英国温和的大选结果以及欧洲小规模危机的终结

出乎所有人的预料，英国保守党当选并将成立多数派政府。这与金融市场过山车似的一周相吻合：上半周由于欧央行超宽松的货币政策面临解体的危机，资产价格大幅上涨；而下半周则以 “金发姑娘”美国的就业报告帮助稳定了大众的神经而结束。市场越来越悲观的气氛肯定不是来源于美联储主席耶伦对股票和债券市场过高估值的暗示，因为市场似乎已经在周五下午遗忘了该暗示。

由一个多数派政府而不是由多个混乱的、分裂的少数党联合执政，对于英国来说显然是一个好消息。这个较好的结果很快就通过英国较高的资产价格以及英镑的反弹体现出来。然而，我们相信困难才刚刚开始。保守党需要处理诸如苏格兰以及与欧洲关系等问题。然而，需要记住的重要一点是，除了政治问题，英国还面临着巨大的双赤字问题。经常账户以及财政赤字大约占GDP总和的10%；这是一个会让人们将英国与危机联系起来的水平，同时与世界其他国家一样，英国的经济增长也需要刺激政策。对于任何一个经济体或者金融市场来说，处理这类赤字都没有简单的途径，而且需要付出痛苦的代价。我们会在后续报告详细说明。

大选发生在欧洲资产令人不安局面之后。市场环境持续，投资者相信全能的央行有能力管理市场和经济。尽管近年来经济增长及其缓慢，但是考虑到央行的宽松货币政策，市场估值也已经达到历史的极值，投资者更加依赖央行的支持。投资者的自满已经达到令人难以置信的程度，他们认为只要有央行的支持就不会有任何可怕的事情发生，所以他们不关心基本面分析、盲目地交易。简单地说，在失效之前会持续有效，当上涨节奏跟四月中旬一样停止，大部分投资都没有机会撤资，因为在没有流动性的时候，价格会像瀑布似的飞速下跌。这些情况下，亏损会快速累积，他们几个月以来的盈利会在几日内亏空。欧洲本周似乎发生过这种情况。

不可能明确知道较小的危机会在何时发生以及原因是什么，事实上，紧随这些小危机之后的是快速地向上回调还是转变为真正的熊市都是未知数。我们能断定的是，它们是泡沫市场不可避免的结果，它会发生在央行撤出对市场支持的时候（瑞士央行在一月份取消对汇率干预，导致外汇市场中很多交易者大幅亏损），或者是市场参与者开始相信央行失去控制力的时候（回想一下1992年的英格兰银行）。

让我们以下图德国十年期国债为例子。在价格高峰，10年期国债的年收益是0.05%，这种趋势可以推测出10到期之后的累计收益仅为0.5%。当然，多头认为由于欧央行的宽松货币政策，收益率可能会低至-0.2%。因此，他们会选择在未来价格较高的时候卖给某人（假定是欧央行）。同时，任何一个头脑清醒的人都会说，年收益为0.05%的10年期债券具有存在泡沫的可能性。几乎不可避免的是，如果欧元价格从最高处下跌5.76%，你的4个月收益会在13天内化为乌有。对于那些持有意大利或者西班牙国债的人来说，由于年收益高于1%，债券期货价格会分别下降7.4% 和 7.1%。

债券的负收益率被很多人描述为疯狂的，投资者需要寻找别处来分配自己的资产。在国债收益率为零或者负数的情况下，许多人倡导买入股票，股票的收益率大于3%很常见，并且可以得到长期的资本收益。然而，下图中显示，在债券价格下跌的同时，德国的股价也相应下跌近10%。近期的小幅崩盘，欧洲投资者已经没有地方躲藏了。 

似乎美联储正在密切关注欧洲事件。尽管欧央行的负利率以及QE政策，但美联储仍然很明显地是在关心2008以后宽松的货币政策会带来什么意想不到的后果。在我们看来，美联储也确实应该关心，因为由于金融泡沫的破裂所产生的经济危机会带来各种衰退。事实上，美联储已经在15年内促成第三次经济泡沫的生成，而泡沫的破裂对经济的影响是巨大的。

我们可以从三天内有五位美联储官员就此进行讨论的事实看出美联储对金融稳定性的关心。诚然，美联储经常会讨论金融的稳定性，但是从近期新闻头条可以看出，他们现在比以往任何时候都担心巨大泡沫的产生：
美联储Kocher Lakota：警惕金融不稳定的风险（注意，Kocher Lakota是美联储最温和的理事）
GEORGE：货币政策很明显地存在冒险行为
Lockhart ：不要“过度担心”股票的估值（提示：很明显，他已经有点担心）
Evans：不要怀疑：股票市场处于高价位
Yellen ：股票市场的估值非常高。

去年年底结束QE政策，美联储一直在陈述一切都在他们的掌控之中。他们说经济发展良好。他们打算提高利率，但是疲软的经济数据让这件事变得复杂，同时，他们也希望在不产生任何恐慌的前提下降低金融市场的过高估值。目前为止，投资者信任美联储的叙述。他们在欧洲市场也这么做，欧洲市场已经开始小幅的危机，如果某一个小危机演化成大的恐慌，会发生什么？。

或许看待这些小危机的方式就像住在东京或者加利佛尼亚时刻受到地震威胁一样，只有当太阳出来天空变蓝，你的担心才会减少。然而，地震会导致暂时的恐慌，即使后来显示它只的震级很小。生活很快地恢复正常，但是内心深处，我们都知道“最大的那个”会如期而至。我们同样也知道“最大的那个”具有毁灭性的破坏力，当局将完全无法阻止它的到来或者保护人们的财产。较好的生活（就像投资牛市一样）意味着投资者时刻准备着面对小的地震，虽然当局开始警告他们可能出现的糟糕结果，但是投资者仍然麻木地认为他们会在危机更为明显的时候及时撤出。

周五美国利好的就业数据让投资者认为他们在一个阳光明媚、万里无云的早晨醒来。欧洲资产的小危机就像一个破坏力有限的小地震。监管当局一再警告，但他们仍想回归到“正常”生活。。

总的来说，英国大选的温和结果预示着欧洲似乎躲过了一场小危机。当局正在努力说服我们他们已经掌控了一切，这进一步鼓励了投机行为，推动了价格进一步上升。然而，我们将上周的结果视作对投资者的一个警告。当局薄弱的操控手段随时都有可能失效，或者他们会改变政策并有可能带来更大的恐慌。股票市场熊市何时到来是无法确定的，但我们相信继续留在大部分股票以及债券市场的风险性在逐渐增加。不幸的是，可以带来良好收益的安全资产很少，这也就是投资者继续投资风险资产的原因。那些避免投资具有明显泡沫资产的投资者的信誉是经受住严峻考验的，就像1999年、2007年或者1929年的情况一样。耐心会得到某种形式的回报。而当小危机逐渐扩大化，那些持有大量现金的投资者会非常欣慰的。
Stewart Richardson
首席投资官

Benign UK Election Result and the End of a Mini-Meltdown in Europe
May 14, 2015
Against all expectations, the UK elected a majority government returning the Conservatives to power. This coincided with financial markets ending a rollercoaster week on a positive note after a “goldilocks” US employment report helped steady nerves. During the first half of the week, it had appeared that the significant rise in asset prices fuelled by the ultra-easy monetary policies from the European Central Bank was at risk of unravelling. The increasingly bearish atmosphere was certainly not helped by mid-week comments from Fed Chair Yellen implying valuations in both equity and bond markets were very high; comments that seem to have been forgotten by Friday afternoon.
It is clearly good news that we in the UK woke up to a single party majority government rather than a messy and divisive minority or coalition. This better outcome was quickly reflected in higher UK asset prices and a rally in Sterling. However, we believe that the hard work begins here. There will be issues for the Conservatives to tackle, such as how to deal with Scotland and of course the relationship with Europe. However, it is important to remember that, politics aside, the UK has a massive twin deficit problem. The current account and fiscal deficits are approximately 10% of GDP combined; a level that would be associated more often with a country facing a crisis and, as with the rest of the world, growth has been anaemic considering the stimulus provided. We do not see any easy solution to tackling these deficits without pain for either the economy or the financial markets. We will no doubt discuss this in more detail in a subsequent note.
The election came at the end of a disturbing few days for European assets. The environment remains that investors believe in the omnipotence of central bankers and their ability to manage markets and the economy. Although economic growth has been incredibly poor in recent years considering the ultra-easy monetary policies pursued by central banks, investors have become increasingly reliant on the support of central banks as market valuations stretch to historical extremes. Investors have become incredibly complacent that nothing horrible can happen as long as central bank support continues and so they blindly pile into momentum trades with no regard for fundamental valuations. Simply put, this works until it doesn’t, and when the music stops as it appeared to in mid April, there is simply no exit opportunity for most investors as prices decline in waterfall fashion in extremely illiquid markets. In these conditions, losses mount very quickly and months of gains are wiped out in just a few days. That certainly appeared to occur in Europe this week.
It is simply not possible to know with any certainty when these mini meltdowns will occur and why, and indeed, whether these will be followed by swift upside reversals or morph into real bear markets. All we can say is that they are the inevitable result of bubble markets and will happen when central banks either withdraw their support as the Swiss National Bank did in January (causing significant losses for many in the FX market), or market participants start to believe that central banks have lost control (think Bank of England in 1992).
Let’s take the example of the 10 year German bond shown in the chart below. At the peak price, the yield to maturity on the 10 year Bund was 0.05% per annum, thereby guaranteeing a total cumulative return of just 0.5% over 10 years if held to maturity. Of course, the bulls were arguing that capital gains were on offer as the ultra-easy monetary policies from the ECB could force the yield into negative territory, perhaps as low as minus 0.2%, and that they could sell to someone else (presumably the ECB) at a higher price sometime in the future. Whilst that was always possible, who in their right mind could argue that at a yield of 0.05% per annum the 10 year bund was not in a bubble? Subsequently and almost inevitably, not only did the price of the Bund future fall by 5.76% from high to low, it took only 13 days to wipe out 4 months of gains. For those holding Italian and Spanish debt because yields were above 1% per annum, prices fell by 7.4% and 7.1% respectively, as measured by the bond futures price.
Whilst we have been far from alone in describing negative bond yields as insane, investors need to allocate their money somewhere. With cash at zero or even negative, many have been advocating equities where yields of more than 3% are available and there is the chance of long term capital gains. German equities fell by nearly 10% at the same time as the bond prices were falling as illustrated in the chart below. There was no place for European investors to hide during this recent mini meltdown.

It would appear that the FED in the US was watching the events in Europe closely. Despite negative rates and QE from the ECB, the Fed is now clearly worried about the unintended consequences of their ultra-easy policies since the 2008 crisis. In our view, they should be concerned because the economic fallout from bursting financial bubbles is so much worse that garden variety recessions. In fact, it beggars belief that the Fed has recreated their third bubble in 15 years, knowing that when this bursts the negative feedback into the real economy will be significant.
Their concern about financial stability can been seen by the fact that, in just three days, five Fed Governors have talked about it. Admittedly, Fed governors are often scheduled to discuss financial instability, however, when we read these headlines, we can only believe that the Fed is more worried than ever about the creation of a significant bubble:
KOCHERLAKOTA: FED IS ALERT FOR FINANCIAL INSTABILITY RISKS (Our note; this is from the most dovish Fed governor)
GEORGE: CLEAR THAT MONETARY POLICY HAS IMPACT ON RISK TAKING
LOCKHART: NOT “INTENSELY CONCERNED” ABOUT STOCK VALUATIONS (Our note; he is obviously somewhat concerned)
EVANS: “NO DOUBT ABOUT IT” THAT STOCK MARKET IS HIGH
YELLEN: SAYS EQUITY MARKET VALUATION QUITE HIGH
Having ended QE late last year, the Fed have been building a narrative that they have everything under control. They argue that the economy is doing just fine. They would like to raise interest rates but the weak economic outcome is complicating matters and they want to see less highly valued financial markets without creating any panic. So far, investors have been generally buying into the Fed narrative, but they also did so in Europe, and then the markets there went into a mini meltdown. What happens if the US has a mini meltdown which leads to a bigger panic?
Maybe the way to look at these mini meltdowns is like living with the threat of an earthquake in Tokyo or California, When the sun is out and the skies are blue you don’t worry. However, a tremor causes temporary panic, even if it turns out to be a minor. Life gets back to normal pretty quickly but deep down, we all know that “the big one” is overdue. We also know that “the big one” could be devastating and that the authorities will be utterly unable to prevent it or protect people properly. Living a good life (like being invested during a bull market) means investors are prepared to tolerate minor quakes, even when the authorities begin to warn that they could get worse because investors satisfy themselves they can leave when the risks become more obvious.
The decent US employment report on Friday meant investors felt like they are waking up to a bright sunny morning without a cloud in the sky. The mini meltdown in European assets was like a minor tremor and the damage was limited. They want to get back to life as “normal” despite warnings from the authorities.
So, to sum up here. The benign result of the UK election arrived as markets seemingly survived a mini meltdown in Europe. The authorities are working hard to convince us that they have everything under control which may encourage further speculation and push prices to new record highs. However, we view the action this past week as a warning to investors. The central banks fragile veneer of control could crumble at any time, or they may even choose to change policies that risk causing a larger panic. The timing of the start of a bear market in equities is uncertain but we believe the risks of staying invested in most equity and bond markets is both high and increasing. Unfortunately, there are very few safe assets that offer anything near a decent return, which is why investors keep reaching for yield in risky assets. The credibility for those investors who continue to avoid assets that are clearly in a bubble is being severely tested, as was the case in 1999 and 2007 and probably in 1929. Patience will be rewarded at some point, and those investors mostly in cash will be extremely pleased with themselves when the mini meltdowns turn into something bigger.
Stewart Richardson
Chief Investment Officer

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketviews.com/benign-uk-election-result-end-mini-meltdown-europe/