美联储终于在万众期待中完成了加息，这是十年来的首次加息，而有些人却担心加息会影响美国的经济增长。美国金融危机后的恢复表现不佳，为悲观主义者提供了一些支持：尽管利率接近于零，美元长期处于低迷状态，失业率也有所下降，但美国的名义 GDP 增长仍徘徊在3.75%附近。美元加息后，情况会不会更糟？
瑞士信贷表达了不同的观点，认为美国的名义 GDP 增长率将在2016年第一季度增加至4%，并在2016年年底突破5.1%。（实质 GDP 增长率将在2016年达到2.7%，2015年第三季度的增长率为2.1%。）瑞士信贷首席经济学家 James Sweeney 对此很有信心，因为已经出现一些加息无法阻止的趋势。
Sweeney 表示：“即使在这种紧缩的条件下，经济也在加速。”这与他在2015年12月初的瑞士信贷量化会议中的观点相呼应。“美国低迷的经济状况已经开始恢复了。”
在大萧条后的五年中，收益都集中在能源和财政等金融部门。但在最后两年中，出现了不同景象。从劳动力市场开始，失业率逐渐下降，新设岗位数量骤增，并恢复至2007年金融危机之前的水平。
虽然计时工资的增长不甚明显，11月增长0.2%，10月增长0.4%，但名义劳动总收入，即所有劳动者的薪酬总额却有显著增长，自2003年以来的增长已超过了危机前的4.5%。
虽然收入没有明显增长，但美国人的消费却增加了。包括汽车和汽油在内的核心零售销量在11月增加了0.5%。但瑞士信贷分析家指出，如果所有的汽油销售都计算在内，核心零售销量的数值会更高。Sweeney 表示：“汽油销量占整体消费的2%，如果汽油价格下降50%，会产生极大的影响，数据就没这么好看了。”如果对油价的变化做出调整，消费支出的年化增长率会从2013年之前的4%增加到4.5%。
美国人的信贷也有所增加，2013年的家庭债务已减至10万亿美元，而如今已恢复至12万亿美元。瑞士信贷经济学家 Zoltan Pozsar 和 Xiao Cui 表示，虽然高信用评分消费者的信贷增长更快，但住房危机重灾区的债务也有所增加。分析家表示，信贷的恢复，是美国经济复苏的重要标志。
最后，在近六年中，由供应管理协会的非制造业采购经理人指数测评的美国国内服务业每个月都有所增长。Sweeney 表示，该版块已恢复了强劲势头。
很多趋势都表明经济增长的复苏进入了一个低频周期，这是一个好兆头，表明美国经济能够经受住加息的冲击。Sweeney 表示：“他们总是在重复同样的事，25、50甚至150个基点的利率增长不会扰乱经济增长的步伐。”
Fed Tightening Won’t Squeeze US Growth
The Federal Reserve’s long-anticipated rate hike yesterday –its first in 10 years — came amid worry from some that moving the federal funds rate up from zero could slow U.S. economic growth. The U.S.’s underwhelming post-financial crisis recovery provides some support for that pessimism: nominal GDP growth has averaged just 3.75 percent despite the benefit of a near-zero interest rates, a long-depressed dollar and a dropping unemployment rate. Might the situation turn worse with higher interest rates?
Credit Suisse has a different outlook. The bank predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 4 percent in the first quarter of 2016 and hit 5.1 percent by the end of that year. (Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.7 percent in 2016, up from 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015.) The bank is confident in that growth, says Chief Economist James Sweeney, because of the emergence of several economic trends that the Fed hike is unlikely to disrupt.
“We’re actually accelerating even with this tightening of conditions,” says Sweeney, echoing an argument he made at Credit Suisse’s 2015 Quantitative Conference in early December. “The underlying economic health of the U.S. has changed.”
In the five years following the Great Recession, gains were concentrated in certain pockets of the U.S. economy, such as the energy and the financial sectors. But in the last two years, a different picture has emerged. Starting with the labor market: In addition to the widely-reported steady declines in the unemployment rate, the number of job openings have jumped sharply to levels last seen pre-crisis, in 2007.
While hourly wage growth isn’t all that impressive—it was up 0.2 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October—total nominal labor income, or the sum of all of workers’ compensation, has seen more significant growth since 2013, rising above its post-crisis trend of 4.5 percent. Hourly wage growth, meanwhile, could see more meaningful increases if unemployment rates continue their downward trend.
Even without significant wage growth, Americans are spending more. Core retail sales — which exclude auto and some gas sales — rose 0.5 percent in November, beating the 0.4 percent consensus. But Credit Suisse analysts note that core retail sales figures could be even higher if all gas sales were excluded. “Given that gasoline sales are around 2 percent of our total consumption, if (the gas price) falls by 50 percent, that’s actually a big drag,” says Sweeney. “It pollutes the data.” If adjusting for the impact of gas prices, consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent, up from 4 percent before 2013.
Americans are also borrowing more. After falling to just under $10 trillion in 2013, total household debt is now above $12 trillion. An analysis by Sweeney and fellow Credit Suisse economists Zoltan Pozsar and Xiao Cui shows that although debt is growing faster among consumers with higher credit scores, the rising debt trend also includes borrowers in states hit hard by the housing crisis. The return of credit growth, say the analysts, “marks an important threshold” in the recovery of the U.S. economy.
Lastly, the U.S. domestic services sector, as measured by the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index, has expanded every month for nearly six years. The sector, says Sweeney, has shown “momentum that it hasn’t had in a long time.”
Many of the trends indicating improving economic growth move on a low-frequency cycle, which bode well for their likelihood to withstand any impact from Fed rate hikes. “They do the same thing for years in a row,” says Sweeney. “A 25 or 50 or 150 basis point change in the Fed funds rate is unlikely to disrupt these developments.”
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/fed-tightening-wont-squeeze-u-s-growth/#sthash.vHgyjdhn.dpuf