金价与油价的比率

金价和石油的关系

金价和石油价格倾向于同时上升或者下降，因为以下两点原因：
1、 从历史上看，石油的买卖时由黄金支付的。即使今天，很大一部分的石油收入被用于投资黄金。随着石油价格的上涨，在现有需求不变的情况下，更多的盈余被投资于黄金等硬资产。
2、  油价的上涨会给通货膨胀带来压力。这就使得黄金更受欢迎，因为黄金可以对冲通货膨胀。

下图始于1973年的赎罪战争（发生在以色列和其邻国间），战争导致阿拉伯禁运石油，油价从3美元/桶飙升到12美元/桶。1978年伊朗革命、1980~1988年的两伊战争、伊拉克1990年入侵科威特，随之而来的海湾战争对黄金价格影响有限。
 
至2001年9月，黄金一直处于衰退期。2003年的伊拉克战争导致黄金强劲的上涨趋势，接下来的伊朗核计划的紧张局势导致金价进一步上涨。

油价历史

油价在1973年的赎罪日战争之后开始飙升，另外一个价格高峰出现在1978年伊朗革命之时，紧接着的两伊战争导致油价进一步上升。沙特于1985年增加石油生产，1988年随着两伊战争的结束，石油产出进一步增加。1990年为恢复科威特主权的海湾战争导致了油价的短暂飙升。油价在接下来趋于稳定，1998年石油输出国组织增加石油生产，但是由于经济危机的影响，亚洲国家对石油的需求减少，油价暴跌。随着石油的减产，价格逐渐升高。2001年的9.11事件和2003年的伊拉克战争导致人们对石油短缺的恐慌感增加，油价进一步飙升。
 
读者需要注意的是，以上的价格未把通货膨胀计算在内。如果按照今天的通货膨胀水平，那么1980年全球经济危机期间，油价将会接近100美元每桐，金价会高于2000美金每盎司。

金价和油价的比率

消除上述图表中通货膨胀最简单的方法是计算金价和油价的比率，即一盎司黄金能买多少桶油：金价和油价的比率=黄金的价格（每盎司）/油价（每桶）

金价和油价的比率可以帮助我们鉴定超买超卖的入场机会。下图显示在过去的30年中， 8~10桶/盎司是金价和油价比率的一个非常强的阻力位。比率偶尔会高过20桶/盎司，但也只是持续了很短的时间。
 

黄金石油价格比率的信号

黄金和石油的价格比率可以帮助你识别：:
• 黄金的买入机会 ：价格比率低于10桶/盎司
• 黄金的做空机会： 价格比率高于或等于20桶/盎司

举例：

在2006~2008年的大部分时间段，黄金石油价格比率低于10的时候，显示的是买入的信号。
 
2008年下半年原油价格的快速下降扭曲了价格比率，产生了错误的卖出信号。从2009年中期到2011年，该比率一直在12~18的小幅区间内震荡。
 

The Gold-Oil Ratio
The Link Between Gold and Oil
Gold and crude oil prices tend to rise and fall in sympathy with one another. There are two reasons for this:
1. Historically, oil purchases were paid for in gold. Even today, a sizable percentage of oil revenue ends up invested in gold. As oil prices rise, much of the increased revenue is invested as it is surplus to current needs -- and much of this surplus is invested in gold or other hard assets.
2. Rising oil prices place upward pressure on inflation. This enhances the appeal of gold because it acts as an inflation hedge.
Gold Price History
The chart below starts with the Yom Kippur war between Israel and its neighbors in 1973 -- and the resulting Arab oil embargo when crude oil rocketed from $3 to $12/barrel. This was followed by the 1978 revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 which lasted until 1988. Iraq then invaded Kuwait in 1990, but the ensuing Gulf War had a limited effect on gold prices.
Gold went into a decline until awakened from its slumber on September 11, 2001. The invasion of Iraq followed in 2003, initiating a strong up-trend, and prices have lately spurred even higher as tensions escalate over Iran's nuclear program.
Oil Price History
Yom Kippur started a huge spike in oil prices with the Arab oil embargo in 1973. This was followed by another spike in 1978 at the time of the Iranian revolution, culminating with the subsequent invasion by Iraq and the start of the Iraq-Iran war. The Saudis substantially increased production in 1985 and the Iraq-Iran ceasefire further eased shortages in 1988. The invasion of Kuwait and ensuing Gulf war caused a brief spike in 1990, but a relatively stable period then followed -- until 1998 when OPEC increased production while demand was falling due to the Asian financial crisis, causing a slump in prices. Subsequent production cuts saw price recover, before September 11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq heightened fears of further shortages.
Readers need to bear in mind that the above prices are not adjusted for inflation. In today's dollars, oil traded at close to $100/barrel and gold above $2000 during the 1980 crisis.
The Gold-Oil Ratio
The easiest way to eliminate inflation from the above charts is to express the two prices as a ratio. How many barrels of oil you can buy with an ounce of gold:
Gold-Oil Ratio = Price of Gold (per oz.) / Price of Crude Oil (per barrel)
The gold-oil ratio helps us to identify overbought and oversold opportunities for gold. The chart below shows solid support between 8 and 10 barrels/ounce of gold over the last 30 years, with occasional spikes carrying above 20 but seldom holding for any length of time.
Gold-Oil Ratio Signals
The gold-oil ratio identifies:
• Buying opportunities (for gold) when the gold-oil ratio turns up at/below 10 barrels/ounce; and
• Selling opportunities when the gold-oil ratio turns down at/above 20 barrels/ounce.
EXAMPLES
The Gold-Oil Ratio displayed a buy signal, with values below 10, for most of 2006 to 2008.
A sharp drop in crude prices in late 2008 distorted the ratio, causing an incorrect sell signal. Since then, from mid-2009 to 2011, the ratio has oscillated in a narrow range betweeen 12 and 18.

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供，

本文来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php