Rick Rieder 2016年5月9日
美联储上周没采取行动，继续对当前国际经济、金融和通胀状况采取观望态度。
那么根据美联储当前的态度，你可能会怀疑它什么时候会再次开始利率正常化进程呢？准确的判断美联储的政策路径需要关注下面两个因素。
国内经济“警示信号”
换句话说，观察企业利润、就业增长和通货膨胀。标准普尔500指数中企业正在经历第六个月的利润下降。这将对未来资本支出和就业的增长前景有深远影响。事实上，我很早之前就指出了我们会在今年下半年经历就业增长下降，因为企业收益降低使工资降低的转换通常滞后6个月。在这种情况下，我认为今年将最多出现一个加息决定。
国外环境，尤其是中国
作为判断全球金融体系和中国金融环境潜在压力的一个工具，观察美元能发现美联储任何举动的线索。美元会误导美联储忽视国际经济发展、风险和金融环境，好像美国经济能完全免疫境外干扰一样。
因此，除了关注国内传统劳动力市场增长和通货膨胀因素，美联储还需要关注境外风险。这也是近期美联储更加温和的原因，这显然考虑到了美元在全球的重要性、带给国际贸易伙伴的压力和中国经济转型中面临的挑战。观察下面的图表，研究美联储主席耶伦关于经济前景的讲话。
鉴于中国对全球经济动态增长的重要性和其之前进行对美元汇率限制，2014年和2015年美元的增值对中国的经济增长率增加压力并不奇怪。事实上，美元增值是2015年末和2016年初金融市场的关键断层线。
由于美元适度的稳定和其他央行积极的应对政策，全球金融环境压力在近几个月得到缓解。此外，大宗商品价格的复苏预示着中国和其他新兴经济体正在恢复稳定增长。展望未来，美联储谨慎态度将和其他因素一起保持美元相对稳定，或者至少能防止美元过度上涨。这将能确保中国和其他新兴市场拥有更好的经济增长条件。
现在，这些因素都表明美联储至少在未来几个月不会采取行动，利率正常化的步伐将会放缓，今年美联储可能只进行一次或者不进行加息。同时，准确预测下一次加息将需要密切关注国际经济环境和国内经济断层线。
To Correctly Predict the Fed’s Policy Path, Watch This
By Rick Rieder May 9, 2016 — 7:47 PM EDT
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy unchanged last week, continuing a “wait-and-see” approach appropriate for today’s global economic, financial and inflationary conditions.
So, with the Fed on the right track for now, you may be wondering: When will the central bank again start the process of rate normalization? Accurately judging the Fed’s policy path will require keeping an eye on two factors.
Domestic economic “warning signs”
In other words, watch corporate profits, jobs growth and inflation. Corporations in the S&P 500 Index are in the process of printing their sixth consecutive quarterly earnings decline. This has profound implications for forward growth potential in capital expenditures and hiring. In fact, I’ve long argued that we’re likely to see a weakening in employment growth in the second half of the year, as reduced earnings tend to translate into lower payrolls with a roughly six-month lag. If this does occur, the Fed may have difficultly hiking rates, especially if inflation remains weak. In that scenario, I would expect no more than one Fed policy rate hike this year, as labor market strength has been the highlight of recent economic performance.
Conditions abroad, and particularly in China
For clues to any Fed move, watch the U.S. dollar (USD), as a gauge of potential stress in the global financial system, and financial conditions in China. It would be misguided for the Fed to disregard international economic developments, risks, and financial conditions, as if the U.S. economy were completely immune to disruptions from outside its borders.
So, in addition to worrying about its traditional domestic considerations of labor market growth and inflation, the Fed is understandably concerned with risks from abroad. This is evident in the more dovish language coming from the Fed recently that clearly accounts for the importance of the dollar in the global framework, the stresses to international trade partners, as well as the challenges that China’s economy faces in its transition. See the chart below, examining the language in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s economic outlook speeches.
Given the importance of China to the global growth dynamic, and the country’s previous effective peg to the USD, it’s not surprising that USD strengthening in 2014 and 2015 placed great pressure on China’s growth rate. Indeed, dollar strength has been a key fault line stressing financial markets in late-2015 and early-2016.
Global financial condition stress has eased in recent months due to a modest stabilization in the USD and continued aggressive policy response from foreign central banks. In addition, the recovery of commodity prices is indicative of stabilizing growth in China and much of the emerging world. Looking forward, Fed caution, along with other factors, is likely to keep the dollar fairly stable, or at least keep it from rising excessively. This would go some distance in keeping China and emerging market (EM) growth in a better place.
For now, these factors suggest that the Fed will remain on pause for the next few months at least, the pace of rate normalization will be slow and the central bank will probably be limited to one, or even no, hikes this year. In the meantime, correctly predicting when the next hike will take place will require paying close attention to global financial conditions along with domestic economic fault lines.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/050916/correctly-predict-feds-policy-path-watch.asp