使用交易指标

根据价格和成交量图决定交易方向。所有的交易指标都是建立在价格走势图上的，它们能够突出显示价格和成交量行为，却不能取代原始图表上的所有信息。当你总结数据的时候，为了突出主要的，总会忽略一些次要的——所以，交易指标不能展现出全部数据。交易指标有下面两种主要作用：

1. 充当筛选股票的过滤器；
2. 在你详细研究价格/成交量走势图之前充当交易执行摘要。

图表反映一切

你会经常听到技术分析师重复同样的口头禅：图表反映一切——所有的市场信息都被反映在当前价格上。我认为，市场通常需要时间来对新消息做出反映。我们不是与一台巨大的可以检测并分析出市场上细微变化的超级计算机做交易。市场是受大众的情绪所驱动，这种情绪不仅会对极端事件迅速做出回应，而且会随着时间的推移发生改变。个人行为在市场中不受欢迎：市场受群体心理支配。

经济

通过对市场情况的评估，你可以学会预测市场走势的大趋势。研究市场的总体情况，尤其是驱动市场价格的货币供给。如果没有钱买股票，价格就会下降。同样，如果市场充斥着金钱，价格有可能上涨。

预测

避免对市场走势进行预测。价格任何时候都有可能上升或下降——只是概率不同。当你对走势做出预测，你就有可能忽视那些证明你判断错误的信号。你可以通过同时列举出熊市或牛市中做多和做空的信号来消除这种倾向。

不是一门严密的科学

在交易市场中，我们永远不会100%的知道一个特定的形态或一系列事件之后的结果。我们所能期望的最好情况就是对任何结果的预测达到80%的正确率。也就是说，不确定情况的发生概率至少为20%。我的方法是得出每一种结果的百分比，但这也意味着某种程度上的准确。大多数情况下，是不可能达到的。而相关的术语则更显示出大概性：“这是一个很强的信号”，“这可能是”，“预计将会”，“这不可能”等等。需要记住的是，我们也会遇到市场处于均衡状态的情况。
分析师被分为三个时间段：短期，中期和长期。当一个时间段给出交易信号的时候，另外一个可能不确定。很明显，当三个时间段同时给出交易信号的时候，我们的成功就有很大概率。

一个简单的公式

市场是一个动态系统。我常常把交易比作一场军事行动，不是因为其对立的性质，而是由于其复杂性、连续的不确定性、冲突的情报并有可破坏最完美的计划。充分地准备，并为意外留有空间。这个公式很简单：在成功概率大时交易，并采用适当的风险资金管理——你就会成功。

My Strategy
Using Indicators
Always base decisions on the price/volume chart. All an indicator does is summarize the information already visible on the chart. While useful for highlighting patterns in price and volume behavior, indicators can never replace the depth of information on the original chart. When you summarize data, you sacrifice some of the attributes in order to highlight others — so an indicator never gives the full picture. Indicators have two main purposes:
1. To act as a filter when screening stocks; and
2. To act as a form of executive summary before you examine the price/volume chart in detail.
Do The Charts Discount Everything?
You will often see technical analysts repeating the mantra: the charts discount everything — and all information available to the market is reflected in the current price. I believe that the market often takes time to react to new data. We are not dealing with a vast super-computer that can detect and analyze the full implications of a minute change in market conditions. The market is driven by mass psychology and pulses with the ebb and flow of human emotions. Emotions may respond rapidly to extreme events, but normally change gradually over time. Individuals are seldom comfortable acting alone: the market is dominated by a vast herd instinct.
The Economy
By appraising yourself of market conditions you can learn to anticipate the broad movement of the market. Study general market conditions, especially the supply and demand for money, which drives market prices. If there is no money to buy stocks, prices will fall. Likewise, if the market is awash with money, prices are likely to rise.
Predictions
Try to avoid making predictions. The market can go up or down at any time — it is only the probability (of each move) that varies. When you make predictions, you may lock yourself into a position and be less open to evidence that you are wrong. Attempt to eliminate bias by presenting both possible signals (bull and bear) wherever practical.
 
Not An Exact Science
We never know the outcome of a particular pattern or series of events in the market with 100 per cent certainty. The best that we can hope to achieve is a probability of around 80 per cent for any particular outcome. That means something unexpected will occur at least one in five times.

My approach is to assign probabilities to each possible outcome. Assigning actual percentages would imply a degree of precision which, most of the time, is unachievable. Terms used are more general: "this is a strong signal"; "this is likely"; "expect this to follow"; "this is less likely to occur"; "this is unlikely"; and so on. Bear in mind that there are times, especially when the market is in equilibrium, when we may face several scenarios with fairly even probabilities.

Analysis is also separated into three time frames: short, intermediate and long-term. While one time frame may be clear, another could be uncertain. Obviously, we have the greatest chance of success when all three time frames are clear.
A Simple Formula
The market is a dynamic system. I often compare trading to a military operation, not because of its oppositional nature, but because of the complexity, the continual uncertainty, the conflicting intelligence reports, and the element of chance that can disrupt even the best made plans. Prepare thoroughly, but allow for the unexpected. The formula is simple: trade when probabilities are in your favor and apply proper risk (money) management — and you will succeed.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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