使股票风险增加的四个因素

Donna Fuscaldo

投资股票可以获得很高的回报，但是同时也面临着巨大的风险。在股票选择时的错误决定将导致最终的亏损。幸运的是，交易者有能辨别出与他们风险承受力不符的股票的方式。通过观察股票的受欢迎程度来判断其波动性，我们有4中方法能发现高风险股票。

一支正在受到大量关注的股票

成长型股票的诱惑是具有潜在的丰厚汇报。在低价购入下一个苹果公司的股票能使你成为千万富翁。但是不是只有你一个人抱有这种想法，这也是为什么很多成长型股票的价值很快被高估的原因。

这些股票不仅仅会出现自我修正，而且其下跌可能非常剧烈。你选择的股票价值被严重高估的一个信号是受到太多的关注，这些关注可能来自媒体、互联网和鸡尾酒会。如果一个公司在所有的乡村俱乐部被讨论，或者媒体正在争相采访，那么这就是该公司股票可能已经进入价值高估区域和将会崩溃的信号。

在进行个股投资时，风险来自很多方面。例如，购买价格就可能是一个风险信号。有学说认为如果你在购买股票时的价格越高，那么你投资获利的机会就会越小。如果购买股票的价格便宜或者低于股票的真实价值，那么面对的风险将会减少。一些风险来自波动。股票的上下波动越大，其风险越大。如果你在低价格时购买股票，那么对波动的担忧将会减小。

你变得情绪依赖

投资不是门精确的自然科学，它受到情绪的影响。大量资金的利害关系很容易受到情绪影响，这可能使你出现巨大亏损。即使你购买了世界上最好的股票，也需要出售才会获利。在获利时或者股票不起作用时你需要出售该股票，但是由于情绪依赖你到最后你还是想继续持有该股票。毕竟一只股票不可能永远上涨，你不想出售这只股票的原因可能是产生了过分依赖。如果你坚持希望一只股票会出现你预期的结果，那么也可能出现风险。

收入和营业额下降

投资者一般不会投资那些不能盈利或者没有良好收入的公司，除非他们在进行转机题材投资。但是如果一个公司宣布盈利和收入开始下降，那么就应该警惕对该公司股票投资风险的出现。毕竟，盈利预期的巨大反差是导致股票价格下跌的最有力因素。

即使该公司收入平稳，还会有其他迹象能表明公司将面临风险。以营业额为例。如果高管跳槽，或者更严重的CEO或者CFO突然辞职，那么应该可以考虑抛出持有的该公司股票了。

总结

股票选择对专业人员来说也十分困难，这也是投资者在投资中需时刻注意风险增大的原因。如果一只股票价格正在下跌而且价格昂贵波动大，那么投资者进行投资时将会面临更大的风险。如果公司的收入正在呈现下降趋势或者正面临人才流失，那么也会出现同样的情况。

4 Things That Make a Stock a Risky Bet

By Donna Fuscaldo

Investing in the stock market can be rewarding but that doesn’t mean it isn’t fraught with risk. Choose the wrong stock or stocks to put your money into and it can end up being a losing proposition. Thankfully, investors have ways to spot a stock that doesn’t match their risk tolerance. From looking at the popularity of the stock to checking out its volatility, here’s four ways to identify a risky stock. 

The Stock is Getting a Lot of Attention

One of the allures of growth stocks is that there’s the potential for a handsome reward. Get in on the next Apple Inc. (AAPL) at the bottom and you can end up a multi-millionaire. But you are not alone in dreaming of that outcome, which is why many growth stocks can quickly become overvalued. And owning an overvalued stock can be quite risky because there’s nowhere to go but down.

Not only is it likely the stock will correct itself but the fall may be pretty hard. One telltale sign that your stock is getting too overvalued is the attention it’s getting in the press, on the Internet and at cocktail parties. If XYZ Company is all anyone at the country club can talk about, or the media is falling over each other to get interviews with the company, then it is a sign the stock may move into overvalued territory and potentially implode if it doesn’t perform to perfection.

The Stock Price is Expensive or Volatile

When it comes to investing in individual stocks, risks comes in many directions. For example, the purchase price can be a sign of risk. There’s a school of thought that says if shares are expensive when you make your purchase then there is a greater chance you won’t make a return on the investment. If you get in on the stock at a cheap price or below the true value of the stock than the less risk you face. Same goes with volatility. The more ups and downs the stock experiences, the riskier it is. And it doesn’t matter if you purchased the stock at a low price when it comes to risk from volatility.

You’ve Become Emotionally Attached

Investing isn’t an exact science nor is it emotionless. With so much money at stake it is easy to let emotion rule, which can end up costing you big time. Even if you purchased the best stock in the world there always comes a point where it is time to move on and sell. Perhaps it’s time to take some profit or maybe it’s because the investment never worked out, but the last thing you want to do is hold on to a stock because of some attachment. After all shares can’t go up forever and you don’t want to miss out on a healthy return just because you are too attached to the stock. A stock can also be risky if you keep holding on in the hopes that things will eventually work out.

Earnings Decline, Turnover Among the Ranks

Investors aren’t drawn to deadweight companies that can’t churn out a profit or don’t have strong earnings growth unless they are investing in turnaround stories. But if your rock star of a company starts reporting a decline in earnings and revenue growth it should raise red flags about the riskiness of the investment. After all, nothing is going to send a stock plummeting more than a big earnings miss.

Even if the company’s earnings are sound, there are other signs to look out for that things may be amiss within the organization. Take turnover for an example. If senior managers are heading for greener pastures; or worse, the chief executive or chief financial officer step down unexpectedly it may be time to think about getting out of the stock. 

The Bottom Line

Stock picking can be hard to do even for the professionals, which is why investors have to be on the lookout for any increased risk out of their investments. If the stock is the talk of the town or is pricey and volatile, then investors may face more risk. The same applies if earnings are on a downward trend or the company is facing an employee exodus.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020216/4-things-make-stock-risky-bet.asp