长期形态三、头肩形态

头和肩

头肩形态由左右肩和头组成：头部高度高于左肩和右肩。右肩完成后向下突破颈线。颈线是两个波谷最低点的连线，并有可能向上或向下倾斜。向下倾斜的颈线带来的交易信号更可靠。

突破的距离可以根据头部顶点和颈线中部的连线来确定，可以按照该距离设置交易目标。

 
交易量对头肩形态的确认

• 交易量大规模集中在左肩；
• 头部交易量适中；
• 右肩交易量减少；
• 突破颈线后交易量迅速增加。

交易信号：

在突破颈线后做空。在右肩位置设置止损。

突破之后，价格通常会回升到颈线处，此时颈线转变成阻力位。在价格在阻力位反转的时候做空，并在阻力位上方一个点差处设置止损。
 
右肩高于左肩的头肩形态对交易信号的预示并不可靠。并且，颈线越平直，交易信号越可靠。

头肩形态的反转

倒置的头肩顶形态的颈线是两肩的连线，向下倾斜的颈线表示交易量动能的减弱，并不是有效的反转信号。突破的幅度可以根据头部和颈线的距离设置。

 
交易量对反转头肩形态的确认：

• 交易量集中在第一轮波谷中；
• 第二个波谷交易量适中；
• 第二个顶点交易量增多；
• 第二个波谷交易量减少；
• 突破后交易量激增。

交易信号：

在突破颈线后做多，并在右肩波谷位置设置止损。在反转信号出现后做多，并在支撑位上方设置止损。
 
颈线呈下降趋势的头肩形态（第二个顶点比第一个顶点低）对交易的指示性不强。颈线越平直，指示性越强。

Head and Shoulders Patterns
Head and Shoulders
A head and shoulders pattern consists of a peak followed by a higher peak and then a lower peak with a break below the neckline. The neckline is drawn through the lowest points of the two intervening troughs and may slope upward or downward. A downward sloping neckline is more reliable as a signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle peak down to the neckline. This target is then projected downwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
• High volume on the first peak,
• Moderate volume on the middle peak,
• Low volume on the third peak, and
• A sharp increase in volume on the break below the neckline.
Trading Signals
Go short at breakout below the neckline.
Place a stop-loss just above the last peak.
After the breakout, price often rallies back to the neckline which then acts as a resistance level. Go short on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick above the resistance level.
Never trust a head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly ascending (the second trough being higher than the first). Also, the more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.
Inverted Head and Shoulders
With inverted head and shoulders the neckline is drawn through the highest points of the two intervening peaks. A downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable as a reversal signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle trough up to the neckline. This target is then projected upwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
• High volume on the first trough,
• Moderate volume on the second trough,
• High volume on the second peak,
• Low volume on the third trough, and
• A sharp increase in volume at the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at breakout above the neckline.
Place a stop-loss one tick below the last trough.
There is frequently a correction back to the neckline, which then acts as a support level. Go long on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick below the support level.
Never trust an inverted head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly descending (the second peak being lower than the first). The more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.php