格雷格.麦克法兰
你手中的柬埔寨瑞尔可能是最漂亮的风俗画，当你在吴哥窟和吴哥城享用他们的故事时，已故国王诺罗敦·西哈努克以庄严的面貌看左边的人。但是在国际贸易中，它们却没有那么多效用。事实上，绝大多数货币都存在在本国以外流通受限制的问题。尽管全世界有180多种货币在流通，外汇交易大多数时间仅涉及6种货币。这是帕托雷原理在真实应用中一个极端的例子。我们来列举一下这些货币和它们是怎样支配市场的。
所有的国际旅行者都能证实，全球对美元的需求是巨大的且没有激烈的竞争。在蒙古国乌兰巴托机场的出租车司机只收取一种外币，而且既不是卢布也不是人民币。由于一个相对稳定的政府，一个历史性动态经济，和始终不变的价值（低膨胀），美元称为了全世界实易的交换媒介。或者相对文雅一点的词汇，世界的主要储备货币。
美元是外国政府在国际交易中主要的储备货币。美国旅客在国外的优势很明显，但是美元的尊贵地位也使那些从未离开过国土的人受益。美国的个人和机构不仅可以在跨国采购中降低交易成本，还可以以更低的利率贷款。此外，由于美元相对其他货币的恒定的储备价值，使得进口到美国的花费更少。（虽然不可避免的是，美国出口则相应的更昂贵）
美元在世界各地的地位并不均衡。任何两种货币在市场中进行交易的时候，有44%的概率其中一种是美元。一些国家的经济和美国交织强烈或者依赖美国，这些国家已经非正式的接受了美元作为他们的流通货币。例如巴哈马元和百慕大元为例，已经被法定与美元完全等价。
货币交易当然需要第二种货币。当美元（或者任何其他货币）被交易时，绝大多数时间他们都被用来和直到这个世纪才以物理形式存在的欧元交易。作为从葡萄牙到芬兰、从斯洛文尼亚到斯洛伐克广大地区任意地区的官方货币，这个世界上流通第二的货币每天被超过五亿的非洲和欧洲人使用，在这方面甚至让美元相形见绌。随着欧元区的扩张，它今年开始迎接拉脱维亚和立陶宛在2015年的加入，欧元在外汇交易中的重要性只会增加。
经历过20世纪80年代并且有意识的美国人可能记得那时对日本走出废墟并在经济上统治世界的隐忧。日元相对美元的价值增加了两倍，日本也利用这个原因在美国各个机构的采购中获利。因为日本经济如此依赖国际贸易，日元在外汇市场逐渐变得重要。但是近年来，日本中央银行尽量保持利率接近零。美国联邦储备银行也采取了类似的政策，这导致的结果之一就是在过去几年里日元对美元的价值丧失了四分之一。
在20世纪50年代，美国的经济与其他国家相比具有比现在更强大的优势。即便如此，美元也没有赢得全球通用储备货币的称号。在大英帝国的衰落阶段，英镑不能完全的作为国际交易的媒介，一个自古以来它所占据的位置。更像今天的欧元，一些国家但不都是英联邦成员，把英镑视为与其本国货币同等效力或者适当的使用。现在，英镑是世界上第四大流通货币，在外汇市场中出现的几率是6%。
为什么英镑失宠了呢？简短的回答就是自然界没有真空。在第二次世界大战期间英国政府将英镑的价值设置在与美元固定的汇率。这不是要反过来证明后者重要性的事实。一系列的金融灾难导致英镑在1949年和1976年两次贬值，摧毁了谨慎的英国人的存款，从而巩固了美元作为世界储备货币的地位。
其中一个以英镑衍生出自己货币价值的国家及时从货币贬值中逃脱出来，澳元1966年发行以取代当时澳大利亚濒临崩溃的英镑，从那时起在和澳大利亚经济规模不相称的水平交易作为亚太和太平洋地区储备货币使用。近年来澳元在和其他主要货币交易时取得了巨大的地位，当前和美元交易价格已经接近历史顶峰。
另一种带有更大国际意义的货币是瑞士法郎。瑞士法郎是世界第六大交易货币，尽管被结合起来还没有美国几个县大的两个国家（瑞士和 列支敦斯登）作为法定货币使用。瑞士中央银行是另一个维持零膨胀率的中央货币机构，瑞士法郎对美元自2012年以来一只保持相当稳定。瑞士的政治稳定和分散的政治结构使瑞士法郎被全世界货币市场需求。瑞士没有准备加入欧元区，尽管周围国家都使用欧元。在整个西欧大陆，瑞士和挪威是唯一两个拒绝使用欧元的国家。
总结
一些投资者存储外国货币以避免在自己国家货币动荡时受到损失。另外一些人则投资那些不需要操作的信誉好的股票。不管什么原因，外汇是21世纪金融界重要的组成部分。货币运用的越多越稳定，人们交易它的可能性就越大。
The 6 Most-Traded Currencies And Why They're So Popular
By Greg McFarlane
Your Cambodian riel notes are probably great conversation pieces, the late King Norodom Sihanouk’s solemn visage glancing at the people to your left as you regale them with tales of your visit to Angkor Wat and Angkor Thom. But as international trading commodities, those notes don’t have quite as much utility. In fact, the overwhelming majority of currencies are of limited use outside their countries of issue. Even though there are 180 currencies in circulation throughout the world and majority of worldwide foreign exchange transactions involve a mere half-dozen of those currencies. It’s an extreme instance of the Pareto principle, with real-world applications. Here’s a look at those select currencies, and how they came to dominate the markets.
As any international traveler will confirm, the demand for United States Dollars across the globe is enormous and without serious competition. The cab drivers at the Ulan Bator airport in Mongolia will take only one non-Mongolian currency, and it’s neither the Russian ruble or the Chinese yuan. Thanks to a relatively stable government, a historically dynamic economy, and consistent value (low inflation) over time, the U.S. dollar serves as the de facto universal medium of exchange. Or to use the chosen term of art, the world’s primary reserve currency.
As the reserve currency, the U.S. dollar is the predominant one held by foreign governments for international transactions. The advantage to American travelers abroad is obvious, but the U.S. dollar’s exalted status also benefits those who never leave the country. American individuals and institutions not only save on transaction costs when purchasing across borders, but can borrow money at lower rates. Furthermore, imports to the United States cost less thanks to the U.S. dollar’s consistent store of value vis-à-vis other currencies. (Though the inevitable flip side to this is that U.S. exports are correspondingly more expensive.)
The U.S. dollar’s dominance across the world is not slim. Any time a pair of currencies are traded for each other in the marketplace, there’s a 44% chance that one of the currencies being purchased or sold is the redoubtable greenback. Some countries’ economies are so intertwined with or dependent on the United States’ that those nations have unofficially adopted the U.S. dollar as their own. The Bahamian dollar and the Bermudian dollar, for instance, are set de jure as exactly equivalent to their U.S. counterpart.
A currency transaction requires a second currency, of course. And when U.S. dollars (or any other currency) are traded, a plurality of the time they’re being traded for a currency that didn’t even exist in physical form until this century - the euro. As the official currency of everywhere from Portugal to Finland, from Slovenia to Slovakia, the second most-traded currency in the world is used daily by more than half a billion people throughout both Europe and Africa, dwarfing even the U.S. dollar in that respect. As the eurozone continues to expand – it began this year by welcoming Latvia, and Lithuania is scheduled come on board in 2015 – the euro’s importance in foreign exchange will only increase.
Americans who were alive and conscious during the late 1980s may remember the mildly xenophobic fear that Japan was finally about to emerge from the ashes of ruin and take over the world, economically speaking. The Japanese yen tripled in value relative to the U.S. dollar, and Japanese interests took advantage of this by purchasing positions in various U.S. institutions. With Japan’s economy so contingent on international trade, the yen became gradually more important in forex markets. But in recent years, Japan’s central bank has kept interest rates as close to zero as possible. While the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States has ostensibly adopted a similar policy, one result is that the yen has lost nearly a quarter of its value vs. the U.S. dollar over the last couple of years.
In the 1950s, the United States economy was even larger relative to the rest of the world’s than it is today. Yet even then, the U.S. dollar still had yet to claim the title of universal reserve currency. In the declining stages of the British Empire, the sun had not quite yet set on the pound sterling as the medium of choice for international transactions - a position it had occupied since time out of mind. Much like the euro today, several countries – most but not all of them Commonwealth members - used the pound either side-by-side with their own domestically minted currencies, or in place thereof. Today, the pound is the world’s fourth most-traded currency, appearing in about 6% of all forex transactions.
Why did the pound fall out of favor? The short answer is that nature abhors a vacuum. During World War II, the U.K. government set the value of the pound in terms of the U.S. dollar at a fixed rate. That it wasn’t the other way around testified to the reality of the latter’s importance. A series of British financial calamities led to the pound being devalued in 1949, and again in 1967, which decimated the savings of prudent Britons and, by extension, served to solidify the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
One of those countries that had derived its own currency’s value from the pound sterling got out just in time to escape that last devaluation. The Australian dollar was created in 1966 to replace Australia’s defunct pound, and has since gone on to serve as something of a reserve currency for much of the Asia-Pacific region and Oceania, trading at levels disproportionate to the size of the Australian economy. The “Aussie” has gained significant ground against other major currencies in recent years, and currently trades at close to an all-time zenith against the U.S. dollar.
Another country whose currency carries greater global significance than would be expected is Switzerland. The Swiss franc is the sixth most-traded currency in the world, despite being legal tender in only two countries (the other being Liechtenstein), which combined are smaller than several U.S. counties. The Swiss National Bank being another central monetary authority with a zero-inflation policy, the franc’s value has remained remarkably stable in terms of the U.S. dollar since 2012. Switzerland’s own internal stability and decentralized political structure have made the franc desirable in world currency markets. Switzerland has made no provision for ever joining the eurozone, even though every surrounding country uses the euro. In all of continental Western Europe, Switzerland and Norway remain the only holdouts.
The Bottom Line
Some investors want foreign currencies in order to hedge against the volatility of their own nations’ currencies. Others want a position in a reputable security that doesn’t require taking possession of anything physical. Regardless of the reason, forex is an integral part of 21st century finance. And the more widely used and reliable the currency, the greater the likelihood of people buying and selling it every day.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供