如何衡量外汇风险

最简单的事有时最难理解、最难接受，这看起来不可思议，但我在交易世界中遇到过很多这样的人，他们不知道如何操作账户，模拟账户不会用，真实账户就更不会了。于是我写下这篇文章，告诉大家如何规避风险。

外汇交易本应很简单，但是外汇新手或是没有学过如何交易的人，往往会把事情弄得很复杂。很多人先操作模拟账户，这是个好的开始。汇商会提供模拟账户，而模拟账户到手之后的第一步就是好好“玩”。怎么玩呢？就是随便交易，甚至把这里当作赌场，每笔交易都是一次赌博。模拟账户面临的风险和真实账户是一样的。

很多人的外汇交易第一步都是开一个10万或50万美元的模拟账户。模拟账户本身并没有错，但模拟账户的起始资金很大，交易者就可以做“大手笔”的交易，过程中是允许出错的。无论赚了赔了，管理不善早晚都会发生的，进行大手笔交易或是同时交易很多个货币对的时候就会出现管理不善的状况。新手的这些错误会导致不必要的结果。有些错误会形成习惯，在未来的真实账户中也会如此操作。真实账户的损失都是因为重复这些错误。人们做事会依照习惯，在真实交易中会引发致命的结果。

举例来讲，一个交易员开了一个真实账户，入金一万美元，并且每笔的交易量是账户金额的10%。假设他连续亏损十次，那么此时他的账户余额将不足入金量的35%。一个交易员要先学会自救，然后找到自己的节奏。在成为一个经验老道的交易员之前，即使赚不到钱，也要努力减少损失。

进入外汇市场要做的第一件事就是学会观察市场，不要像其他人一样鲁莽行事。每笔交易都不能超过账户金额的2%，这是一项交易求生技能，在这样的情况下，即使连续亏损十笔也有机会挽回。再好的交易员也会遭遇滑铁卢，你也会遇到的。亏损是交易中的常态，我们必须学会向前走。

再举一个例子，每笔交易都用账户的2%，即使连续亏损30次，你也仅仅损失了55%。这是一种交易生存技能也是机智的金钱管理方式。如果一个交易员连续亏损30次，那他在进行下一笔交易之前，应该好好反思他的交易策略出了什么问题。不要害怕纠正你的错误，交易和管理的意义就在于不断犯错再不断矫正。

很多人进入外汇市场，是因为外汇收益快，不用去正式的学校或机构培训就可以上手。损失35%很容易吗？非常不容易。但这种情况通常发生在新手和没有受过良好培训的交易员身上。我相信大多数交易员都遇到过这种情况。以我自身的经验来看，我见过交易员冒着爆仓的风险去交易。那些人都是自己摸索且没有受过资本管理教育的，你千万不要成为其中的一员。

How To Measure Risk in Forex

It seems incredible, but sometimes the simplest things can be the most difficult to accept and understand. While working in this exciting world of trading, I’ve met many people who have no idea how to manage an account, whether demo or even worse, a real account. I’m writing this article to shed light on how to work towards managing your risk.

Forex trading should be simple. Undoubtedly, those who make it difficult are usually the ones who have never traded the markets or been properly taught how to trade. Many first start with a demo account. It’s the best choice as a beginner and is offered by a broker. The first thing to do with a demo account is to “play” with it. The term “play” refers to meaningless trades and worse when they compare it to a casino, gambling in every trade and choosing a side. The beginner also risks amounts that have nothing to do with the reality of a real account.

When many begin to trade the Forex Market, the first thing they do is open a “practice” demo account for $100,000 or $500,000. There is nothing wrong with practice! By having such a large initial amount, the rookie trader will make “large” trades and there begins room for error. Win or lose, mismanagement will happen sooner or later. Mismanagement can be in the form of abusing the number of lots traded or trading many currency pairs simultaneously, both mistakes of the novice trader resulting in risking more than necessary. Some will turn these errors into habits and will repeat the same habits when trading a live account. Many of a trader’s large losses come from repeated bad habits when trading “practiced” accounts. Human beings act by habit, which in trading can be fatal if not overcome.

One example is if a trader opens a live trading account with $10,000 and risks about 10% per trade. Let’s suppose they lose 10 consecutive trades, which can happen. After the 10^th trade, their account is now 35% lower from their original investment. A trader should learn to survive first and keep a constant rhythm. If they’re not winning, they’re hopefully not losing large amounts before learning to become a seasoned profitable trader.

The first thing to learn when trading the forex market is to have respect for the market. Do not let it drain you just like most people who try. A trader should not risk more than 2% of their account. This is a trading survival skill. Even if the trader loses 10 consecutives trades using 2% of their account, there is still hope to make it all back in a timely manner. A slump happens to the best trader in the world; it could happen to me and could happen to you as well. Losing trades is part of this business and we must learn to keep moving forward.

Another example, if a trader risks 2% of their account in each trade and lose up to 30 trades consecutively, their account will only reflect about a 55% drawdown. This is an act of survival trading skills and smart money management. A trader who loses up to 30 consecutive trades should look into their strategy and figure out what is wrong before continuing to trade. Don’t be afraid to continue to trade and correct your mistakes. That’s what trading and management is all about.

Many get involved in the Forex Market because it can quickly make returns on your investment and they think that you don’t need to dedicate time in a formal school or institution. Is it easy to make up a 35% loss? Absolutely not. However, this situation is common amongst beginner traders and unfortunately a regular outcome of not being educated on how to trade before getting starting. I’m sure this has happened to most traders at some point in their lives. In my experience as a Forex Analyst and trader, I have met risk- taking traders who managed to destroy their accounts in record time. Do not be part of the vast majority, especially with those who want to self-teach themselves on trading and aren’t educated on capital management.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.financemagnates.com/executives/insights/how-to-measure-risk-in-forex/