费舍尔：美联储加息理由“十分充分”

美联储副主席斯坦利·费舍尔在周五表示了对逐步加息的支持。

费舍尔在智利央行举办的会议中表示：“加息的理由十分充分。”

他认为美联储距离2%的通胀以及充分就业的目标已经“相当接近”。

但是费舍尔并没有给出具体的行动时间，他只是提醒公众，未来充满未知，货币政策总是计划赶不上变化。

投资者们认为，美联储在下次会议上加息的可能性高达75%，而且在大选之后美股上涨，更为投资者们增添了信心。

副主席在演讲中花费了大量的时间来解释加息的任何“溢出”对外国经济来说都是“可控的”。

他相信溢出是会转移的，因为美国的利率正处于历史最低水平，还有很大的缓慢上升空间。

费舍尔说：“美联储加息的速度可能会很慢，可能比美国货币紧缩时期的速度还要慢。”

副主席这样说并不是因为盲目乐观。

事情可能会超出预期，他说：“路上有些坎坷总是难免的。”

但是2013年那样的“削减恐慌”是不太可能出现的，原因有很多，比如美国的经济环境正在改善，应该减轻全球风险，外国央行能够缓和紧缩政策的僵局，还有一些新兴市场经济体的基本面较三年前已有了显著提高。

Fischer: Case for Fed interest-rate hikes ‘quite strong’

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday signaled his support for gradual interest-rate hikes.

“The case for removing accommodation gradually is quite strong,” Fischer said in a speech via videoconference to a symposium sponsored by Chile’s central bank.

The Fed was “reasonably close” to meeting its target of a stable 2% inflation rate and full employment, which justifies action, he said.

Fischer did not lay out the precise timing for any moves, and cautioned that “the future is uncertain and that monetary policy is not on a preset course.”

Investors see a greater than 75% chance of a Fed interest-rate hike at its meeting next month, and confidence in a move is growing as the stock market DJIA, +0.21% rose in the wake of the presidential election.

The Fed vice chairman spent the bulk of his speech discussing why he thought any “spillovers” from Fed rate increases would be “manageable” for foreign economies.

He concluded that these spillovers will be mitigated because U.S. interest rates are likely to inch higher and plateau at historic low levels.

“The upshot is that U.S. policy rates are likely to increase more slowly, and by a lower cumulative amount, than in past episodes of U.S. monetary tightening,” Fischer said.

The Fed vice chairman went out of his way not to sound Pollyannaish.

Things might well unfold differently than expected, he said, and “there will almost inevitably be some bumps in the road.”

But another “taper tantrum” like 2013 was unlikely, he said, for several reasons, including that the U.S. economic conditions are improving and that should lessen global risks, foreign central banks can mitigate undesirable tightening, and a number of emerging market economies have markedly improved fundamentals relative to three years ago.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fischer-case-for-fed-interest-rate-hikes-quite-strong-2016-11-11