肯特纳通道（Keltner Channels）

Chester Keltner在他的《如何从商品期货交易中获利》（1960）一书根据日内波幅倍数以及典型价格的移动平均线绘制出价格通道。 Linda Bradford Raschke 根据该原理，开发并推广了一个更为简化的版本，即利用指数平滑移动平均数以及ATR作为指标参数。
Keltner起初设计该通道是作为趋势交易系统，但是它结果表明，它类似于布林带以及包络线指标，同样适用于盘整期，

肯特纳通道的交易信号

第一步，识别市场处于趋势中还是盘整期。

盘整期
理论表明，价格如果先从通道的一侧开始运动，那么接下来就很有可能走向通道的另一侧。
• 如果价格从下通道内部或下部上升，那么做多。在价格回落至上通道边缘或下穿移动平均线时平仓。
• 当价格从上通道内部或上部下降时做空。在价格回调至下通道边缘或上穿移动平均线时平仓。
做多时，可以在最近的价格低点处止损；做空，则可以在最近的价格高点处止损。根据反转信号判断价格是否会在靠近通道边缘时回调。

趋势市场
Keltner 认为，价格只要不在通道内部，就可以有力的说明价格走势动力强劲并可以按照突破进行交易。
• 在价格突破上通道时做多。在移动平均线下方设置止损。
• 价格穿透下通道时做空。在移动平均线的上方设置止损。
Keltner 起初是用通道作为平仓标准，但是这显然不能够及时的保护仓位。

示例
处于下降趋势中的 RJ CRB 商品指数以及20日指数移动平均数、10日ATR指标以及基于2.5倍ATR的肯特纳指标。 
 
1. [S] 处当价格收于下通道下方时做空。
2. [X] 处平仓：价格上穿移动平均线。

示例 2
长线交易者或许更喜欢设置较长周期的移动平均线和ATR。下图是同样的价格走势图，但是使用的是63日指数移动平均数以及基于2.5倍21日ATR的肯特纳通道。
 
1. [S] 处价格收盘价位于通道下侧时做空。
2. [X] 处平仓：收盘价位于移动平均线上方。

ATR 通道的突破
Curtis Faith 在他的《海龟交易法则》一书中描述了海龟交易者使用的另外一种肯特纳通道。它基于350日指数移动平均数（收盘价），上通道线是7倍的350日ATR，下通道线是3倍ATR。
• 如果前一日的收盘价位于上通道线上方，那么次日开盘则做多。
• 如果前一日的收盘价位于通道下方，那么次日开盘的时候做空。
• 当价格反转穿过移动平均线的时候平仓。

快速上升的趋势
Linda Raschke 认为，肯特纳通道在判断市场是否逃离（价格加速上升，没有回调或者回调短暂）方面有很大作用。肯特纳通道提醒交易者：交易策略，比如逢低买进，应该结合市场行情。
肯特纳通道设置
下面是两种肯特纳通道的设置方法：
• 肯特纳通道的最初设置：基于典型价格的10日简单移动平均线，以及2倍的10日平均波幅作为上下通道。
• Linda Raschke开发的一种更为常用的肯特纳通道设置：基于收盘价的20日指数移动平均线以及2.5倍20日ATR。
不同倍数的ATR可以在通道上方或下方绘制出来。

肯特纳指标公式
最初的肯特纳指标，简单移动平均数的参数应用典型价格，（最高价+最低价+收盘价）/3。Linda Raschke 改进后的简化版本省去了典型价格，因为指数移动平均线本身就可以提供足够的平滑度。下面是简化版的肯特纳通道的计算公式：
上通道线 = 基于收盘价的EMA + ATR的倍数
下通道线=基于收盘价的EMA — ATR的倍数

肯特纳通道评估
肯特纳通道结合移动平均线操作可以很好的追随趋势交易，不会轻易的被扫损。

Keltner Channels (also known as "Keltner Bands")
Chester Keltner, in his 1960 book How to Make Money in Commodities, plotted channels as a multiple of daily range (high - low) around a moving average of Typical Price. Linda Bradford Raschkepopularized a simplified version, using exponential smoothing andAverage True Range, that is now more widely used.
Keltner originally devised the channels for use as a trend-following system, but they may also be used to trade ranging markets, in a similar fashion to Bollinger Bands or Price Envelopes.
Keltner Trading Signals
First, identify whether price is trending or ranging.
Ranging Market
The theory is that a movement that starts at one price band is likely to carry to the other.
• Go long when prices turn up at or below the lower band. Close your position if price turns down near the upper band or crosses to below the moving average.
• Go short when price turns down at or above the upper band. Close your position if price turns up near the lower band or crosses to above the moving average.
Place stop losses below the most recent low when you go long or above the latest high when short.
Use reversal signals to identify turning points close to the upper and lower bands.
 
Trending Market
Keltner believed that a close above the upper band, or below the lower band, is evidence of a strong move and should be traded as a breakout.
• Go long when price breaks above the upper band. Set a stop loss below the moving average and exit if price crosses below the moving average.
• Go short when price turns below the lower band. Set a stop loss above the moving average and exit if price crosses above the moving average.
Keltner originally used the lower and upper bands for exits, but these tend to be late.
EXAMPLE
The RJ CRB Commodities Index down-trend is displayed with the modified version of Keltner Channels with 20-day exponential moving average, 10-day ATR and Keltner bands set at 2.5 times average true range.
1. Go short [S] when price closes below the lower channel
2. Exit [X] when price crosses above the moving average
EXAMPLE 2
Long-term traders may prefer to use longer moving average and ATR settings. Here is the same chart, but with 63-day exponential moving average, 21-day ATR and Keltner bands at 2.5 times average true range.
1. Go short [S] when price closes below the lower channel
2. Exit [X] when price crosses above the moving average
ATR Channel Breakout
Curtis Faith in his book Way Of The Turtle describes a variation of the Keltner system used by the legendaryTurtle Traders. The channel is based on a 350-Day (exponential) moving average of closing prices, with the upper border plotted as 7 times 350-Day ATR and the lower border as 3 times ATR.
• Go long at the open if the previous day closes above the upper band.
• Go short at the open if the previous day closes below the lower band.
• Exit when price crosses back through the moving average.
Accelerating Trends
Linda Raschke maintains that Keltner Bands are of greatest value in determining runaway market conditions, often referred to as accelerating trends or blowoffs, when retracements are likely to be extremely short or non-existent. Keltner Bands alert traders that normal trading techniques, such as buying on dips, should be adjusted to fit the changed circumstances.
Keltner Channel Setup
Incredible Charts provides two versions of Keltner Channels:
• Keltner Channels (Original), using Keltner's first published settings: a 10-day simple moving average ofTypical Price and 10-day average daily range (high - low) with a multiple of 1; and
• Keltner Channels, the more popular version from Linda Raschke: a 20-day exponential moving average of Closing Price and a multiple of 2.5 times 20-day Average True Range.
Separate multiples of ATR can be plotted for the upper and lower bands.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator — and Edit Indicator Settings to change the settings.
Keltner Channel Formula
The original formula used a simple moving average of Typical Price, (High + Low + Close) / 3, but Linda Raschke's version dispensed with Typical Price, as the exponential moving average provides sufficient smoothing on its own. Here is the formula for the later, simplified version:
Upper Band = Exponential MA of Closing Price + multiple of Average True Range
Lower Band = Exponential MA of Closing Price - multiple of Average True Range
Keltner Evaluation
Keltner Channels are a useful enhancement for eliminating whipsaws when trading trends with a moving average system.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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