有些股票被认为未来的价值一定会高于现在的买入价格，对这类股票进行投资即称为“价值”投资。股票的价值是通过公司提交的有形资产净值、每股收益、股息支付等进行评估的。因此，价值投资者都偏爱市净率低、市盈率高、股息率高的股票。
但是满足这些条件的股票风险都很高，股票很便宜可能是因为公司濒临破产，而不是单纯的价格便宜。想要区分真便宜还是假便宜（价值陷阱）可不容易，以下几点可以帮助你进行区分。
1. 因公司欺诈导致价格下跌的股票要敬而远之。比如安然公司(Enron)，世通公司(WorldCom)，美国泰科(Tyco)都因为爆出丑闻而股价暴跌，这种情况可不是单纯的价格便宜。最终，他们的走势趋近于0，让他们的股东两手空空。
一旦涉及欺诈，财务报表中的数据再无用处，而此时根本无法正确的评估公司的价值。严重点说，一旦涉及欺诈，尚未被公司管理层贪污的那部分也变得一文不值。涉及欺诈的股票一定不要沾手。
2. 公司高管对前景过分乐观的要小心。任何公司承诺的持续的两位数增长都是不现实的，一旦他们如此承诺，而又不能兑现时，管理层就会捏造数据。沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在20世纪80年代买入了房地美(Freddie Mac)的股票，那时股价非常之低。20世纪90年代，他在获利27.5亿美元时果断平仓，因为他发现公司高管对发展前景的预估过于乐观。
3. 高负债、高杠杆的公司要避开。负债是一把双刃剑。在好的时机下，你可以利用杠杆赚取很多钱，而借钱也很容易。若时机不好，你可能一下子赔光，这是你最想借钱的时候，信用商反而开始催你还钱。
计算好安全系数以确保公司的收益足够偿还债务，寻找利息保障倍数在2-4倍的公司（息税前利润至少是支付利息的2-4倍）。上限要适用于行业状况，尤其是周期性行业；下限要适用于更稳定的收入，例如公共事业。
没有债务的公司很难破产，除非遇到飞来横祸（例如大量不利于它的法律决策），或是产品太贵卖不出去无法回本（在损益表中净收益显示为负）。另一方面，杠杆太高也可能摧毁一家好公司。
4. 产品、服务过时的公司要避开。百视达(Blockbuster)就是个很好的例子，在所有人在家点点鼠标就能下载的年代，谁还会去实体店里买影碟？同样地，随着互联网的扩展，报纸和实体书店都收到了巨大的冲击。过时的服务和产品意味着现在的损失会延续下去，其股价可能没有反弹的余地了。
5. 竞争者越来越多的公司要小心。查看公司五到十年利润率（净收益除以收入），同该行业的其它公司向对比，如果利润率逐年下降，就意味着他们为了维持客户必须提供更有竞争力的价格，从而导致收益降低。如果公司在价格上也没有竞争力，估价再低也不要选它。
6. 高度监管行业的公司要当心。以美国为例，他们的管理费用很高，很多公司纷纷将公司转移至中国或是其他国家。很多产品都不再是美国制造了。发薪日贷款是另一个例子，借出100美金，两到三周内到期，需支付20美金的利息，这是暴利。然而政府规定年化利率不得超过36%，大大削减了利润。
7. 因削减股息导致股价下跌的股票要小心，尤其是公司根本不打算恢复股息的时候。削减股息通常意味着公司可用来支付的收益减少了，削减股息导致的价格修正是旷日持久的。股价大幅下跌会将其内在价值降低至50%甚至更低，除非估价十分吸引人，否则就别买。
8. 专家们的预估往往是很宽泛的。在收益公布之前，他们总是往少了说。公司的实际收益超过了专家的预测，这样面子上很好看。专家们偶尔会对股价反应过度从而导致预测失误，这就是“趁低吸纳”的主要原因，但是预测失误是个不详的征兆。
9. 只投资盈利企业。分析企业五年来的损益表（十年的更好）。在五到十年中，持续盈利的公司的每股收益或多或少都会有所增涨。若公司的收益连续几年都有下降，那多少钱买入都嫌贵。
10. 寻找内部购买的机会。内部人员最清楚他们公司的实际价值，如果股价确实很便宜，员工们也会参与购买。内部人员购买股票只有一个原因：他们知道股票会上涨。另一方面，如果你发现好多内部员工都在卖出股票，这是一个不详的预兆，你就不应该再考虑这支股票了。
11. 从资产负债表中分析公司是否健康。查看公司的流动资产比查看它的流动负债更为重要，因为流动资产可以确保他们的短期支付能力。更重要的是减去库存（可能是非现金）以计算其速动资产净值并从流动资产中计算出流动负债总额。此外,用流动负债总额除以流动资产总额（少库存）以确定速动比率，确保比率大于一。另一个检测财务健康的方法是债务股本比，用股东权益和资本盈余的总合除以总负债，该数值应小于一，而且越小越好。
How to Avoid Value Traps in Stocks
"Value" investing is buying stocks that are perceived as being worth more than what you pay for them.[1] Stocks are valued most commonly by the net tangible assets of the companies they represent, earnings per share, and dividends they pay. Thus, a value investor would favor those stocks that have a low price/book ratio, low price/earnings ratio, and high dividend yield.
However, it could be dangerous to buy a stock that meets these criteria, because a stock that appears cheap may in fact be on the brink of bankruptcy and not a bargain at all, despite the figures. Sorting the true bargains from the false bargains (or "value traps") is not easy. Here are some things to look for that may help you see the distinction.
1
Stay clear of stocks that have dropped in price due to to exposed corporate fraud. Some recent examples like Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco experienced a marked drop in prices that made them look like bargains after their scandals were exposed. In the end, however, they found themselves on a relentless trajectory to zero, leaving shareholders with nothing. Wherever fraud is involved, the figures in financial statements that are used to determine value are meaningless, and the company simply cannot be valued appropriately. Moreover, once fraud is discovered, a company tends to have little or no value left that has not already been stolen by corrupt management. Do not consider stocks of companies involved in corporate fraud.
2
Beware of an overly optimistic outlook from a company's management. Any company that promises to deliver consistently increasing, double-digit earnings growth is unrealistic, and such promises, when they become undeliverable, may lead to fabrication of figures by management. Warren Buffett bought huge stakes in Freddie Mac during the 1980s when the stock was truly cheap. He liquidated his position for a $2.75 billion profit in the late 1990s after he saw signs that the overly optimistic goals of the company's management were unachievable.[2]
3
Avoid companies with high debt or leverage. Debt is a double-edged sword. In good times you can make a lot of money using leverage, and borrowing is easy. In bad times you can lose money very fast, and the time when you need money the most is when creditors start calling you and demanding repayment.
4
Avoid companies dealing in outdated products and services. Blockbuster is a good example: who needs to go to a physical store to get videos or DVDs when they can be downloaded at home with the click of a mouse? Likewise, newspapers and physical bookstore businesses have been hurt by the expanding Internet. Outdated products and services often signify that the lost revenues are probably lost forever and that a rebound in the stock price is unlikely.
5
Be careful of companies facing increasingly stiff competition. Look at the profit margins (net earnings divided by revenue) of a company through a period of five to ten years. Compare to profit margins of competitors in its industry. If the profit margins are decreasing through the years, that usually signifies that the company is unable to pass increasing costs on to its customers because of the need to maintain competitive prices. If a company is no longer competitive, it's better to avoid it despite the low valuations.
• For a good margin of safety to make sure a company is able to satisfy interest payments on its debt, look for companies with two-to-four times interest coverage (earnings before interest at least two-to-four times interest charges). Upper limit applies to industrial issues, especially cyclical ones; lower limit applies to more stable incomes such as utilities.
• A company with no debt is highly unlikely to go bankrupt, barring unforeseen misfortunes (such as a massive legal settlement against it) or an inability to sell its products for more than it costs to create those products (evidenced by negative net income on the income statement). On the other hand, excessive leverage can destroy even a great company.
6
Be wary of companies in highly regulated industries. Because of high fees and regulation costs in the U.S., for example, many companies have relocated their businesses to other countries like China. Most consumer goods are no longer made in the U.S. Payday loans are another example. Making $20 in fees for every $100 loaned out, payable in two or three weeks, is quite profitable. However, government caps that put the maximum interest rate at 36 percent per annum cut profits significantly.
7
Be careful when investing in stocks that have dropped due to a dividend cut, especially when the company does not expect to resume dividends any time soon. Dividend cuts usually mean the company has limited earnings to pay out. The price correction following a dividend cut can be prolonged. Don't buy until valuations are really compelling, as when significant price drops send the stock to 50 percent or less of its intrinsic value.
8
Watch out for missed earnings estimates. Analysts are generally quite lenient in their estimates and tend to revise their estimates downward before earnings are announced. This allows companies to beat their estimates and look good. Occasional missed earnings estimates with overreaction in the price is a solid reason to buy "on the dip," but a pattern of missed earnings estimates is foreboding.
9
Invest in profitable enterprises only. Look at the company's income statements dating back at least five years (ten is better). A consistently profitable company should have at least some earnings per share for each of the past five-to-ten years, preferably with an upward trend. A company with consistent negative earnings for several years may be too expensive at any price.
10
Look for insider buying. Insiders are in the best position to know how much their company is really worth. If the stock price is truly cheap, they will be buying the stock. There is only one reason why insiders buy: they expect the stock to go up. If you see a recent history of insider buying, it's a safe bet to follow suit. On the other hand, if you see many insiders selling a stock you're considering, it may be an ominous sign, and you should probably keep your hands off.
11
Check the balance sheet to make sure the company is healthy. One of the most important things to look for is that the company has current assets greater than current liabilities, to ensure that it can pay its bills in the short term. A more stringent test is to calculate the quick net asset value by subtracting inventory (which may be illiquid) and total current liabilities from current assets. Alternatively, determine the quick current ratio by dividing total current assets (less inventory) by total current liabilities. Make sure the ratio is greater than one. Another measurement of financial health is the debt-to-equity ratio, obtained by dividing total liabilities by the sum of shareholders' equity and capital surplus. The debt-to-equity ratio should be less than one; the lower, the better.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.wikihow.com/Avoid-Value-Traps-in-Stocks