估波指标（Coppock Indicator）

Edwin Coppock 开发估波指标仅仅是为了一个目的：去识别道琼斯工业平均指数牛市市场的开始。但是它同样也适用于其他商品指数或平均数。尽管通常会有所延迟，但是估波指标的交易信号通常比较可靠。唯一例外的是，在2001~2002年期间——看下图的红色箭头，说明，没有一个指标是完全可靠的。

交易信号

当估波指标自下而上穿过“0”的时候，表明牛市的到来。

 
示例

计算公式
计算估波指标：
1. 利用月收盘价计算出14个月的价格变化速率（ROC）。
2. 利用月收盘价计算出11个月的价格变化速率。
3. 将步骤 1 和 2的结果相加。
4. 计算出步骤3结果的10个月加权移动平均数。

计算方法有很多，为了得到更及时的交易信号，可以将月数据改为相应的日数据：294日ROC，231日ROC以及210日加权移动平均数。

Coppock Indicator
Edwin Coppock developed the Coppock Indicator with one sole purpose: to identify the commencement of bull markets. The indicator was devised for use on the Dow Jones Industrial Average but is suitable for use on other market indices or averages.
Although often late, the Coppock Indicator has produced reliable signals in the past, but two false signals in 2001/2002 — see the red arrows below — showed that no indicator is infallible.
Trading Signals
A bull market is signaled when the Coppock Indicator turns up from below zero.
Formula
To calculate the Coppock Indicator:
1. Calculate 14 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.
2. Calculate 11 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.
3. Add the results of 1 and 2.
4. Calculate a 10 month weighted moving average of the result.
There are a number of variations in calculation. For a more timely signal, try substituting the daily equivalent in place of monthly figures: 294 day ROC, 231 day ROC and 210 day weighted moving averages.

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/coppock_indicator.php