随机指标

随机指标是由Dr. George Lane 开发用来追随市场动能的一个指标。该指标由两条曲线组成：
• %K 将收盘价与最近的价格波动范围对比。
• %D 是%K 经过平滑之后的信号线。
随机指标的周期选择可以根据交易目标来确定：

 
慢性随机指标进行了进一步的平滑处理，提供的交易信号也更为可靠。

随机指标交易信号
如果随机指标在徘徊在100附近，说明买方力量集聚；接近于0轴则说明卖方市场。随机指标底部的形态也可以给出价格接下来反弹的迹象。浅且窄的底部说明空头力量微弱，反弹有可能强劲。宽而深的底部则说明空头力量强大，反弹幅度有限。同样，随机指标的头部也适用：狭窄的头部说明多头力量微弱，回调幅度大。宽且高的头部说明多头力量强大，回调可能微弱。

横盘整理期
下列交易信号按照其重要性排列：
做多信号
1、%D出现看涨背离，并且前期低点位于超卖水平线之下。
2、当%K或%D从超卖区域反转后做多。
3、当%K向上穿过%D时做多
做空信号
1、做空：%D出现看跌背离，并且前期高点位于超买水平线之上。
2、%K或%D向上升高到超买区域上方向下回调后，做空。
3、当%K向下穿过%D后做空。
做多时，在附近的价格低点处设置止损；做空则在附近的高点处设置止损。
%K 与 %D的方向一致，可以用来确认短期趋势的方向。 Lane同时使用经典的三重背离来确认走势。

趋势市场
要根据趋势方向选择交易信号。当慢性指标位于超买区时不宜做多，位于超卖区时不宜做空。利用追踪止损买入/卖出挂单进场并使用止损保护自己的利润。
做多:
如果随时指标 (%K 或 %D) 下降到超卖水平线下方，那么设置追踪买入止损挂单。进场之后，在附近下降趋势的低点处（交易周期的价格最低点）设置止损。
做空:
如果随机指标上升到超买水平线上方，设置追踪卖出止损挂单。进场后在交易周期的价格最高点处设置止损。
平仓:
利用趋势指标来确认平仓位置。

随机指标示例
慢性随机指标来显示交易信号。该研究集中在趋势市场中的追踪止损买入。英特尔公司估计以及21日MA（收盘价）作为趋势过滤器，7日随机指标    %K 、   %D。

 
1. %K 下降到 20下方。在当日价格的最高点上方$33 ½ 处设置追踪止损买入。
2. 根据第二日价格的最高点上调止损买入到$33。
3. 继续下调止损买入到第三日价格最高点的上方。
4. 下调止损买入到$32 1/2 – 第四日最高点上方一个点处。
5. 开盘价创下$31 3/8 的新低，继而上升直到我们在$32 ½的价位止损买入。在价格的最低点下方一个点处设置止损。这样即使价格跌破当日的最低点，我们也不会被扫损。
6. 当收盘价位于MA下方时平仓。

随机指标的设置
随机指标的默认设置为：
• %K - 5 日
• %D - 3 日
• 所有的指标线都是简单移动平均线计算得出
• 超买区域 - 70%
• 超卖区域 - 30%

公式
计算慢性随机指标：
1、第一步是决定交易周期（K%周期）。正常使用的是5日，但这应该根据你的交易时间框架调整。
2、通过将最近的收盘价与交易周期内价格的波动范围比较，计算出%K。        
           CL = 今日收盘价 - %K 周期内价格的最低价
           HL =%K周期内价格的最高价 - %K 周期内价格的最低价
           %K = CL / HL *100
3、通过对%K进一步平滑计算出%D 。默认是利用3倍于MA的周期，但这也可以根据你交易的时间框架改变。

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator was developed by Dr. George Lane to track market momentum.
The indicator consists of two lines:
• %K compares the latest closing price to the recent trading range.
• %D is a signal line calculated by smoothing %K.
The number of periods used in the indicator can be varied according to the purpose for which the Stochastic Oscillator is used:
Slow Stochastic incorporates further smoothing and is often used to provide a more reliable signal.
Stochastic Oscillator Trading Signals
If the Stochastic Oscillator hovers near 100 it signals accumulation. Stochastic lurking near zero indicatesdistribution.
The shape of a Stochastic bottom gives some indication of the ensuing rally. A narrow bottom that is not very deep indicates that bears are weak and that the following rally should be strong. A broad, deep bottom signals that bears are strong and that the rally should be weak.
The same applies to Stochastic tops. Narrow tops indicate that the bulls are weak and that the correction is likely to be severe. High, wide tops indicate that bulls are strong and the correction is likely to be weak.
Ranging Markets
Signals are listed in order of their importance:
1. Go long on bullish divergence (on %D) where the first trough is below the Oversold level.
2. Go long when %K or %D falls below the Oversold level and rises back above it.
3. Go long when %K crosses to above %D.
Short signals:
1. Go short on bearish divergence (on %D) where the first peak is above the Overbought level.
2. Go short when %K or %D rises above the Overbought level then falls back below it.
3. Go short when %K crosses to below %D.
Place stop-losses below the most recent minor Low when going long (or above the most recent minor High when going short).
%K and %D lines pointed in the same direction are used to confirm the direction of the short-term trend.
Lane also used Classic Divergences, a type of triple divergence.
 
Trending Markets
Only take signals in the direction of the trend and never go long when the Stochastic Oscillator is overbought, nor short when oversold.
Use trailing buy- and sell-stops to enter trades and protect yourself with stop-losses.
Long:
If %K or %D falls below the Oversold line, place a trailing buy-stop. When you are stopped in, place a stop loss below the Low of the recent down-trend (the lowest Low since the signal day).
Short:
If Stochastic Oscillator rises above the Overbought line, place a trailing sell-stop. When you are stopped in, place a stop loss above the High of the recent up-trend (the highest High since the signal day).
Exit:
Use a trend indicator to exit.
STOCHASTIC EXAMPLE
The Slow Stochastic Example illustrates the trading signals. This study focuses on the trailing stop entry technique used in a trending market.
Intel Corporation is shown with a   21 day exponential moving average (MA) and 7 day Stochastic    %K and    %D. The MA is used as the trend indicator with closing price as a filter.
1. %K falls below 20. Place a trailing buy-stop just above the day's High of $33 1/2.
2. Move the buy-stop down to $33, above the High of day 2.
3. Move the stop down to above the High of day 3.
4. Move the stop down to $32 1/2 - one tick above the High on day 4.
5. The day opens with a new Low of $31 3/8 and then rises until we are stopped in at $32 1/2. Place a stop-loss below the Low (i.e.. the lowest Low since day [1]). Thereafter, price falls back to the day's Low, but fails to activate the stop-loss one tick below.
6. Exit when price closes below the MA.
Stochastic Oscillator Setup
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator. The default settings are:
• %K - 5 days
• %D - 3 days
• Both are calculated using simple moving averages
• overbought level - 70%
• oversold level - 30%
Stochastic Oscillator Formula
To calculate the Stochastic Oscillator:
1. The first step is to decide on the number of periods (%K Periods) to be included in the calculation. The norm is 5 days, but this should be based on the time frame that you are analyzing.
2. Then calculate %K, by comparing the latest Closing price to the range traded over the selected period:
           CL = Close [today] - Lowest Low [in %K Periods]
           HL =Highest High [in %K Periods] - Lowest Low [in %K Periods]
           %K = CL / HL *100
3. Calculate %D by smoothing %K. The original formula used a 3 period simple moving average, but this can be varied, based on the time frame that you are analyzing.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/stochastic.php