随着传统的可以带来丰厚利润的投资领域日趋变得艰难，投资者也在寻找别的市场商机。在金融危机之前，投资者清楚地知道某些领域可以带来丰厚的股息，其中银行总是接近榜首；食品零售业、公共事业、大的医药公司以及石油天然气公司也是很好的投资选择。
今天，投资前景大为不同。大部分银行都在艰难地应对危机，尽管汇丰银行仍然呈现出一个合理的收益，但是总体来说，银行领域对投资者的吸引力很小。
对于食品零售商来说，2014年是多灾之年。乐购（Tesco）预计将会在2月份支付过去12个月内的4.6便士股息，仅为去年同期14.76便士的三分之一。分析师不认为以后会出现任何复苏。
不久，2015年的股利预计仅是5.3便士(www.digitallook.com)。乐购在去年上了大部分的头条，莫里森超市（Morrisons）紧随其后，塞恩斯伯里超市（Sainsbury）也透露出未来股利将会减少的迹象。
贾斯汀·库珀，人均资产服务股东解决方案的主管，他说“英国的超市正在经历转型，并且它们将花很长一段时间来重新设计它们的商业模式”。
那些以前可以带来丰厚股息回报领域的前景很不明朗。公共事业已经沦为政治足球，它们的命运只有在大选之后才会知道。石油和天然气巨头，英国石油（BP）以及荷兰皇家壳牌的股利派发的股息历来最高，但是去年却受到成本上升、英镑走强以及油价下降的影响。如果石油价格持续低位，股利几乎可以肯定是会受影响的。
然而前景并不都是黯淡的。英国今年人均股息预测将会上升5.5%，达到837亿，与去年相比增长小于2%。英国圣詹姆斯收入基金的经理，Majedie说“从长期看，红利一直在稳步增长。过去十年中，FTSE实现了年均股利增长7%。在英国有很多很棒的投资公司”。
整个市场的股利增长显然是一个积极的趋势，但是更深入的研究可以提供现在以及未来关于哪些投资将会带来更多收入回报的线索。尽管基数低，但是FTSE250的股利的增长远大于FTSE100。比如，在去年的第三季度主要指数的支出占89%，但股利同比下降1.1%。FTSE250指数的支出仅占9%，但股利收入上升了7.6%。
库珀说，“FTSE100是不正常的，因为有许多公司报告以欧元或美元的形式来反映来自海外的利润”。所以，如果英镑走强的话，那么股利将会减少，尤其是当公司报告以美元宣布，后来却转换成英镑。同样，这些公司对于全球的经济动荡更加敏感。中盘股国内指向性更强，并且趋于周期性，所以，当英国经济复苏的时候表现会相对好。
房地产是这个趋势的一个例子。它们不仅走出了经济危机的低点，而且对待资本采取 了一种更为严格的方式——给股东分发更多的股利而不是投资于昂贵的土地。换句话说，它们能够确保收入大于所支付的股息。
Shore Capital的Alex Stewart说，“当你寻找能够带来股利收入的公司时，最重要一点是能够得到稳定收入”。从这一点来看，买入最高收益的股票不见得是最好的策略。投资者应该考虑收入来源的安全性。比如，食品生产商Cranswick公司，自从1970s首次公开募股以来，每年都会增加股息分配。对于你来说，这就是一个持续的增长。
就部门来看，烟酒公司，电信以及交通部门通常是成熟的企业，具有回报投资者的趋势。烟酒公司或许会引起道德投资者的侧目，但是它们可以持续的获利，而通信股票比如英国电信（BT）、沃达丰（Vodafone）甚至Talk Talk都会带来大量资金回报。
沃达丰在英国历来是最大的股息派发者之一—去年第一季度它向投资者派发£160亿股息，紧随其竞争对手美国移动运营商威瑞森（Verizon）之后。它在未来必定是一个慷慨的股利分发公司。
当然，预测收入增长来源不是一门精确的科学。Reid采用一种集中方式寻找那些可能在未来产生丰厚股利的公司。“你需要寻找具有上升潜力的公司。我们看它6年来的历史以及对未来三年的预测。接下来我们进行6项测试：它们是如何盈利的，它们的资产负债表的竞争力度，它们有竞争力的优势，以及它们的估值。目标是，我们投资的公司中有60家左右的公司在未来三年内将会超越竞争对手”。
Reid和别的投资者一样，他的方法是非常具体的，他认为收益是非常关键的。“看待股息问题需要看成本及收益，对于我们来说，股息收益应该是成本的1.3倍并且呈上升趋势”。
Ups and downs of UK dividends
St. James’s place Wealth Management
As the traditional sectors for providing generous dividends face tough conditions, investors are looking elsewhere for their market-beating yields.
Before the financial crisis, investors in search of income knew that certain sectors could be relied upon to deliver generous dividends and market-beating yields. Banks were always at, or near, the top of the list; food retailers and utilities were good bets, too, as were the big pharmaceutical companies and oil and gas majors.
Today, the picture is quite different. Most banks struggled to survive the financial crisis and, although HSBC still offers a reasonable yield, the sector as a whole has little appeal for the income investor.
As for the food retailers, 2014 was their annus horribilis. Tesco is forecast to pay a dividend of around 4.6p for the 12 months to February, a third of the 14.76p it paid out at the same time in 2014. Analysts do not expect a recovery any time
Soon, with the dividend for 2015 expected to be just 5.3p (www.digitallook.com). Tesco delivered the most headlines last year but Morrisons was not far behind, and Sainsbury’s also signaled that dividends will be lower in the future.
‘UK supermarkets are suffering from structural changes in the market, and it will take a long time for them to re-engineer their business models,’ says Justin Cooper, head of shareholder solutions at Capita Asset services.
The outlook is far from certain for other erstwhile income sectors, too. Utilities have become political footballs and their fate will not be known until after the general election. Oil and gas majors, Bp and royal Dutch shell, have traditionally been among the highest dividend payers in the market, but last year they were hit by rising costs and a strong pound in the first half, followed by falling oil prices in the second. If lower oil prices continue, dividends are almost certain to be affected.
And yet the future is not all bleak. Capita predicts that underlying dividends in the UK will rise 5.5% to £83.7 billion this year, having increased by less than 2% last year
Over the long term, too, dividends have been growing steadily, as Chris Reid of Majedie, manager of the St. James’s place UK Income fund, points out. ‘Income from the FTSE All-share has increased by an average of 7% per annum over the past 10 years. We have some fantastic income providers in the UK,’ he says.
Dividend growth across the market is clearly a positive trend, but deeper analysis provides further clues about where best to look for income, not just now but in the future. FTSE 250 dividends are increasing significantly faster than those in the FTSE 100, albeit from a lower base. In the third quarter of last year, for example, the main index accounted for almost 89% of total pay-outs, but dividends fell 1.1% year-on-year. The FTSE 250 accounts for just over 9% of total pay-outs, but dividends within the index rose 7.6%.
‘the FTSE 100 is unusual because so many companies report in dollars or euros and derive profits from overseas,’ says Cooper. ‘So when the pound is strong, dividends suffer, particularly if they are declared in dollars and then converted to sterling. Equally, these companies are more sensitive to global economic turbulence. Mid-cap stocks are more domestically oriented, and tend to be more cyclical, so they do better when the UK economy is recovering.
House builders are an example of this trend. Not only have they recovered dramatically from their post-crisis lows, but they are also determined to adopt a more disciplined approach to capital – and that means returning more money to shareholders through dividends rather than investing in overpriced land. In other words, they are making sure that the amount they pay out in dividends is well covered by earnings.
‘When you are looking for dividend growth, the most important thing to look for in terms of sustainability is cover,’ says Alex Stewart from broker shore Capital. ‘On that basis, buying the highest-yielding stocks may not always be the best policy. Investors should instead focus on security of income flow. A company such as food producer Cranswick, for example, has raised its dividend every year since its IPO (initial public offering) in the 1970s. That’s sustainable growth for you.’
On a sector basis, tobacco stocks, large alcoholic drinks companies, telecoms providers and transport groups are often mature businesses, with a tendency to reward their investors. The first two may raise eyebrows among ethical investors, but smoking and drinking continue to deliver profits, while telecoms stocks such as BT, Vodafone and even TalkTalk tend to generate plenty of cash.
Vodafone has traditionally been one of the largest dividend payers in the UK – in the first quarter of last year it returned almost £16 billion to investors following the sale of its stake in Us mobile operator, Verizon. Now a smaller business, it has pledged to remain a generous distributor of dividends in the future.
Of course, predicting where income growth will come from is not an exact science. Majedie’s Reid adopts a focused approach, seeking out companies that are likely to pay market-beating dividends in the future: ‘You have to look for companies that are raising their game. We look at their six-year history and their forecasts for the next three years. We then carry out four tests: how they make money, the strength of their balance sheet, their competitive position and their valuation. The idea is that the 60 or so companies in our fund will leapfrog the competition over three years.’
Reid’s approach is highly specific but, like other income seekers in the market, he believes earnings cover is crucial. ‘It is a question of looking at the dividend, seeing how much it costs and how much it is covered. For us, the cash dividend cover should be 1.3 times and rising.’
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