巴菲特 VS股利

巴菲特和普通人的不同之处在于，他购买了整个公司而不是仅仅几只股票！如果他没有买入整个公司，那么他会买入足够的股票从而获得董事会席位。他对公司的股息政策拥有控制权（至少拥有影响力），如果他愿意，他可以支配公司所有的收益；所以，他对自由现金流的看法和你我不一样。我们不得不对公司的股利政策以及董事的诚信满意——为了股东的利益，他们不会改变股利政策。

因此，我们对股票的估值需要结合投资期间的预期股息以及投资结束时所获得的收益。

收益可以伪造

现有的收益模型是基于公司对外宣称的收益。任何一位在过去几年中关注金融板块的读者都可以列举出一系列关于公司夸大收益或资产负债表外交易掩盖公司负债。即使公司遵循会计准则，它在如何报告收益方面也享有高度的自由性。准则本身就是政治化的产物，而不是那种可以准确反映公司业绩以及经济状况的纯粹性学术行为。同时，财务报表也不能反映公司的现金流，尤其是那些快速发展的公司。为了刺激公司的销售情况，账目利润有可能与额外的固定资产或周转资金捆绑在一起。管理部门在公布财务报表方面也不断的面临者压力。如果业绩下滑，他们会试图向股东隐瞒。通常，股东是最后一个知道公司破产消息。

但你不可以伪造股利

股利是以现金的形式支付给股东，它反映了公司产生自由现金流的能力并且不能被伪造或操纵。不论财务报表上显示的是什么，如果企业的银行账户上没有自由现金流，那么企业就无法分发股利。同时，如果偿贷成本限制了公司资源的有效利用，那么企业就不可能有充足的股利。

股利同时也反映了公司管理层的诚信度：比如公司会以诸如“新的机遇”等一系列空洞的言辞来限制股利分发。记住一句谚语：“双鸟在林不如一鸟在手”。

不分发股利的公司

如果公司不分发股利，那么我们所需要的就是估算投资期结束后的股价：

我们需要预先了解下面的一些基本要素：

• 一个永远不支付股利的公司的价值为零。
• 股票具有价值的唯一原因是对未来的股利预期。
• 只有那些不分发股利的成长股具有价值：股东希望在将来收获股利。
• 股利的收获期越长，投资的风险越大。
* 我用“股利”这个术语来大概囊括公司给股东分发的一系列可以转换为现金的东西：股票的回购、现金的分发或者是企业解体之后的可出售资产。

影响股利的因素

有以下三个变量影响现金流：

• 接下来一年的预期股利；
• 股利的未来预期增长；
• 投资期结束后的预期股价。

影响投资价值的三个变量：

• 诸如政府债券等无风险投资的预期收益率；
• 决定投资净收益的税收情况；
• 达到最低投资收益的安全系数。

现金流

下一年的预期股利

最简单的方法就是使用分析师的预测，其中你可以有多种选择：你既可以选择可靠的分析师的预测，也可以采纳公众对收益的预测。如果你有时间和专业知识，你可以自己进行预测。

股利的未来预期增长

这是一个关键问题：长期投资的股利增长率如何？该增长率是决定股票价值的唯一因素。不幸的是，由于存在太多的未知，没有人可以对未来的股利收益做出准确的预期。我们只能够在综合考虑各种主要风险的情况下努力做出最符合实际的预期。

股票投资期结束后的预期售价

股票投资结束后的股票售价（终端价值）有下列两个变量计算得出：

• 股票销售时的预期股利；
• 股票再销售之后的预期股利收益。

下一年的预期股利是根据当前股利以及预期增长率计算得出。预期股利应该与当前股利相似——除非当前市场环境很不稳定或者未来增长率会逐渐下降。

无风险收益率

无风险收益率，是指一个正常的市场中政府债券等长期的无风险投资所带来的收益率。你可以根据过去10年的债券收益推测出预期收益率。同时，你需要考虑通货膨胀是否会对长期利率带来影响。通货膨胀和预期长期利率应该已经体现在当前的证券收益中。需要记住的是，证券和股票类似，对好消息和坏消息都会过度反应。

税收情况

税收在以下几个方面影响你的投资收益：

边际税率

整个投资过程中，你都需要考虑边际税率。边际税率是针对额外收入的税率（你需要付的最高税率）最安全的假设是，你的平均边际税率与最高税率相等，但它也有可能为零。

股息收入税

投资人所需缴纳的股息收入税可以被其投资公司所缴纳的税收抵消。有些国家不承认这一税收政策。它受到以下两个因素影响：

• 公司是否会缴纳股息收入税？这取决于公司的海外收益以及公司所在地的收入所得税水平。
• 在你的投资期间，公司的税率可能是多少？
如果公司不缴纳股息收入税，那么它就相当于零。

资本收益税

一些国家对投资人的全部收益征税（低税率），而另外一些国家只针对资本收入的一部分征收边际税率（澳大利亚征收50%资本收入税）。股息计算器并没有把损失计算在内。某些情况下，亏损可能会抵消未来资本收益。

安全边际

Benjamin Graham认为你应该首先专注于投资的安全性：至少要保证自己可以收回资金并获得无风险投资的收益率。股票的收益变化率很大，因此应该有安全边际的存在：你的年预期收益率可能是20%，但是如果年收益率下降到2%呢？你仍然可能达到自己既定的最低收益率吗？考虑到风险的存在，企业的风险越大，所需要的安全边际也就越大。

通常，我将那些成熟的、拥有合理的股利分配政策的公司比作摇钱树：利用无风险利率计算股利收益（投资期通常为15~20年）。如果预期股利的当前价值超过了市价，那么就意味着此次投资拥有健康的安全边际。

Warren Buffett v. Dividends

The difference between Warren Buffett and the man in the street is that he buys the whole company and not just a few shares! If he doesn't buy the whole company he buys sufficient to get a seat on the board. He has control (or at least influence) over the dividend policy of the company, and can distribute the entire earnings of the company if he so chooses; so his view of Free Cash Flow is different to yours and mine. We have to be content with the dividend policy of the company and the integrity of directors - that they will not change the dividend policy unless in the interest of stockholders.
We should therefore base our valuation of a stock on the expected flow of dividends over the investment period plus the expected proceeds from sale of the investment at the end of the period.
You can Fake Earnings
Existing earnings-based models are based on company-declared earnings. Any reader of the financial pages over the last few years should be able to cite a string of reported cases where listed companies over-stated earnings and/or disguised debt levels through off-balance-sheet structures.
Even when adhered to, accounting standards allow a fair degree of latitude in how companies report earnings. The standards themselves are the result of a political process, rather than a purely academic exercise as to what method most accurately reflects performance and financial position. Reported earnings also do not reflect available cash flow, especially with growing companies. Accounting profits may be tied up in additional fixed assets and working capital required to support new sales.
Management are constantly under pressure to deliver results. If they fail, they often attempt to hide this from stockholders. When a company fails, stockholders are often the last to know.
But you can't Fake Dividends
Dividends are paid in hard cash. They reflect a company's ability to generate free cash flow and cannot be disguised or manipulated. Whatever accounting earnings may state, if there is no cash in the bank account, the company cannot pay dividends. Also, if debt servicing cost strain company resources, there is unlikely to be sufficient cash for dividends.
Dividends also reflect the integrity of management. If cash available for distribution is retained by the company, stockholders are entitled to a full explanation; not just empty rhetoric about "new opportunities". Remember the old proverb: "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

Companies that do not Distribute Dividends
Where a company does not issue dividends - all we need to calculate is the expected exit price at the end of the investment period.
We need to recognize a few basics first:
• An operating company that will never pay dividends* to shareholders is worth zero.
• The only reason that a stock has value is the expectation of future dividends*.
• Growth stocks that do not distribute dividends only have value because shareholders expect them to be able to pay dividends* in the future.
• The longer the time period before shareholders can expect to receive dividends*, the greater the risk.
* I use the term "dividend" loosely to include any distribution that delivers cash to shareholders: Share buy-backs and distributions of cash or saleable assets on the break-up of a company are two other forms of distribution that achieve the same end.
The Dividend Approach
There are three variables that affect the cash flow:
• Expected dividends in the next year;
• Expected future growth in dividends;
• Expected sale value at the end of the investment period.
And three variables that affect the value of the investment:
• The rate of return expected on risk-free investments such as government bonds;
• Our tax position, which determines our net cash return from the investment; and
• The margin of safety required to ensure that we achieve our minimum rate of return.
These variables are incorporated in the Dividend Value Calculator.
Cash Flow
Expected Dividends in the Next Year
The simplest method is to use an analyst's forecast, of which there are many available. Find a reliable analyst or use consensus earnings forecasts.
Only create your own forecast if you have time and the necessary expertise.
Expected Future Growth in Dividends
This is the critical question: At what rate are earnings (and dividends) likely to grow over the (long-term) investment period? The expected rate of growth is the biggest single determinant of a stock's value. Unfortunately no one can predict earnings growth with certainty, there are too many unknowns lying in wait for us.
We have to make our best estimate, considering the major risk factors. See Value Investing for more detail.
Expected Sale Value at the End of the Investment Period
The expected sale value (or terminal value) at the end of the investment period is calculated using two variables:
• the expected dividends at the date of sale; and
• the expected dividend yield on which the stock will be sold.
The expected dividend in the next year is calculated by compounding current dividends by the projected growth rate.
The expected future dividend yield should be similar to the existing yield - unless current market conditions are unusual, or the future growth rate is expected to decline over time. It is normally best to adopt a conservative approach and use a higher future dividend yield.
Risk-free Rate of Return
The risk-free rate is the yield on long-term, risk-free investments such as government bonds, in a normal market.
Take a look at the yield on 10 year bonds over the last decade and decide what the expected rate of return will be in a normal market. Consider whether there is likely to be any future change in the long-term rate of inflation.
Inflation and future interest rate expectations should already be factored into current bond yields, but remember that bond markets tend to over-react to good and bad news, similarly to stocks.
Tax Position
Your tax position affects the net return that you receive on your investments. There are three major influences:
Marginal Tax Rate
You need to estimate your average marginal tax rate over the life of the investment. Your marginal tax rate is the rate of tax you will pay on an extra dollar of income (ie. the top rate of tax that you pay). It is often safest to assume that your average marginal rate is equal to the top tax rate, but it could be as low as zero.
Franking Credits
Franking credits allow taxpayers to offset tax paid by the company against their personal tax liability. Some countries do not recognize franking credits.
Franking credits on dividends will be influenced by two factors:
• Will the company be in a position to distribute fully-franked dividends? This depends on the amount of foreign income and the level of tax paid on local income.
• What is the likely company tax rate over the investment period?
If no franking credits are available, then the rate is equivalent to zero percent.
Capital Gains Tax
Some countries tax investors on capital gains. Capital gains in some countries are fully taxed but at a lower rate, while other countries tax only a portion of capital gains (Australia taxes 50% of capital gains) but at normal marginal rates of tax.

NoteThe Dividend Value Calculator does not recognize credits on capital losses. In some circumstances capital losses may be offset against present or future capital gains.
Margin of Safety
Benjamin Graham believed that you should first focus on the security of your investment: ensure that you get your capital back plus the rate of return paid on equivalent risk-free investments.
The return on stocks is highly variable, so there should be a margin of safety: you may expect the company to grow earnings at a rate of 20 per cent per year but what if the growth rate falls to 2 per cent? Are you still going to achieve your required minimum rate of return?
Consider the risk factors: the larger the business risk, the larger the required margin of safety.
A rule of thumb I use for "cash cows" (mature companies with a reasonable dividend policy):
Discount the expected dividend flow for the investment period (normally 15 or 20 years) using a risk-free rate of return. If the present value of expected dividends exceeds the current market price then we normally have a healthy margin of safety - the proceeds from the eventual sale of the investment.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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