Alan Farley 2016年9月29日
烛台图是一种将多重时间框架数据集中到一个价格条的技术工具。这使得他们比传统的开高收低价格条或者连接收盘价格点的简单线条用处更大。烛台一旦形成就能构建预测价格方向的模式。这个适当的色彩编码工具源自18世纪的日本大米交易员。
1991年，Steve Nison用他的畅销书《日本烛台图技术》将烛台图模式带到了西方。现在许多交易员能识别数十种烛台图模式，它们的名字五花八门，例如乌云盖顶、黄昏之星和三只黑乌鸦。此外，包括十字线和锤子在内的单一价格模式已经被纳入了几十种买卖交易策略中。
烛台图模式可靠性
不是所有的烛台图模式都十分有效。他们的广泛流行已经降低了其可靠性，因为他们已经被对冲基金和他们的算法解构。这些资金充足的参与者依赖快速执行与进行传统技术分析的散户投资者和基金做反向交易。换句话说，他们利用软件为那些寻求高几率上涨或者下跌结果的参与者设置陷阱。然而，可靠的模式还仍在起作用，允许你在长短期内获利。
下面有五个在预测价格和动量时表现异常好的烛台图模式。每个都能在当前价格条情况下预测价格的上涨或者下降。他们也在两个方面对时间非常敏感。首先，他们仅在观察的时间框架的图表中有效，无论是日内、每日、周或者月图。其次，他们的效力在模式形成后的3到5个价格条后迅速下降。
表现最好的五种烛台图模式
这一分析基于Thomas Bulkowski的研究，他在其2008年的书《烛台图百科全书》中为烛台图模式表现分级。他提供了两种预期模式的结果分析数据，分别是反转和延续。烛台反转模式预测价格走向的变化而延续模式预测当前的价格趋势将延续。
在下列例子中，空心的白色烛台表示开始价格低于结束价格，而黑色烛台表示开始价格高于结束价格。
三线反击
上扬三线反击反转模式在下跌趋势中形成三个黑烛台。每个价格条都比上一个更低而且他们的结束点接近日内最低点。第四个价格条开始价格比第三个更低，但是经过大范围的反转结束价格略高于第一个价格条的开始价格。第四个价格条的开始价格也是其最低价格。Bulkowski认为，这一反转的准确率高达84%
跳空双阴线
下跌跳空双阴险出现在显著上扬趋势的顶点之后。在一个下跌跳空之后出现两个继续下跌的价格条。这一模式预测下跌将持续到更低的低点，可能会引发更大规模的下跌趋势。Bulkowski认为这一模式预测价格下跌的准确率高达68%。
三只黑乌鸦
下跌三只黑乌鸦反转模式出现在上扬趋势的高点或者附近处，三个价格条呈现出一个比一个低的趋势。这一趋势预测价格将继续下跌到更低点，可能引发更大规模的下跌。最坏的下跌版本是该模式出现在新的高点上，因为它会诱使买家进行动量交易。Bulkowski认为这一模式预测价格下跌的准确率高达78%。
黄昏之星
下跌黄昏之星反转模式从一个到达新高点的阳线开始。下一个价格条跳空到更高点但是未能吸引新的买家，形成一个短小的烛台。一个下跌跳空的阴线完成这一模式，预示价格将跌到更低点，可能会引发更大规模的下跌。Bulkowski认为这一模式预测价格下跌的准确率高达72%。
弃婴形态
上扬弃婴形态反转模式出现在下跌趋势的低点中，之前会有多个阴线。市场跳空到更低价格但是未能出现新的卖家，形成一个开始和结束价格相同的十字线。第三个上扬跳空价格条完成这一模式，预示着价格将上涨到更高价格，可能引发更大规模的上涨趋势。Bulkowsk认为这一模式预测价格上涨的准确率高达70%。
总结
烛台图模式吸引了许多市场参与者的注意，但是在当代电子环境中，这些模式形成的许多反转和延续信号都不太可靠。幸运的是，Bulkowski的统计表明这些稀有模式通常是准确的，提供了可交易的买卖信号。
The 5 Most Powerful Candlestick Patterns (NUAN, GMCR)
By Alan Farley | Updated September 29, 2016 — 9:07 AM EDT
Candlestick charts are a technical tool that pack data for multiple timeframes into single price bars. This makes them more useful than traditional open-high, low-close bars (OHLC) or simple lines that connect the dots of closing prices. Candlesticks build patterns that predict price direction once completed. Proper color coding adds depth to this colorful technical tool, which dates back to 18th century Japanese rice traders.
Steve Nison brought candlestick patterns to the Western world in his popular 1991 book, "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques." Many traders can now identify dozens of these formations, which have colorful names like bearish dark cloud cover, evening star and three black crows. In addition, single bar patterns including the doji and hammer have been incorporated into dozens of long- and short-side trading strategies.
Candlestick Pattern Reliability
Not all candlestick patterns work equally well. Their huge popularity has lowered reliability because they’ve been deconstructed by hedge funds and their algorithms. These well-funded players rely on lightning speed execution to trade against retail and traditional fund managers who execute technical analysis strategies found in popular texts. In other words, they use software to trap participants looking for the high odds bullish or bearish outcomes. However, reliable patterns continue to appear, allowing short- and long-term profit opportunities.
Here are five candlestick patterns that perform exceptionally well as precursors of price direction and momentum. Each works within the context of surrounding price bars in predicting higher or lower prices. They are also time sensitive in two ways. First, they only work within the limitations of the chart being reviewed, whether intraday, daily, weekly or monthly. Second, their potency decreases rapidly 3-to-5 bars after the pattern has completed.
Top 5 Candlestick Patterns
This analysis relies on the work of Thomas Bulkowski, who built performance rankings for candlestick patterns in his 2008 book, "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts." He offers statistics for two kinds of expected pattern outcomes: reversal and continuation. Candlestick reversal patterns predict a change in price direction while continuation patterns predict an extension in the current price direction.
In the following examples, the hollow white candlestick denotes a closing print higher than the opening print while the black candlestick denotes a closing print lower than the opening print.
Three Line Strike
The bullish three line strike reversal pattern carves out three black candles within a downtrend. Each bar posts a lower low and closes near the intrabar low. The fourth bar opens even lower but reverses in a wide-range outside bar that closes above the high of the first candle in the series. The opening print also marks the low of the fourth bar. According to Bulkowski, this reversal predicts higher prices with an 84% accuracy rate.
Two Black Gapping
The bearish two black gapping continuation pattern appears after a notable top in an uptrend, with a gap down that yields two black bars posting lower lows. This pattern predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. According to Bulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 68% accuracy rate.
Three Black Crows
The bearish three black crows reversal pattern starts at or near the high of an uptrend, with three black bars posting lower lows that close near intrabar lows. This pattern predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. The most bearish version starts at a new high (A) because it traps buyers entering momentum plays. According to Bulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 78% accuracy rate.
Evening Star
The bearish evening star reversal pattern starts with a tall white bar that carries an uptrend to a new high. The market gaps higher on the next bar but fresh buyers fail to appear, yielding a narrow range candlestick. A gap down on the third bar completes the pattern, which predicts the decline will continue to even lower lows, perhaps triggering a broader scale downtrend. According to Bulkowski, this pattern predicts lower prices with a 72% accuracy rate.
Abandoned Baby
The bullish abandoned baby reversal pattern appears at the low of a downtrend, after a series of black candles print lower lows. The market gaps lower on the next bar but fresh sellers fail to appear, yielding a narrow range doji candlestick with opening and closing prints at the same price. A bullish gap on the third bar completes the pattern, which predicts the recovery will continue to even higher highs, perhaps triggering a broader scale uptrend. According to Bulkowski, this pattern predicts higher prices with a 70% accuracy rate.
The Bottom Line
Candlestick patterns capture the attention of market players but many reversal and continuation signals emitted by these patterns don’t work reliably on the modern electronic environment. Fortunately, statistics by Thomas Bulkowski show unusual accuracy for a narrow selection of these patterns, offering tradersactionable buy and sell signals.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092315/5-most-powerful-candlestick-patterns.asp