旗形形态是在趋势中形成的短期（1~5周）阻塞形态，它是长期趋势的调整和强有力的延续信号。
旗形形态
若将旗形形态走势的上端和下端分别连成一条直线，你会发现这两条线平行，而且该走势和和长期趋势相反。当走势突破这两条平行线形成的区间，则意味着旗形形态的完成。
杰克•施瓦格，著有《施瓦格期货 - 技术分析》，他发现即使旗形形态的走势和长期趋势一致（而不是和长期走势相反），也是可靠的。然而，很多交易者不同意这一说法。
例1：两个旗形形态形成于一个强劲的上升趋势中，它们高点和低点分别连成一条直线，可以发现它们的走势是和长期趋势相反的。
例2：下降趋势中的旗形形态。
1、 旗形形态[1]和下降的长期走势相反
2、 观察[2]、[3]处的价格走势并确定价格走势形态，你会发现形态的确认主观性非常强。
3、 [4]处是一个三角旗形形态。
三角旗形形态
三角旗形形态实际上是短期的三角形形态。在1~5周内，它的高点逐步降低，递减逐渐升高。高点和低点的分别连线相交，价格走势突破交点处就代表三角旗形态的完成。
例3：下图是上升趋势中的三角旗形，上端和下端价格的分别连线相交成一个短期三角形，随着价格越过该区间而完成。
交易量确认
交易量在旗形或三角旗形的开始时扩大，在形成过程中缩减，在突破后增加。
设置交易目标
在一个上升趋势中，突破距离为旗形或三角旗形的起点到最高点的距离，交易目标是突破后的价位加上该距离。
例4：上升趋势中旗形三角形。
1. 目标距离是根据三角旗形最低点（”V”底部价位）和最高点来确定的。
目标距离 = 3114 - 2885 = 229
2. [3]处突破后的目标做多点位为： 3088 + 229 = 3317
交易信号
有两种主流思想：
(A) 第一种思想是在突破后进场，并在趋势线的对应面外围一个点处止损。在上升趋势中，突破旗形或三角形的上方趋势线后做多，止损放在下方趋势线的对应处；在下降趋势中，突破下方趋势线后做空，并在对应的上方趋势线的外部一个点位处止损。
(B) 第二种思想是在突破之前进场，原因是三角形态预示的交易信号很可靠。由于止损和进场点很近，提前进场意味着较低的风险。然而，这只适用于三角形态，因为旗形止损点技术性相对来说不可靠。
例5：在交易区间的上方形成了一个三角旗形形态，突破之后形成第二个三角旗形形态。
1. 在9月份，股价上涨处遇到阻力位，形成一个很有前途的双重底结构。
2. 在阻力位的下方形成了一个三角旗形——一个很强的牛市信号。价格在此处受到阻塞而不是进行调整，并在[2]处向上突破。
3. 接下来四天，三角旗形的突破转变为空头陷阱，多头在[3]处顺利突破。
4. 一个大的三角旗形横跨阻力线形成——另外一个牛市信号。当价格在[4]处再次触碰阻力位，多头进场。
5. 在趋势线的下方（[5]处）设置止损，价格接下来再次试探趋势线，但是并没有成功触发止损，而是开始了一个强有力的增长。
6. 下方的交易量并不像预期那么完美，但是大的三角旗形形成之时仍然有所增加，并在形成过程中减少。
7. 大的三角旗形突破之后，交易量增加。
Flags and Pennants
Flags and pennants are short-term congestion patterns (one to five weeks) that form in trends. They represent pauses while a trend consolidates and are reliable continuation signals in a strong trend.
Flags
A flag is formed when parallel lines can be drawn through the peaks and the troughs in a correction (or a rally during a down-trend). The lines slope counter to the direction of the trend. The pattern is completed by a break outside the parallel lines.
Jack Schwager (Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis) says that he finds flags that slope in the direction of the trend (rather than counter to the trend) just as reliable. There are many traders who would not agree with this.
EXAMPLE
ANZ is in the middle of a strong up-trend. Two flags are marked on the chart. Lines through the peaks and the lines through the troughs are parallel and counter to the direction of the trend.
EXAMPLE
Telstra Corporation Limited (Australia) in a strong down-trend.
1. A flag forms with parallel lines counter to the down-trend.
2. Try to identify the flag or pennant between [2] and [3].
3. This will give you an idea of how subjective pattern identification can be.
4. The last pattern is a pennant.
Pennants
Pennants are really short-term triangles. They form with lower highs and higher lows, over one to five weeks. The line through the peaks and the line through the troughs converge and the pattern is completed by a break outside the converging lines.
EXAMPLE
Cellestis Limited (Australia) illustrates a pennant during a recent up-trend. The upper and lower lines converge to form a short-term triangle, completed by price gapping above the upper pennant line。
Volume Confirmation
Volume normally expands at the start of the flag or pennant, contracts as the pattern develops and then expands on the breakout.
Target Measurement
In an up-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start point of the trend (the breakout point at the base of the trend or most recent congestion pattern) to the highest high recorded in the flag or pennant pattern. The move is then projected up from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern), to arrive at the target.
EXAMPLE
The All Ordinaries (Australia) exhibited a pennant during a strong up-trend in October 2001.
1. The targeted move is measured from the high of the lowest day in the "V" bottom.
2. The upper boundary of the targeted move is the highest high recorded within the pennant.
Move = 3114 - 2885 = 229
3. The distance from [1] to [2] is then projected from the point of breakout (when price rose above the high of day [3]).
4. The target is calculated as the move plus the value at the breakout point:
Target = 3088 + 229 = 3317
In a down-trend, the targeted move is measured from the start of the down-trend (the breakout point from the reversal or most recent congestion pattern). The distance is calculated to the lowest low recorded in the flag or pennant pattern and then projected down from the point of breakout (from the flag or pennant pattern).
Trading Signals
There are two schools of thought:
(A) The first school will enter a trade at the point of breakout and place a stop-loss one tick outside the opposite trendline.
In an up-trend, the trade is entered on a break above the upper flag or pennant line. The stop is placed just below the lower flag or pennant line, in line (vertically) with the point of breakout.
In a down-trend, the trade is entered on a break below the lower flag or pennant line, with a stop placed one tick above the upper flag or pennant line, opposite the breakout point.
(B) The second school will enter a trade before the breakout point, while the pattern is still forming. Their reasoning is that the patterns are normally reliable and early entry means lower risk, as the stop is closer to the entry point. This is only makes sense for pennants, not for flags where there is no technically reliable point to place a stop-loss.
For pennants, place a stop-loss just outside the trendline, in line (vertically) with the point of entry, on the opposite side to the expected breakout.
EXAMPLE
Southcorp Limited (Australia) forms a pennant at the upper end of a trading range and then forms a second pennant after the breakout.
1. The stock encounters resistance at [1] before making a further trough in September - a promising double bottom.
2. A pennant forms below the resistance line - a strong bullish signal as the stock has entered a congestion pattern rather than a correction. The breakout at [2] is in the opposite direction to that expected.
3. Within 4 days the breakout has turned into a bear trap, with a break above the pennant at [3].
4. A larger pennant forms straddling the resistance line - another strong bullish signal. A long position is entered on day [4], when price respects the bottom trendline.
5. A stop-loss is placed below the trendline, in line with the previous trough. The stop is indicated by a horizontal trendline at [5]. Price again tests the lower trendline but fails to activate the stop, before making a strong breakout to form a new high.
6. Volume is not text-book perfect, but expands at the start of the large pennant.
7. Volume then contracts as the pennant forms.
8. Finally, volume expands at the breakout.
文章翻译由兄弟财经提供
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