黄金由于其在投资和消费领域重要的角色成为人们谈论最多的金属。即使黄金在发达国家已经不作为基础的货币使用,但是它对那些货币仍然有强劲的影响。此外,在外汇交易时其价值和货币的强度有很大的关联性。(相关阅读请见:《黄金:另一种货币》)
为了帮助阐述黄金和外汇交易之间的关系,考虑以下的五个重要方面:
1.黄金曾用于支持法定货币。
早在拜占庭帝国时期,黄金就用被作为合法清偿工具于支撑法定货币或者他们国家发行的各种货币。直到20世纪,黄金还被作为世界储备货币,直到1971年尼克松总统废止前美国都在使用黄金。(更多请见《黄金标准的重新审视》)
其使用的一个原因是它限制国家允许印刷货币的数量。这是因为,和现在一样,黄金的供应量有限。直到金本位制被废除,国家不能简单地印刷法定货币装门面,除非他们有相等数量的黄金。尽管金本位制不再用于发达世界,一些经济学家因为美元和其他货币的波动性认为我们应该回归到金本位制。
2.黄金被用于对冲通货膨胀
当其所在的国家发生高水平的通货膨胀时投资者通常购买大量的黄金。在通货膨胀期间黄金需求的上升是因为其固有价值和有限的供应。因为不能被稀释,黄金比其它形式的货币保存价值更高。(更多相关阅读请见《20世纪70年代的巨大通货膨胀》)
例如,在2011年4月,投资者担心法定货币的价值下跌使黄金的价格被驱动到令人吃惊的1500美元每盎司。这表明对世界市场货币缺乏信心和对未来经济稳定的预期是灰暗的。
3.黄金的价格影响进口和出口它的国家。
一个国家货币的价值和是和其进出口紧紧联系在一起的。当一个国家的进口多于出口时,其货币价值会下降。另一方面,当一个国家是净出口国时,其货币价值会上升。因此,一个黄金出口国或者有大量黄金储备的国家在黄金价格上升时其货币强度上升,因为这增加了这个国家的出口总额。(相关阅读请见《黄金怎么了?》)
4.购买黄金常常减少购买它的货币的价值。
当中央银行购买黄金,将会影响国内货币的供求并可能导致通胀。这很大程度上由于银行依靠印刷过多的货币购买黄金,并因此提供了过剩的法定货币供应。
另一方面,黄金价格上涨将会创造贸易盈余或者抵消贸易逆差。相反,进行大量进口国家的货币在黄金价格上涨时将不可避免的走弱。例如,专业生产黄金制品但是缺少自己黄金储备的国家,将会是大型的黄金进口国。因此,他们将最容易受到黄金价格上升的影响。
5.黄金价格经常用于衡量当地货币,但是也有例外。
许多人错误地把黄金当作衡量一个国家货币的明确代理。尽管黄金价格和法定货币价值之间有毋庸置疑的关系,但并不是像许多人假定的总是反比关系。
例如,如果有一个行业需要大量黄金进行生产,这将引起黄金价格上升。但是这可能对当地货币没有任何影响,在同时货币价值也可能上升。因此,尽管黄金价格可以经常被用于反映美元的价值,需要分析条件确定事实上是否是反比关系。
总结
黄金对世界上的货币有深远的影响。即使金本制已经被废除,黄金可以作为法定货币代替品的大宗商品,并可以作为通货膨胀的一个有效对冲。毫无疑问,黄金将在外汇交易市场继续发挥不可或缺的作用。因此,它是一种因其独特展示国际和地区经济健康的能力用来跟踪和分析的重要金属。
How Gold Affects Currencies
By Kalen Smith | May 16, 2011
Gold is one of the most widely discussed metals due to its prominent role in both the investment and consumer world. Even though gold is no longer used as a primary form of currency in developed nations, it continues to have a strong impact on the value of those currencies. Moreover, there is a strong correlation between its value and the strength of currencies trading on foreign exchanges. (For related reading, see Gold: The Other Currency.)
To help illustrate this relationship between gold and foreign exchange trading, consider these five important aspects:
1. Gold was once used to back up fiat currencies.
As early as the Byzantine Empire, gold was used to support fiat currencies, or the various currencies considered legal tender in their nation of origin. Gold was also used as the world reserve currency up through most of the 20th century; the United States used the gold standard until 1971 when President Nixon discontinued it. (For more, see The Gold Standard Revisited.)
One of the reasons for its use is that it limited the amount of money nations were allowed to print. This is because, then as now, countries had limited gold supplies on hand. Until the gold standard was abandoned, countries couldn't simply print their fiat currencies ad nauseum unless they possessed an equal amount of gold. Although the gold standard is no longer used in the developed world, some economists feel we should return to it due to the volatility of the U.S. dollar and other currencies.
2.Gold is used to hedge against inflation.
Investors typically buy large quantities of gold when their country is experiencing high levels of inflation. The demand for gold increases during inflationary times due to its inherent value and limited supply. As it cannot be diluted, gold is able to retain value much better than other forms of currency. (For related reading, see The Great Inflation Of The 1970s.)
For example, in April 2011, investors feared declining values of fiat currency and the price of gold was driven to a staggering $1,500 an ounce. This indicates there was little confidence in the currencies on the world market and that expectations of future economic stability were grim.
3.The price of gold affects countries that import and export it.
The value of a nation's currency is strongly tied to the value of its imports and exports. When a country imports more than it exports, the value of its currency will decline. On the other hand, the value of its currency will increase when a country is a net exporter. Thus, a country that exports gold or has access to gold reserves will see an increase in the strength of its currency when gold prices increase, since this increases the value of the country's total exports. (For related reading, see What Is Wrong With Gold?)
In other words, an increase in the price of gold can create a trade surplus or help offset a trade deficit. Conversely, countries that are large importers of gold will inevitably end up having a weaker currency when the price of gold rises. For example, countries that specialize in producing products made with gold, but lack their own gold reserves, will be large importers of gold. Thus, they will be particularly susceptible to increases in the price of gold.
4.Gold purchases tend to reduce the value of the currency used to purchase it.
When central banks purchase gold, it affects the supply and demand of the domestic currency and may result in inflation. This is largely due to the fact that banks rely on printing more money to buy gold, and thereby create an excess supply of the fiat currency.
5.Gold prices are often used to measure the value of a local currency, but there are exceptions.
Many people mistakenly use gold as a definitive proxy for valuing a country's currency. Although there is undoubtedly a relationship between gold prices and the value of a fiat currency, it is not always an inverse relationship as many people assume.
For example, if there is high demand from an industry that requires gold for production, this will cause gold prices to rise. But this will say nothing about the local currency, which may very well be highly valued at the same time. Thus, while the price of gold can often be used as a reflection of the value of the U.S. dollar, conditions need to be analyzed to determine if an inverse relationship is indeed appropriate.
The Bottom Line
Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is no doubt that gold will continue to play an integral role in the foreign exchange markets. Therefore, it is an important metal to follow and analyze for its unique ability to represent the health of both local and international economies. (This article explores the past, present and future of gold. For more, see The Midas Touch For Gold Investors.)
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/golds-effect-currencies.asp