最可靠的图表形态之一 ——牛市和熊市陷阱

牛市陷阱

当向上突破反转穿透阻力位时，就代表牛市陷阱的产生。阻力位通常是两个或多个相同高点之间的连线。

• 牛市陷阱应该跟随下降趋势交易，当价格穿透阻力位时做空；
• 在上升趋势持续一段时间之后，牛市陷阱也有可能是反转信号。

熊市陷阱

当价格下降突破阻力位之后又回撤到阻力位之上时，即表示熊市陷阱的产生。支撑位通常是两个或多个相同低点之间的连线。

• 熊市陷阱应该跟随上升趋势交易，当价格回撤到支撑位之上时做多；
• 在下降趋势进行了一段时间之后的熊市陷阱也有可能是反转信号。

牛市和熊市陷阱（假突破）通常也会在较长的时间框架中发生。下图展示的是福特汽车公司股票历时一年多的牛市陷阱。

1. 价格于[1]处在1998大幅攀升到了新高，但之后很快回撤。
2. [1]、[2]、[3]处价位形成阻力位，接下来的价位调整是一个熊市信号。
3. 牛市陷阱：价格在[3]处上涨到新高，但接下来的k线却突破阻力位。
4. [4]处出现小幅回探，确认价格下降趋势。
5. [4]、[5]两处同样的高点确立了32.00处的阻力位，说明[3]之前的k线是一个有力的熊市信号。
6. [6]处价格的回升动力逐渐枯竭。
7. 下降趋势中相同高度的k线是很强的熊市信号，随后出现了价格的大幅下降。

Chart Patterns - Bull and Bear Traps
One of the most reliable chart patterns.
Bull Traps
Bull traps occur when an upward breakout retreats back below a resistance level. Resistance is normally associated with two/more equal highs or an earlier major high.
• Bull traps should be traded in a down-trend.
• They may also signal reversal after an extended up-trend.
Go short when price falls back below the resistance level.
Bear Traps
Bear traps occur when a downward breakout retreats back above a support level. Support is normally associated with two/more equal lows or an earlier major low.
• Bear traps should be traded in an up-trend.
• They may also signal reversal after an extended down-trend.
Go long when price rises above the support level.
Wide Bull and Bear Traps
Bull and bear traps (and false breaks) often occur in longer time frames as well.
Ford Motor Co. displays a bull trap that took more than a year to complete:
1. Price spiked up to a new high, in early 1998, but quickly retraces.
2. Resistance forms just below the previous high. The strong following correction is a bearish sign.
3. Bull trap: Price rallies to a marginal new high but then retreats below the new support level.
4. A short retracement confirms the trend change.
5. An equal lower high confirms resistance has formed at 32.00: the low before [3]. A strong bear signal.
6. Another attempted rally peters out.
7. Equal highs in a down-trend are a strong bear signal; and are followed by a long downward spike.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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