策略、政策和审查部门的代表已经公布国际货币基金组织的自由使用概念是：“有别于是否自由浮动或者完全可兑换”。由于这个原因，中国对人民币价值的管理并不能把人民币排除在特别提款权储备货币之外。（更多请见：《储备货币简介》）

中国的近期干预

由于比预期低的经济增长，中国人民银行近期连续两天把人民币相对美元的价值降低大约2%。有些人认为这是中国中央银行为了刺激出口进行的汇率操控。无论如何，此举可能帮助人民币获得特别提款权的一篮子货币的资格。人民币已经松散的与美元汇率固定多年，最近的贬值实际上更符合市场估值。实际上，贬值受到国际货币基金组织的欢迎，表明了中国成为储备货币的目标不会受到影响。

尽管如此，另一些人担心中国政府的近期干预阻止大约4万亿美元市场的崩盘。国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，干预没有使人民币失去特别提款权的资格，但是她也说国际货币组织在做出最后决定之前仍然有许多工作要做。在股票市场干预之后，决定可能被推迟9个月，直到2016年9月。拉加德也声明说真正的问题是人民币什么时间被纳入，而不是是否纳入。

特别提款权和国际储备货币地位

中国被纳入特别提款权篮子将会带来以系列的好处，稳定货币和缓解政策制定者压力以抑制银行持有大量外汇储备的国内需求。

对中国来说，人民币的储备地位具有巨大的象征意义，但被纳入特别提款权货币篮子不会让它接近作为储备货币的美元。特别提款权的非美元货币现在只占世界各国央行外汇储备的2%。

使人民币成为美元真正的竞争者，中国需要做出许多重大的改变。美元已经在一定程度上通过其广泛的、开放的和可信的市场获得了主导地位。中国仍需证明它能提供一个相似的稳定透明的金融市场。而且其最近的市场干预表明这个国家要发张支持人民币成为储备货币的市场还需要很长的路要走。（更多信息《什么是国际货币基金组织的特别提款权》）

总结
中国很可能在明年获得国际货币基金组织对成为一个国际储备货币的批准，加入美元、欧元、英镑和日元的行列。但是这不能赋予它和其他货币一样的地位，尤其是美元。法定货币的国际吸引力取决于感知强度和发行国家和金融市场的信誉。中国近期股票市场的的干预损害了这个信誉，拖延了与美元成为全球杰出储备货币竞争对手的时间。

Chinese Yuan an Unlikely Reserve Currency

By Matthew Johnston | August 14, 2015

As the world's second largest economy, China's challenge to America’s dominance includes a push to set the yuan, officially called the renminbi (RMB), on a similar footing to the U.S. dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency. Whether the Chinese currency will ever reach the international prestige that the greenback now holds is a matter of speculation. The dollar has been the world's de facto reserve currency since displacing the British pound sterling around the middle of the last century.

China's yuan is likely to be granted inclusion by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into its special drawing rights (SDR) basket of reserve currencies that include the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen. But even if and when the yuan is included, it will still have a very long way to go to rival the dollar’s preeminence as the international reserve currency of choice.

Recent events, including a sudden 2% devaluation of the yuan and the Chinese government's intervention in its plummeting stock market both signal that the yuan will not be challenging the dollar’s dominance any time soon.

Criteria for SDR Inclusion

The two primary criteria for inclusion in the SDR basket are that issuing countries of basket currencies possess the greatest value of exports over a five-year period and that their currencies are freely usable. The first ensures that only the currencies of countries that play a dominant role in the global economy qualify for inclusion, while the second requirement ensures that only currencies widely traded and used for international payments will be included.

While China’s significant place in international trade meets the first criteria. But whether or not the yuan meets the second criterion is less clear. Some argue that China’s exchange-rate interventions violate this second criteria. But the Deputy of the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department has publicly stated that that the IMF's free-usability concept is “distinct from whether a currency is either freely floating or fully convertible.” For this reason, China’s management of the value of the yuan doesn’t exclude it from the IMF’s SDR reserve currency considerations. (For more, see: A Primer On Reserve Currencies.)

China’s Recent Interventions

Due to weaker-than-expected economic growth, The People's Bank of China recently devalued the yuan by almost 2% relative to the U.S. dollar for two consecutive days. Some argued the move was an act of currency manipulation by the Chinese central bank to boost exports. Regardless, the move may actually help the yuan gain acceptance into the SDR currency basket. The currency has been loosely pegged to the dollar for a number of years, and the latest devaluation is actually more consistent with a market-determined valuation. In fact, the devaluation was welcomed by the IMF, which made it clear that it would have no direct impact on China’s goal of earning reserve currency status.

Nonetheless, other concerns center on the Chinese government's recent intervention to halt a nearly $4 trillion stock market rout. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde indicated that the intervention did not disqualify the yuan from inclusion, but she did say that the IMF still needs to do significant amount of work before arriving at a final decision. After the stock-market intervention, that decision may be postponed another nine months, until September 2016. Lagarde has also publicly stated that the real question is when the Chinese currency will be included, rather than whether it will.

SDR Inclusion and International Reserve Status

China’s inclusion into the SDR basket will bring a number of benefits, stabilizing the currency and relieving pressure on policymakers to suppress domestic demand that its banks keep a sufficient level of foreign currency reserves on hand.

For China, the yuan's reserve status holds a high symbolic value, but being included in the SDR basket does not bring it that much closer supplanting the dollar as the the de facto international reserve currency. Non-dollar currencies in the SDR currently comprise only 2% of the total reserves of central banks around the world.

To make the yuan a real competitor with the U.S. dollar, China will need to make a number of significant changes. America has partly gained its dominance through its extensive, open and credible financial markets. China still needs to prove that it is capable of providing a stable and transparent environment for similar financial markets to flourish. And its recent market interventions reveal that the country still has a long way to go to develop the kind of financial markets that will support the yuan as a reserve currency. (Look deeper: What Are IMF Special Drawing Rights?)

The Bottom Line

China will likely earn the IMF’s official stamp of approval as an international reserve currency in the next year, joining the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen. But that will not necessarily give it equivalent status with those other currencies, especially the dollar. International desirability of a fiat currency depends on the perceived strength and credibility of the issuing nation’s government and financial markets. China’s recent stock market intervention hurt that credibility, delaying the ascension of the yuan as a true competitor with the U.S. dollar as the world’s preeminent reserve currency.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/081415/chinese-yuan-unlikely-reserve-currency.asp