Casey Murphy 2015年11月24日
由于铜价跌到六年来的最低点使得全球大宗商品交易员都把注意力放到了铜价上。很多人担心中国需求的下降将会导致长期的下跌。在本文中，我们将关注铜现价、铜相关资产和这一变化对最大出口商的影响。
铜的下降趋势
观察下图，很显然由于供需差异价格处于下降趋势。更具体地说，亚洲和发展中国家和新兴市场的需求疲软使得供应过剩，而且这种趋势在不远的将来将会持续。从一个活跃交易员的角度看，我们希望看涨交易员保持观望直到价格克服一些关键的支撑，例如50日和200日移动平均线（分别为蓝线和红线）。
费利浦·麦克莫兰铜金公司
当分析铜市场时，许多活跃交易员自然的把注意力放到价格波动对全球最大的开采商的影响上。从图表中能看出，下降趋势开始在50日移动平均线穿过200日移动平均线并在下方时。最接近的支撑后面有几次尝试重新控制价格，但是50日移动平均线成为价格升高的主要障碍。要注意最近一次反弹12.54美元成为阻力位。最近几周的反弹失败表明下跌将持续并可能达到7.73美元附近的支撑位。看涨交易员要保持观望直到出现上升趋势。
阿伯丁智利基金
许多交易员在考虑铜的时候不会把智利这样的南美国家考虑进去，但是他们应该考虑。从经济学的观点看来，智利和全球其他地区相比的竞争优势是采矿和生产非常迅速。事实上，该国接近20%的GDP和60%的出口由铜构成。看一下下面图表，你会发现阿伯丁智利基金正在建立的下降趋势中交易并且没有出现在短期内结束的迹象。该图同样是50日移动平均数（蓝线）阻止升高的例子。这附近的支撑位被活跃交易员视为对他们更换订单的帮助。接近阻力位，交易的风险和回报自然下降，许多人会在50日移动平均线之上设置止损以保护仓位，最近这个价格是6.64美元。
总结
铜价最近移动到六年来的低点引发了许多活跃交易员的兴趣，他们正期待反弹。然而，根据上面的图表显示，下降趋势还非常完整并且阻力趋势线和50日移动平均线表明趋势明显趋于下降。
Copper Continues Its Descent
By Casey Murphy | November 24, 2015
Commodity traders around the world turned their attention to copper prices given the recent move to six-year lows. The decline has many traders frightened that the slowdown in Chinese demand is an early signal of longer-term downtrend. In the article below, we’ll take a look at the spot price of copper, copper-related assets and even how the move is impacting the largest exporter of the metal.
Copper’s Downtrend
Taking a look at the chart below, it is apparent that the momentum is in the favor of the bears due to a discrepancy in supply and demand. More specifically, weak demand across Asia and developing and emerging markets have outpaced supply and it appears that the downtrend is going to continue for the foreseeable future. From an active trader’s perspective, we’d expect bullish traders to remain on the sidelines until the price is able to overcome several of its key levels of resistance such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (blue and red lines respectively).
Freeport-McMoRan
When it comes to analyzing the copper market, many active traders automatically turn their attention to see how fluctuating prices of the commodity impact on of the world’s largest miners. Taking a look at the chart, you can see that downtrend was started when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average in what is known as the death cross (shown by the black circle). The close below the support was followed by several attempts to regain control of the trend, but the 50-day moving average (blue line) acted as a strong barrier to moves higher. It is particularly interesting to note how the recent bounce off of $12.54 coincided with a move toward the resistance level. The failed attempt to move higher over recent weeks suggests that the bears will continue to add pressure to the downtrend and many are likely waiting for the price to close below the nearby support level near $7.73 before entering a trade. Bullish traders will likely want to remain on the sidelines until bullish signals appear on the chart such as a close above the 50-day or 200-day moving averages.
Aberdeen Chile Fund
When most retail traders think of copper they don’t usually automatically think of the South American nation of Chile, but they should. From an economics standpoint, the competitive advantage that Chile has over much of the world is that it is very efficient at producing mining and producing copper. In fact, approximately 20% of the country’s GDP and up to 60% of its exports are comprised of copper. Taking a look at the chart, you can see that the Aberdeen Chile Fund (CH) is trading within an established downtrend and it doesn’t appear that it is about to end any time soon. This chart is also a great example of how the 50-day moving average (blue line) can act as a significant barrier to a move higher. The commonly found resistance near this moving average is often watched for by active traders to help them determine the placement of their orders. Given the proximity to the resistance level, the risk/reward of the trade is definitely in favor of the bears and many will likely look to protect their positions by placing a stop-loss orders above the 50-day moving average, which is currently trading near $6.64. (For more, see: Commodities Are Pulling Brazil and Chile Lower)
The Bottom Line
Copper’s recent move to six-year lows as triggered an interest in the metal by many active traders looking for a bounce. However, based on the charts shown above, the downtrends are still very-much intact and the resistance of trendlines and 50-day moving averages show that the momentum is clearly in the favor of the bears.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/112415/copper-continues-its-descent-ch-cupm-fcx.aspx