艾略特波浪原则 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

拉尔夫•.纳尔逊•.艾略特，一个专业的会计师，在20世纪30年代研究金融市场价格运动时发现一些特定模式会重复出现。他以对股票市场预测惊人的准确率证明了他的发现。艾略特说，虽然走势看似随机而且毫无关联，但是如果你学会观察，你会发现一些可识别的形态。艾略特称其发现为“艾略特波浪原则”，其影响是巨大的。他发现了从金融市场到时尚、从政治到人类文化中驱动人类潮流的常见连系。

艾略特波浪国际的总裁Robert Prechter，1976年在纽约图书馆发现几乎尘封的艾略特的成果并使它重新焕发生机。Robert Prechter和 A.J. Frost在1978年联合出版了《艾略特波浪原则》。在这本书中，Prechter 和 Frost预测20世纪80年代会有一个巨大的牛市，之后会有一个创纪录的熊市。理所当然的，在20世纪80年代，艾略特波浪原则在私人和专业投资者中飞速发展。

当投资者和交易员第一次发现波浪形态的时候会有几个反映：

难以置信——市场可以模式化并且可以由技术分析高度预测；

过度高兴——找到了一个预测未来的水晶球；

最后是正确和有用的反应“哇，这是一个我应该学习使用的有价值的新工具”。

就像在自然界发现的任何系统或结构，你对波浪模式研究越深刻，你就会更加发现其结构的复杂性。它是结构化的，因为自然的模式是他们自己建立的，并以更大的尺寸建造类似的模式。你可以在植物学、地理学、生理、和人类创造的东西,像道路、住宅区……和——最近的发现并证实了的市场价格中看到这些分形模式。

自然系统，包括市场图表中的艾略特波浪模式，随着时间增长，他们的形式由成长中的间隔确定。

这里将解释其意义。当你的手在子宫中生长，他们最初看起来像船桨向四面八方生长。之后，手指之间地方的细胞停止生长或者死亡，然后形成五根手指。这种结构化的过程是任何东西生长过程中必不可少的。这种“间断生长”出现在股票市场中再正常不过了，正如艾略特国际波浪公司的总裁Robert Prechter, Jr所说的“一切繁荣必将衰落”。

基本波浪模式

波浪分析的第一步是在市场中确定模式。其核心很简单，只有两种模式，驱动浪和调整浪。

驱动浪由五个上升浪组成（编号为1、2、3、4、5），其走向和下一个更大规模的趋势相同。驱动浪之所以这么叫是因为它有力的推动市场。

调整浪由三个下跌波浪组成（编号a、b、c)跟随推动波出现,自走势和下一个大规模趋势相反。调整波只能纠正前面推动波的一部分。

一个完整的艾略特波浪由八个波浪和两个阶段组成。五波脉冲阶段，波浪由数字标记，三波修正阶段，波浪由字母标记。

艾略特用市场的实际行为陈述波浪形态的使用。在潜在主题上有许多变化，艾略特都精心进行了描述和讲解。他还指出了重要的事实，那就是每个模式都由可识别的的要求和趋势。通过这些观察，他制定了大量的波浪识别的指导方针。对这些知识全面的了解对理解市场会怎样和不会怎么都是非常重要的。

你才刚刚开始学习的力量和艾略特波浪原理的复杂性。所以,不要让你的艾略特波浪教育在此结束。加入艾略特波浪国际的免费俱乐部EWI和访问的基本教程:10课的艾略特波浪原理和并在你的交易和投资中尝试使用这个有价值的工具。

The Elliott Wave Principle

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott, a corporate accountant by profession, studied price movements in the financial markets and observed that certain patterns repeat themselves. He offered proof of his discovery by making astonishingly accurate stock market forecasts. What appears random and unrelated, Elliott said, will actually trace out a recognizable pattern once you learn what to look for. Elliott called his discovery "The Elliott Wave Principle," and its implications were huge. He had identified the common link that drives the trends in human affairs, from financial markets to fashion, from politics to popular culture.

Robert Prechter, Jr., president of Elliott Wave International, resurrected the Wave Principle from near obscurity in 1976 when he discovered the complete body of R.N. Elliott's work in the New York Library. Robert Prechter, Jr. and A.J. Frost published Elliott Wave Principle in 1978. The book received enthusiastic reviews and became a Wall Street bestseller. In Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost's forecast called for a roaring bull market in the 1980s, to be followed by a record bear market. Needless to say, knowledge of the Wave Principle among private and professional investors grew dramatically in the 1980s.

When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, there are several reactions:

Disbelief - that markets are patterned and largely predictable by technical analysis alone

Joyous "irrational exuberance" - at having found a "crystal ball" to foretell the future

And finally the correct, and useful response - "Wow, here is a valuable new tool I should learn to use."

Just like any system or structure found in nature, the closer you look at wave patterns, the more structured complexity you see. It is structured, because nature's patterns build on themselves, creating similar forms at progressively larger sizes. You can see these fractal patterns in botany, geography, physiology, and the things humans create, like roads, residential subdivisions... and - as recent discoveries have confirmed - in market prices.

Natural systems, including Elliott wave patterns in market charts, "grow" through time, and their forms are defined by interruptions to that growth.

Here's what is meant by that. When your hands formed in the womb, they first looked like round paddles growing equally in all directions. Then, in the places between your fingers, cells ceased growing or died, and growth was directed to the five digits. This structured progress and regress is essential to all forms of growth. That this "punctuated growth" appears in market data is only natural - as Robert Prechter, Jr., the world's foremost Elliott wave expert and president of Elliott Wave International, says, "Everything that thrives must have setbacks."

Basic Elliott Wave Pattern

The first step in Elliott wave analysis is identifying patterns in market prices. At their core, wave patterns are simple; there are only two of them: "impulse waves," and "corrective waves."

Impulse waves are composed of five sub-waves and move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size (labeled as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Impulse waves are called so because they powerfully impel the market.

A corrective wave follows, composed of three sub-waves, and it moves against the trend of the next larger size (labeled as a, b, c). Corrective waves accomplish only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress achieved by any preceding impulse wave.

One complete Elliott wave consists of eight waves and two phases: five-wave impulse phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by numbers, and the three-wave corrective phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by letters.

What R.N. Elliott set out to describe using the Elliott Wave Principle was how the market actually behaves. There are a number of specific variations on the underlying theme, which Elliott meticulously described and illustrated. He also noted the important fact that each pattern has identifiable requirements as well as tendencies. From these observations, he was able to formulate numerous rules and guidelines for proper wave identification. A thorough knowledge of such details is necessary to understand what the markets can do, and at least as important, what it does not do.

You have only just begun to learn the power and complexity of the Elliott Wave Principle. So, don't let your Elliott wave education end here. Join Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI and access the Basic Tutorial: 10 lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle and learn how to use this valuable tool in your own trading and investing.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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