移动平均线

移动平均线将不同时段内的收盘价连接起来，使价格波动平滑化，从而客观的显示价格趋势。移动平均线通常会结合中间价格 (median price) 、典型价格 (typical price)、加权收盘价（weighted closing）、高低开盘价（high, low or open prices）等指标使用。

移动平均线的时间周期越短，对新趋势的识别度越灵敏，但也通常会发出错误交易信号。长周期的移动平均线相对可靠，但只能够反映大趋势。

移动平均线的参数可以是交易图表周期的一半：如果交易的峰间周期的为30天，那么就选择15日均线；如果是20天，则选择20日平均线。一些投资者也会在上述周期中选择14日或9日均线，希望通过其敏感性预测市场走势。另外一些人则喜欢使用斐波那契数列，比如周期为5日、8日、13日、21日等的移动平均线。

• 100 ~ 200 日 (20 ~ 40 周) 多为长期移动平均线计算期间；
• 20 ~ 65 日 ( 4 ~ 13周) 为中期移动平均线计算期间；
• 5 ~ 20 日移动平均线计算期间。

交易信号

当价格穿越移动均线时交易信号便产生：价格从移动均线的下部向上穿越时做多，价格下穿过移动均线时做空。移动平均线非常容易受到价格突变的影响，产生一系列错误的交易信号。下面列出了几种方式能够过滤掉这些价格上的突变。

• 两条移动平均线：利用较快的一条代替收盘价；
• 三条移动平均线：利用第三条移动平均线来识别价格走势；
• 复合移动平均线：利用六条快速和六条缓慢的移动平均线来排除价格波动，确定走势；
• 肯特纳通道：基于平均真实波幅原理，过滤价格波动；
• 最受欢迎的是MACD震荡指标，利用长期与中短期移动平均线来计算两者之间的差离情况。

移动平均线有各种类型，每种类型都有各自的特点。

• 简单的移动平均线（SMA）是最容易建立，也最容易产生错误交易信号；
• 加权移动平均线很难建立，但是相对可靠；
• 指数移动平均线可以达到加权移动平均线的效果，比较容易建立；
• 平均运动指数怀尔德指标，类似于指数移动平均线，用户需要考虑不同的权重。

Moving Average Indicator
Moving averages provide an objective measure of trend direction by smoothing price data. Normally calculated using closing prices, the moving average can also be used with median, typical , weighted closing, and high, low or open prices as well as other indicators.
Moving Average Time Frames
Shorter length moving averages are more sensitive and identify new trends earlier, but also give more false alarms. Longer moving averages are more reliable but less responsive, only picking up the big trends.
Use a moving average that is half the length of the cycle that you are tracking. If the peak-to-peak cycle length is roughly 30 days, then a 15 day moving average is appropriate. If 20 days, then a 10 day moving average is appropriate. Some traders, however, will use 14 and 9 day moving averages for the above cycles in the hope of generating signals slightly ahead of the market. Others favor the Fibonacci numbers of 5, 8, 13 and 21.
• 100 to 200 Day (20 to 40 Week) moving averages are popular for longer cycles;
• 20 to 65 Day ( 4 to 13 Week) moving averages are useful for intermediate cycles; and
• 5 to 20 Days for short cycles.
Trading Signals
The simplest moving average system generates signals when price crosses the moving average:
• Go long when price crosses to above the moving average from below.
• Go short when price crosses to below the moving average from above.
The system is prone to whipsaws in ranging markets, with price crossing back and forth across the moving average, generating a large number of false signals. For that reason, moving average systems normally employfilters to reduce whipsaws.
More sophisticated systems use more than one moving average.
• Two Moving Averages uses a faster moving average as a substitute for closing price.
• Three Moving Averages employs a the third moving average to identify when price is ranging.
• Multiple Moving Averages use a series of six fast moving averages and six slow moving averages to confirm each other.
• Keltner Channels use bands plotted at a multiple of average true range to filter moving average crossovers.
• The popular MACD ("Moving Average Convergence Divergence") indicator is a variation of the two moving average system, plotted as an oscillator which subtracts the slow moving average from the fast moving average.
Moving Average Types
There are several different types of moving averages, each with their own peculiarities.
• Simple moving averages are the easiest to construct, but also the most prone to distortion.
• Weighted moving averages are difficult to construct, but reliable.
• Exponential moving averages achieve the benefits of weighting combined with ease of construction.
• Wilder moving averages are used mainly in indicators developed by J. Welles Wilder. Essentially the same formula as exponential moving averages, they use different weightings — for which users need to make allowance.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/moving_average.php