交易伎俩：震仓和假突破

一、震仓

市场专家希望在趋势强劲时增加自己的或客户的头寸。那么他将如何做呢？如果他大量的买入，那么价格将会直线上升。他们的黄金法则是：逢低买进。

耐心

市场专家等待交易时机：等待趋势巩固或者短期调整。他们知道此时市场波动小：买方暂时失去兴趣。他们也知道大部分的交易者的止损位置：在一个强劲走势中，大部分交易者都会通过在短期或中期低点处设置止损以锁定利润。而在巩固阶段，他们通常在趋势通道的下方设置止损。

在市场波幅有限的时候，一些精心设计的卖单就会将股价拖离支撑位。止损被触发，同时一部分交易者恐慌性卖出，市场上因此充斥着卖单。此时，市场专家不断以低价买入股票，价格逐渐回升到正常水平。在亏损的一批交易者抱怨命运的时候，股价却在飙升。

例：

下图股票在几年的强劲增长后，在$6.00附近进行了短期调整。

 
[1]处短暂低点之后，股价在$6.00处迎来了为期两个月的调整。在[2]处跌落至[1]处支撑位$5.80的下方并触发恐慌性卖空。市场专家迅速买入，收盘价最终回升到支撑位之上。[3]、[4]处的支撑位在$6.00，市场在[5]处进行了第二轮震仓。

 
二、假突破

如果市场专业人士在股票市场巩固（市场买卖均衡的信号）过程中想平掉手中所持有的大部分股票，他知道，不能简单的大量抛售，因为这会破坏市场平衡并导致价格下跌。黄金法则是：逢高卖出。所以，他会等待时机，当价格上探阻力位时卖出。有时，他甚至会利用一些精心策划的买单使价格假性突破趋势通道的阻力位。

突破后交易：趋势巩固过程中的突破交易是最受欢迎的，同时也是过去交易者盈利了主要手段。问题是，大部分交易者都可以轻而易举的识别巩固趋势，找到支撑和阻力位：如果不是整数点位，那么至少将会有两个高点在同一价位。当价格突破阻力位后，市场上会立刻产生一阵兴奋。大量的挂单被触发，多单不断的进入，每个人都希望尽早的进场。此时，谁会在观望，并适时的释放出部分流动性？市场专业人士逐渐的卖出股票（不惊动市场整体趋势），直到卖出手中大部分股票。

另外一些市场专业人士意识到了趋势的变化，并开始卖出股票。股价因此逐渐失去上升的动力并回撤到新的支撑位下方（原阻力位），大量的止损被触发，引发新一轮的大规模平仓。

在几个小时之内，市场专业人士获得了相当大的盈利。这是一个相当有难度的游戏——你需要依靠自己的智慧生存——同时，回报也是巨大的。他们很高兴的向客户汇报自己过去几天的盈利状况，并从中抽取丰厚的佣金——他们应得的。

例：

澳大利亚西太平洋银行股价于2003年初期在经历了一个宽幅的双底之后开始反弹，并在$13.00出下跌。价格从[2]处开始了窄幅巩固，伴随着少量交易量，并在[3]处震仓：
• 价格突破阻力位；
• 价格反弹引起大量卖单；
• 价格被拉至阻力位之下；
• 以上都是发生在一天之中。

 
交易者在[5]处变得更加的谨慎，价格波动幅度小，交易量也没有增加。[6]处缺口形成，产生了真实突破。在进一步上涨之前，于[7]处遇到了一轮抛售。

The Shakeout
(Tricks of the Trade)
A market professional may want to accumulate a large position in a stock that is trending strongly; either for his own account or for a major client. How does he/she do this? If he starts placing buy orders in the pool, he will chase the stock up sky high, without being able to build a big enough line. The golden rule is: buy into weakness.
Patience
The professional bides his time, waiting for the stock to consolidate or start a short-term correction. He knows that trading will be quiet during this phase: buyers lose interest for a while and look elsewhere. He also knows where most traders have their stops.
Adjusting Stops
In a strong-trending stocks, most traders will seek to lock in profits by placing their stops below the previous short-term (or intermediate) low. In a consolidation they tend to move their stops up to just below the base.

For further details see Adjusting Stop Levels.

A few well-placed sell orders on a quiet day will drive the stock below its' support level. Stops are triggered, sending a flood of sell orders into the market. Everyone takes fright while our market professional steps forward and scoops the pool; buying in the face of the correction. Selling dries up when the stops are filled and the stock soon recovers back into its normal trading range. Everything returns to normal; except that our market professional now has a sizeable parcel of stock, accumulated at bargain-basement prices; and a group of punters curse their luck while the stock soars into the stratosphere.
 
EXAMPLE
Unitab Limited holds various gambling monopolies in Australia. The stock had been in a strong up-trend for several years before a consolidation around $6.00.
After a brief low (at [1] on the chart below) the stock consolidated for 2 months around the $6.00 mark before stops were triggered at [2] by a fall below $5.80. There was a flurry of selling, quickly scooped up by the market pros, with the stock retreating back above the support level before the close.
A further support level was established at $6.00, by lows at [3] and [4], before another shakeout at [5].

False Breaks: the Fakeout
(Tricks of the Trade)
If a market professional sits with a large sell order and the stock is consolidating (a sign that the market is in equilibrium) he knows that he cannot merely dump his orders on the market. That would upset that equilibrium and he would be selling into a weak market, chasing prices down. The golden rule is: sell into strength, so our trader bides his time and waits for the market to test resistance at the top of the range. If impatient, he may even help to nudge prices across the line with a few well-timed buy orders.
Trading Breakouts
Trading breakouts from a consolidation pattern is one of the most popular and (in the past) most profitable trades that a trader can make. The problem is that everyone knows this. It is fairly easy to identify a consolidation pattern and to identify the resistance level that everyone is watching. If not a round number there will be at least one, if not many, highs at the same level.
As soon as price crosses the line there is a tremor of excitement. Conditional buy orders placed in anticipation of a breakout are triggered. Traders watching their screens notice the activity and send in a flood of new buy orders; everyone hopes to get on board before price rallies too far above the former resistance levels. And who is standing in the face of the rally, happy to accommodate them? Our market professional releases a steady stream of sell-orders into the market, careful not to saturate the market until he has offloaded most of his stock.
Other professionals pick up on what is happening and start shorting the stock. The rally fizzles and the punters are left high and dry. Price retreats back below the new support level (formerly resistance) and triggers their stops. A fresh round of selling ensues as the punters struggle to clear their positions. The professionals cover their short positions and go home having made a tidy profit for a few hours work. It's a hard game -- you have to live by your wits -- but the rewards are big.
Our market professional reports back to his clients that he has offloaded the large parcel of stock at well above the average price traded over the past few days. They congratulate themselves and are happy to pay his fat commission -- he has earned it.
 
EXAMPLE
Westpac Banking Corporation on the ASX had started to rally in early 2003 after a broad double-bottom and ashakeout below $13.00. The stock entered a narrow consolidation, with low volume for the three days starting at [2]. A shakeout follows at [3]:
• a break through resistance;
• the rally meets with strong selling;
• price is driven back below the resistance level;
• all in the same day.
Punters are more cautious the second time at [5], with a narrow price range and lower volumes. Then we have a real breakout at [6], with a gap above the resistance line and a strong blue bar on average volume. The rally meets further selling at [7] before it continues on its' way.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/trading/fakeout.php