阿隆指标(Aroon Oscillator)

阿隆指标由 Tushar Chande发明，可以用来显示一个新趋势的开始并测量趋势强度。 Chande首次在1995年9月出版的《股票商品技术分析》杂志中提到这个指标。阿隆指标由3条线组成：阿隆上升线、阿隆下行线以及显示二者区别的阿隆指标。“阿隆”是一个梵文词语，意思为“黎明的第一缕光”。

阿隆交易信号

可以根据阿隆上升线和阿隆下行线推测趋势。Chande 推荐以下交易信号：

• 阿隆上升线在70以上，表明很强的上升走势。
• 阿隆下行线在70以上，表明下降趋势强劲。
• 阿隆上升线在50以下，说明上升趋势减弱。
• 阿隆下行线在50以下，表明下降趋势减弱。
• 二者同时位于地位且互相靠近，表明处于调整期，没有明显趋势。

阿隆指标的交易信号：

• 大于0，表明趋势上升。
• 小于0，表明趋势下降。
• 阿隆指标距0越远，趋势越强劲。

  
示例：

在CRB商品指数以及阿隆上升线和阿隆下行线。63日指数移动均线作为一个过滤器：位于均线上部的信号做多，均线下部的做空。

1. [S] 处当阿隆下行线（红色）向上越过70，并且当前价格位于63日移动平均线下方时做空。
2. [X] 处当阿隆下行线再次下降到50下方的时候平仓。
3. [?] 处不建议做多，因为价格在63日移动均线下方。

接下来几个月股票走势及建议交易详情如下：

1. [S] 处当阿隆下行线（红色）越过70，且价格位于63日均线下方时，做空。
2. [X] 处当阿隆下行线返回到50以下的时候，平仓。
3. [L] 处当阿隆上升线（蓝色）大于70，价格位于63日均线上方时，做多。
4. [X] 处当阿隆上升线重新回到50下方时，平仓。
5. 阿隆下行线位于70上方时，不建议做多，因为当前股价位于63日均线上方。接下来在[L] 处，当阿隆上升线（蓝色）上升到70以上，并在阿隆下行线上方时，做多。
6. [X] 处当阿隆上升线重新回到50下方时，平仓。如果阿隆上升线向下穿透下行线，那么这也是一个平仓信号。
7. 阿隆下行线穿过70时，不建议做空。因为此时股价在63日均线上方。如果此时做空，那么该笔单子将会在9日后当价格重新回到63日均线上方时止损。
8. [L] 处当阿隆上升线在70之上，股价在63日均线上方时，做多。

阿隆公式

1. 决定时间周期 ("n")
2. 从周期结束处向前数出尾部到最高点("HH")所用的天数。
3. 利用公式 [( n - HH )/ n ] x 100%，计算阿隆上升线。

例如，如果周期为25日，最高点是今天。那么 (HH=0)，阿隆上升 = (25-0)/25 x 100% = 100%。如果最高点发生在10天前，那么(HH=10), 当前值为 (25-10)/25 x 100% = 60%.

4. 自后向前数出到最低点("LL")的天数。
5. 利用公式计算阿隆下行线 [( n - LL )/ n ] x 100%

现在，我们已经得出阿隆上升线和阿隆下行线，我们可以计算出阿隆指标：

6. 阿隆上升线减去阿隆下行线。

阿隆评价

一个弱点是强调了前面的例子中，当价格做了一个假突破。下面的图表显示了错误的信号。阿隆下上升到100％，一条长长的尾巴，使一个新的25日低点的时候。阿隆向下突出的低，但强烈的接近是一个牛市的信号，表明买盘支撑。

阿隆指标评价

前面的例子中的假突破说明了阿隆指标的一个弱点。下图显示了一个假信号。当长尾K线走出25日最低点之后，阿隆下行达到100%。阿隆下行线强调了价格的最低值，但是收盘价却给出了一个牛市信号，预示着买方市场。

不过，我却对阿隆上升线和阿隆下行线的反映能力印象深刻。在相似的周期内，其结果可以与动向运动系统相媲美。

下面的CRB指数走势图以及阿隆指标、63日移动平均线、25日动向指标。较短期的14日动向指标被舍弃，因为它给出了较多的虚假信号。二者的反映灵敏度相似，[S] 处都给出了入场信号。动向指标可以让你在趋势中交易更久。二者的表现都可以通过使用长期移动平均线过滤作用得到加强。

尽管对阿隆指标印象深刻，但是我没有发现其在测量趋势强弱方面有特别的作用。

Aroon Oscillator
The Aroon Oscillator was developed by Tushar Chande to highlight the start of a new trend and to measure trend strength. Chande first described the indicator in the September 1995 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine. The Aroon indicator system consists of three lines: Aroon Up, Aroon Down, and the Aroon Oscillator which reflects the difference between the two. "Aroon" is a Sanskrit word meaning "dawn's early light".
Aroon Trading Signals
The Aroon Up and Aroon Down indicators signal the start of a new trend. Chande recommends the following signals:
• Aroon Up above 70 indicates a strong up-trend.
• Aroon Down above 70 indicates a strong down-trend.
• Aroon Up below 50 warns that the up-trend is weakening.
• Aroon Down below 50 signals that the down-trend is weakening.
• The two moving lower in close proximity indicates consolidation, with no clear trend.
Trading signals for the Aroon Oscillator:
• Above zero signals an up-trend.
• Below zero indicates a down-trend.
• The farther away Aroon Oscillator is from the zero line, the stronger the trend.
 
EXAMPLE
The CRB Commodities index is shown with Aroon Up and Aroon Down. The 63-Day Exponential Moving Average is used as a filter: only take long signals above the moving average and only take short signals below.
1. Go short [S] when Aroon Down [red] crosses to above 70 and price is below the 63-Day moving average.
2. Exit [X] when Aroon Down retreats below 50.
3. Do not go long at [?] because price is below the 63-Day moving average.
The next few months are shown in greater detail.
1. Go short [S] when Aroon Down [red] crosses to above 70 and price is below the 63-Day moving average.
2. Exit [X] when Aroon Down retreats below 50.
3. Go long [L] when Aroon Up [blue] crosses above 70 and price is above the 63-Day moving average.
4. Exit [X] when Aroon Up retreats below 50.
5. Do not go short when Aroon Down crosses above 70 because price is above the 63-Day moving average.
Go Long [L] the next day when Aroon Up [blue] crosses above 70 and above Aroon Down.
6. Exit [X] when Aroon Up retreats below 50.
If Aroon Up had to cross below Aroon Down while above 50, this would also signal an exit.
7. Do not go short when Aroon Down crosses above 70 because price is above the 63-Day moving average. This trade is stopped out when price reverses above the moving average 9 days later.
8. Go long [L] when Aroon Up crosses above 70 and price is above the 63-Day moving average.
Aroon Setup
The default time period for the Aroon indicators is 25 Days.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator — and Edit Indicator Settings to change the settings.
Aroon Formula
1. Determine the time period ("n")
2. Count back the number of days from the end of the period to the highest high for the period ("HH")
3. Calculate Aroon Up using the formula [( n - HH )/ n ] x 100%
For example, if the period is 25 days and the highest high is today (HH=0), Aroon Up = (25-0)/25 x 100% = 100%. If the highest high occurred 10 days ago (HH=10), then the current value would be (25-10)/25 x 100% = 60%.
4. Count back the number of days from the end of the period to the lowest low for the period ("LL")
5. Calculate Aroon Down using the formula [( n - LL )/ n ] x 100%
Now that we have Aroon Up and Aroon Down we can calculate the Aroon Oscillator:
6. Subtract Aroon Down from Aroon Up.
Aroon Evaluation
A weakness was highlighted in the earlier example when price made a false breakout. The chart below shows the false signal. Aroon Down rises to 100% when a long tail makes a new 25-day low. Aroon Down highlights the low, but the strong close is a bull signal, indicating buying support.
I am impressed, however, with the responsiveness of Aroon Up and Aroon Down. Results are comparable to the acclaimed Directional Movement System when set for a similar period.
The CRB index chart below shows signals from the Aroon system (and 63-Day exponential moving average) on the price chart — and Directional Movement (25-Day) below. The shorter-period 14-Day Directional Movement System was discarded as it gave too many false signals. Responsiveness of the two indicators is similar, with identical entry points at [S]. Directional Movement keeps you in the trend longer, but perhaps too long in this case. Performance of either system is enhanced by use of the long-term moving average as a filter.

While impressed with Aroon Up and Aroon Down, I do not find the actual Aroon Oscillator particularly useful as a measure of trend strength.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

本文来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/aroon_oscillator.php