James Anderson，苏格兰抵押贷款投资信托公司的经理，给我们分析了关于阿里巴巴这个令人兴奋的公司崛起的经验。
去年，我写了一篇讨论亚马逊公司对于投资者以及世界经济发展的重要性文章。我认为，从公司的早期变革阶段到成熟阶段全面的认识一个公司对于投资 成功十分关键。
这些非凡赢家的回报远高于普通公司的振荡回报以及那些预测日内市场走势的大标题盈利要高得多，即使成功的公司也有很多艰难时刻。
但是，最诱人的是如何找到最具有发展潜力的公司。他们的出现不是随机的，他们是得利于所属领域、地理条件以及最重要的一点，管理哲学。一年前，我就预测下一个全国性的公司会是阿里巴巴。去年我们秋季中期报告中显示，苏格兰抵押公司拥有价值0.44亿欧元的阿里巴巴股份。一年之后，同样的持股，价值达到了1.48亿欧元。今天，阿里巴巴市值达到2500亿美元，高于英国石油公司以及葛兰素史克公司的总和。
但这是找到潜在的未来的巨人,是最诱人的。他们的出现不是随机的。他们由部门集中,地理,尤其是管理哲学。一年前,我建议下一个巨大的全球性公司阿里巴巴。苏格兰拥有抵押贷款作为非上市股权投资。这是价值£4400万在我们去年秋季中期报告。一年后同样的持有价值£1.48亿。今天阿里巴巴本身享有的市值约为2500亿美元——或者更比英国石油公司和葛兰素史克的总和。
阿里巴巴显示出了许多大公司共有的特性，正如托尔斯泰的历史名言“所有幸福的家庭都是相似的”，企业也同样如此。它们与那些将我们指数视为垃圾的公司截然相反。它们有具有远见的投资者：如果没有马云，阿里巴巴是无法想像的。他是中国首富，但更重要的是，作为一个追梦者，他在杭州总部成功推翻了美国的电子上午垄断地位，成功地说服了17位质疑他的朋友。而这17位朋友仍然掌控着阿里，这或许会令许多人震惊，但是我们却为此感到高兴。因为他们的投入要远比那些没有耐心的基金资本主义经理多得多。因为，阿里巴巴像许多大企业一样，它不注重短期盈利以及关于股东价值的谣言。
马云说道：“客户第一，员工第二，股东第三。”他的雄心基本上是无限的。许多投资者会选择回避这类野心。相反，我们认为一旦任何一家公司的最终规模被公布、定义之后，人们对于它的前景就会失去兴趣。阿里巴巴已经进入到一个人们无法想像的领域。中国的金融都已受到它的影响。
阿里巴巴是中国企业转型的原因和标志。中国的工业化，喷薄浓烟的钢铁厂以及政党的意识形态正在被创新性的，转型的，潜在的不受控制的私人巨头所取代。阿里巴巴的年度市场订单6月份之前就达到145亿，它每年仍然以50%的速度增长。它的销售量大于亚马逊以及ebay的总和。中国现在不是模仿，而是跳跃式前进。作为互联网公司，阿里巴巴，腾讯，百度市值已位于世界前10。中国的东部沿海是走在世界资本主义前沿的美国西海岸的唯一竞争对手。这样看来，Mark Zuckerberg自学汉语就不奇怪了。
最终，美国的西北海岸以及中国的东南沿海的大公司惊人的相似。除了他们相似的思维模式之外，他们也给世界带来了巨大的挑战。作为投资者，我们需要适应那些对资本或上市需求少的公司。阿里巴巴和facebook一样，都是作为了一家私人公司实现了其主导地位。在首次官方交易时，其价值就高达2亿美金。国企以及私企之间的界限正在迅速变得模糊。遗憾的是，个人投资者很难利用这一点进行交易。
全球的竞争格局将会被这个野心勃勃的竞争对手所主导。它们的发展壮大会让金融与知识界震惊，传统的、保守的企业管理前景将会变得暗淡。如果我们认为它们的影响仅局限于一些次要的、不幸的金融公司的话，那么我们这是在自欺欺人。目前为止，它已经影响了零售商以及报纸行业，并正在开始破坏大公司的运作模式。贪婪的银行业在这次变革中幸免，但是他们注定会被阿里巴巴以及腾讯的优势吞噬。对于英国石油公司和葛兰素史克来说，它们的业务现在或许只是阿里巴巴的一半，但是未来有可能会更糟。
随着大的科技公司超越电子以及电子商务的狭窄界限，商业世界开始分离。如果Elon Musk能够证明电动汽车以及太阳能是经济发展的未来，如果Illumina公司的基因排序取得长足进展并显示药物对于我们健康仅有微小的作用，那么关于什么是安全的市价指数在未来将会给我们带来很多痛苦。这将发生在google挽救死亡命运的计划之前。
Alibaba and Chinese lessons
James Anderson, manager of the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, gives us an insight into the rise of Alibaba and the lessons that can be learnt from this exciting company
Last year I wrote an article discussing the significance of Amazon for investors and the global economy. I argued that identifying transformative companies at a very early stage and owning them through to maturity is central to investment success.
the returns from such extraordinary winners can far outweigh the oscillations of normal companies or the headlines blaring of daily market movements. this requires endurance. even great companies have trying times.
But it is finding the potential giants of the future that is most alluring. their occurrence is not random. they are concentrated by sector, geography and especially management philosophy. I suggested a year ago that the next great global company was Alibaba. scottish Mortgage owned a stake as an unquoted investment. It was valued at £44 million in our Interim report last autumn. A year later the same holding was worth £148 million. today Alibaba itself enjoys a market capitalisation of around $250 billion – or a bit more than Bp and Glaxo combined.
Alibaba displays characteristics that are sufficiently common amongst great companies as to suggest that tolstoy’s aphorism that ‘All happy families are alike’ has a corporate equivalent. they look not at all like the unhappy companies that litter our indices. they have founders with vision. Alibaba is unimaginable without Jack Ma. he is now China’s richest man but more significantly the dreamer who convinced 17 questioning friends that he could overthrow Us e-commerce dominance from his hangzhou apartment. that these partners still control the firm horrifies many but delights us. far better their commitment than the impatience of fund manager capitalism. for, as at almost all great companies, Alibaba pays little attention to immediate earnings prospects or the mantras of shareholder value.
As Ma remarks: “Customers first, employees second, and shareholders third.” his aspirations are almost boundless. Many investors fight shy of such ambition. Instead we believe that once the ultimate scale of any business is known and defined then it is of little interest to the forward-looking. Already Alibaba has moved into territory it once could not imagine. Chinese finance is already reeling from its attacks.
Alibaba is both cause and symbol of the transformation of China. the imagined China of forced industrialisation, of belching steel plants and party ideology is being superseded by innovative, transformative and potentially uncontrollable private juggernauts. Alibaba’s marketplace generated 14.5 billion orders in the year to June. the company is still growing 50% year on year. Its sales volumes are bigger than those of Amazon and eBay combined. China is not imitating but leaping ahead. Alibaba, tencent and Baidu are well ensconced amongst the world’s top 10 internet companies by capitalisation. the east coast of China is the only global rival to the West coast of America as the cutting edge of global capitalism. It is no wonder that Mark Zuckerberg has taught himself to speak Mandarin.
Ultimately the great companies of north West America and south-east China are shockingly similar. Beyond their parallel mental models they bring huge challenges to the world. As investors we have to become accustomed to companies that have little need of capital or of public quotation. Alibaba, like facebook, built its dominance as a private company. By the time of its first official trade it was valued at over $200 billion. the boundary between public and private is blurring rapidly. sadly this is hard
for individual investors to negotiate.
the global competitive landscape will be dominated by this breed of super-ambitious competitors. As they expand and flex muscles that are now intimidating in financial and intellectual scale, the prospects of traditional, conservative managerial behemoths will dim. We fool ourselves if we believe that their threats will be confined to some unfortunate but peripheral internet casualties. What up until now has affected retailers and newspapers is just starting to undermine the business models of our largest companies. the greed of bankers has survived the crash but their businesses may not survive the advances demonstrated by Alibaba and tencent. for Bp and Glaxo it may be demeaning that they are now half the size of Alibaba but their future may be much worse.
As the ambitions and ethos of the great technology companies move beyond narrow electronics and e-commerce, then the business world will be ripped apart. If elon Musk proves that electric cars and solar energy are the economic future, if Illumina’s exponential improvements in genomic sequencing show up how little of the current drugs industry is beneficial to our health, then there is much pain ahead for what is said to be safe and secure in our market indices. And that is before Google’s planned solution to death.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.dianomi.com/img/uploads/VOs2ScCoyKkAAETAy58AAAAT.pdf