价值投资的关键性的问题是：

1. 在投资期间，收益和分红的增长率是多少？
2. 有什么样的风险？投资收益的可靠程度是多少？
3. 管理策略是否会有效施行？

上面这些因素没有一个可以肯定回答。我们需要在考虑了各种因素之后做出最佳评估。

增长

过往业绩

• 每股的历史收益是否呈现上升势头？
• 每股历史价格是否一直在上升？
• 股本回报率是否一直在升高？
• 投资回报是否高到足以支撑扩大投资？

自由现金流

• 企业的健康运营需要多少资金支撑？
o 这笔资金从何而来？
o 来源于企业的留存收益？
o 来源于新股发行？
o 还是通过增加债务？
• 是否存在留存收益支撑企业健康运营？
o 是否有充足的折旧备抵资金支持现有资产的替换？
o 资本支出是用于支撑现有业务还是用于新的投资？
• 企业是否可以产生巨大盈利？它的发展是否依赖于大量的资本支出？
• 企业的发展是否依赖于大规模并购？它有什么样的并购历史？
• 企业的实际税率是否会发生改变？它以后是否需要支付更多的税收？
• 红利是否维持稳定增长？

收益的可靠性

• 企业是否可以从老客户身上获得固定收益？还是需要不断的为自己的产品和服务开发新客户？
• 企业的产品属于快速使用、需要不断订购的易耗品还是几年更换一次的耐用品？
• 企业是否不断的给合作企业或者客户提供售后服务？服务费多久收取一次？

新市场

• 企业的业绩增长来源于它不断的进军新市场？
o 它是否有能力扩张到新兴市场？
o 新城市？
o 新的国家？
o 国际市场？
• 它在新兴市场是否拥有很高的品牌认知度？

利润空间

利润空间取决于企业与新老对手的竞争能力。任何价格折扣和价格战争都需要引起警惕。

消费垄断

这深受巴菲特的喜爱。他不断的找寻那些具有持续竞争优势的企业：

• 企业是否存在消费垄断？
• 企业是否拥有强大的品牌？是否受到消费者喜爱？
• 消费者对产品或服务的依赖程度如何？
• 企业是否拥有竞争者难以取得的特殊技术或知识？
• 企业的知识是否受专利或版权保护？
• 企业是否拥有竞争者难以复制的分销渠道？
• 企业是否可以根据通胀提高价格？

威胁

• 新崛起的竞争者是否对企业构成威胁？
• 新技术是否构成威胁？
• 企业是否可以维持竞争力水平？
o 研究与开发经费是否充足？
o 研究与开发成果如何？
o 新产品？
o 新专利？
• 可替代的分销渠道是否构成威胁？
• 可替代产品是否构成威胁？
• 是否存在间接竞争者？其他的行业领域也可能有同样的需求。

风险

• 企业是否过度的依赖于单一产品、顾客、供应商、某一个人或借债资金？
• 企业是否会受到政治变革影响？
o 新的税收或补助金？
o 垄断法？
o 监管或是消费者权益保护的加强？
o 环境立法、劳动法规、进口义务？
• 企业和员工的关系如何？

管理层诚信

• 管理层对股东资金的负责程度如何？企业做出的决策都是以股东利益为出发点的吗？
• 管理层是否对新项目或并购做出记录？
• 企业股东是否参与企业事物？还是停留在“需要知道”的基础上？
• 最大股东是否有别的计划？他们是否企图创造出一个家族企业？

管理技巧

• 员工是否参与企业管理？
• 企业是否有利润分红、股权分配等激励机制？
• 是否有卓越的管理环境？
• 管理层是否拥有行业经验？
• 管理层是如何看待新项目的？他们是否知道自己的不足？他们是否远离了企业的根基？

财务管制

• 是否有强大的财务管制？
• 管理层有成本意识还是过度奢侈？如果一个企业在经营惨淡之时宣布削减成本，那么它在经营良好的几年通常没有关注成本。

Value Investing

The critical questions in value investing are:
1. At what rate will earnings (and dividends) grow over the investment period?
2. What is the risk? How reliable are earnings?
3. Can management be trusted to perform?
None of these factors can be answered with certainty, we have to make our best estimate after considering a number of factors.
Growth
Past Performance
• Do historic earnings (per share) show a strong upward trend?
• Do historic sales (per share) show a strong upward trend?
• Has management consistently achieved a high Return on Equity?
• Is the return from new investments high enough to justify expansion?
Free Cash Flow
• How much capital is needed to fund future growth?
o Where will this capital come from?
o Out of retained earnings?
o Out of new stock issues?
o Through increased debt?
• Are retained earnings available to fund growth?
o Are depreciation provisions adequate to fund the replacement of existing assets?
o Is new capital expenditure required just to retain existing business or is it available for new investment?
• Is the business a cash cow? Or is new growth dependent on large capital expenditures?
• Is growth dependent on large acquisitions? What is the company's track record with acquisitions?
• Is the company likely to experience changes in its effective tax rate? Will it pay a higher rate of tax in the future?
• Have dividends been maintained and regularly increased?
Income Reliability
• Does the company receive regular income from repeat business or does it continually have to find new customers for its products and services?
• Are the products consumable, quickly used up and reordered, or does the company sell durables that will not be replaced for a number of years?
• Does the company provide a repeat service to business or private customers? How regular are the service payments?
New Markets
• Is the growth of the company dependent on it expanding away from its home base into new markets?
o Has it proved that it has the capability to expand into new markets?
o New cities?
o New states?
o International markets?
• Does it have high brand awareness in the new markets?
 
Profit Margins
Profit margins are dependent on the company's ability to withstand competition from existing and new competitors. Any evidence of product discounting or price wars should set the alarm bells ringing.
Consumer Monopoly
This is Warren Buffett's favorite. He looks for companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage:
• Does the company have a consumer monopoly?
• Does the company own strong brands that can withstand competition? Are retailers obliged to carry these brands?
• How reliant are customers on the product or service?
• Does the company have special skills or knowledge that are difficult for competitors to acquire?
• Is the company's knowledge protected by patents or copyright?
• Does the company own a distribution channel that is difficult for competitors to replicate?
• Can the company raise prices in line with inflation?
Threats
• Is there a threat from new competitors?
• Is there a threat from new technology?
• Is the company maintaining its competitive position?
o Is there sufficient spending on research and development?
o Is research and development producing results?
o New products?
o New patents?
• Is there a threat from alternative distribution channels?
• Is there a threat from substitute products?
• Are there indirect competitors? Other industries that may fill the same need?
Risk
• Is the company overly reliant on a single product?
• Is the company overly reliant on a single customer?
• Is the company overly reliant on a single supplier?
• Is the company overly reliant on a single individual?
• Is the company overly reliant on debt funding?
• Will the company be affected by any political changes?
o New taxes or subsidies?
o Monopoly legislation?
o Increased regulation or consumer protection?
o Environmental legislation?
o Labor regulation?
o Duties on imports?
• How are the companies relations with its employees?
Management Integrity
• How responsible are management in dealing with shareholders funds? Are decisions  always made in the interests of shareholders?
• What is management's track record with new projects or acquisitions?
• Do management involve shareholders in the business or do they work on a "need to know" basis?
• Does a major shareholder have another agenda? Are they trying to create a family dynasty?
Management Skill
• Do management involve employees in the business?
• Is there adequate profit participation and share incentives?
• Is there a climate of management excellence?
• Do management have proven industry experience?
• How have management fared with new ventures? Do they know their own limitations or have they strayed far from their industry base?
Financial Controls
• Are there strong financial controls?
• Is management cost-conscious or extravagant? A company that announces cost cuts after a poor performance has often taken its eye off costs during the good years.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/value_investing.php