Jean Folger 2016年1月13日
黄金是公元前2000年左右古埃及人率先冶炼出来的。一千多年之后，古美索不达亚金匠制作出了精巧的青金、玛瑙头饰品和叶形黄金吊坠。从那时开始，人类就开始对黄金着迷，对黄金的迫切渴望引发了许多淘金潮和战争。西班牙国王费南迪在1511年曾经说过：“如果可能，那么就人道地获取黄金，但是最重要的是获取黄金。”
现在，人们获取黄金不仅仅是因为投资和珠宝市场的需要，同时也用于一些电子和医疗设备的生产。黄金在2011年3月的价格以1420美元每盎司创下新高。是什么驱动这种稀有金属的价格呢？
央行储备
央行把持有纸币和黄金作为储备。世界黄金协会表示央行们现在买入的黄金多于卖出，这是十多年来的第一次。随着央行们开始多样化其外汇储备（把纸币换成黄金），黄金价格开始上升。世界上许多国家的货币储备主要是黄金，其中包括美国、德国、意大利、葡萄牙、希腊和欧洲地区。
美元价值
黄金价格通常和美元价值成反比关系，美元价值升高通常使黄金价格降低，美元疲软会导致黄金价格上升。这是因为人们有在美元价值上升时投资和交易美元的趋势。然而在美元疲软的经济不稳定时期，人们更倾向于通过黄金基金和实物投资黄金。
世界范围的珠宝和工业需求
根据世界黄金协会和伦敦金银市场协会的数据，2010年珠宝占黄金总需求量的54%。印度、中国和美国是最大黄金珠宝消费市场。中国的黄金需求在2011年前两个月为200吨，比前些年有大幅度增长。黄金需求的另外12%用于医疗和工业用途，被用于生产医疗设备和电子仪器。黄金价格可以被基本的供求理论影响，消费商品例如珠宝和电子产品需求增加，黄金价格就会上涨。
财产保护
在经济不稳定时期，人们因为黄金的持久价值会投资黄金。黄金被认为是经济不稳定时期的避险手段。如果债券、股票和房地产的实际收益下降，人们投资黄金的兴趣就会增加，使黄金价格上涨。黄金可以用来作为货币贬值、通涨和通缩的一个对冲。此外，黄金还被认为能在政治不稳定中提供保护作用，正如在当前的中东和北非动荡中看到的，这些动荡可能是最近黄金价格上升的部分原因。
黄金产量
世界上主要的黄金产地包括中国、南非、美国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和秘鲁。世界黄金产量影响黄金价格，这是供求理论的另一个证明。随着一些新的大型金矿开始投入使用，黄金产量在2010年增加3%达到2652吨。如果忽略这一增长，金矿产量在21世纪开始后是下降的。一个原因是容易开采的黄金已经采完，现在需要挖掘更深才能开采到合格的黄金矿藏。黄金开采越来越苦难引起了其他问题，开采工人将面临更多的危险并且对环境的影响也会增加。简而言之，就是投入变得多了但是产量在减少。这导致黄金开采成本的增加，最终导致黄金价格的上升。
总结
我们长久以来一直迷恋黄金，而且未来不会改变。最近的经济危机引起了一个当代的淘金热。探索频道的淘金热节目展示了一个没有经验的矿工团队希望在阿拉斯加僻远地区淘金致富的过程，引起超过400万周五晚上观众的兴趣。美国淘金协会是一个迎合自主矿工的组织，在2008年黄金投资者增加之后其会员几乎增加了一倍。黄金需求、央行们储备黄金的数量、美元价值和持有黄金对冲通涨和货币贬值的渴望都帮助推动黄金这个世界上最珍贵金属的价格。
What Drives The Price Of Gold?
By Jean Folger | Updated January 13, 2016
The ancient Egyptians performed the first smelting of gold circa 3,600 BC. A thousand years later, gold jewelry appeared as the goldsmiths of ancient Mesopotamia crafted a burial headdress made of lapis, carnelian beads and leaf-shaped gold pendants. Since these early days, mankind has been fascinated by gold, and the desire to own it has led to great gold rushes and to wars: King Ferdinand of Spain declared in 1511, "Get gold, humanely if you can, but at all hazards, get gold!"
Today, gold is sought after not only for investment purposes and a strong jewelry market, but it is also used in the manufacturing of certain electronic and medical devices. Gold (as of March, 2011) was around $1,420 per ounce and making record highs. What factors drive the price of this precious metal?
Central Bank Reserves
Central banks hold paper currencies and gold in reserve. The World Gold Council has stated that central banks have recently begun buying more gold than they are selling, the first time this has happened in decades. As the central banks diversify their monetary reserves - away from the paper currencies they've accumulated and into gold - the price of gold rises. Many of the world's nations have reserves that are composed primarily of gold, including the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, Greece and the Euro area.
Value of the U.S. Dollar
The price of gold is generally inversely related to the value of the United States dollar: a stronger U.S. dollar tends to keep the price of gold lower and more controlled; a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to drive the price of gold higher. This is because people have a tendency to invest and trade in dollars when the dollar is strong. During times of economic uncertainty and when the dollar is weak, however, people prefer to invest in gold, through vehicles such as gold funds or coins.
Worldwide Jewelry and Industrial Demand
In 2010, jewelry accounted for approximately 54% percent of gold demand, which totaled 3,812 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council and The London Bullion Market Association. India, China and the United States are the largest consumers of gold for jewelry in terms of volume. Consumer demand in China, for example, for the first two months of 2011 reached 200 tonnes - a huge increase over the previous year, which took 10 months to reach 209 tonnes. Another 12% of demand is attributed to medical and industrial uses for gold, where it is used in the manufacturing of medical devices like stents and precision electronics like GPS units. Gold prices can be affected by the basic theory of supply and demand: as demand for consumer goods such as jewelry and electronics increase, the cost of gold can rise.
Wealth Protection
During times of economic uncertainty, as seen during the recession of the late 2000s, more people turn to investing in gold because of its enduring value. Gold is often considered a "safe haven" for investors during uncertain times. When the expected or actual returns on bonds, equities and real estate fall, the interest in gold investing increases, driving up its price. Gold can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation or deflation. In addition, gold is viewed as providing protection from political instability, as evidenced by the recent unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which may be partly responsible for gold's recent rally to new highs.
Gold Production
Major players in worldwide gold mining include China, South Africa, the United States, Australia, the Russian Federation and Peru. The world's gold production affects the price of gold, another example of supply and demand. Gold mine production increased by about three percent in 2010 to about 2,652 tonnes, according to GFMS as several new large-scale mines began operations. Despite this small increase, however, gold mine production has been in a decline since the early 2000s. One factor is that all the "easy gold" has already been mined; miners now have to dig deeper to access quality gold reserves. The fact that gold is more challenging to access raises additional problems: the miners are exposed to additional hazards, and the environmental impact is heightened. In short, it costs more to get less gold. These add to the costs of gold mine production, resulting in rising gold prices.
The Bottom Line
We have long been, and will likely continue to be, enamored by gold. The recent recession has stirred a modern day gold rush. Discovery Channel's Gold Rush: Alaska, a reality show about a team of inexperienced miners hoping to strike it rich in Alaska's backcountry, brought in more than 4 million Friday-night viewers. The Gold Prospectors Association of America, a group that caters to recreational miners, saw membership nearly double in 2008 as the gold bug spreads. The demand for gold, the amount of gold in the central banks' reserves, the value of the U.S. dollar and the desire to hold gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, all help drive the price of gold, one of the world's precious metals.