太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)对5年内全球股票和债券的预测

全球的债券平均回报率2%、股票收益在4.5%的情况下，债券巨头通过投资组合实现了对投资者年平均回报3.5%

“可预见时期内不会出现衰退”，债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司的Mihir Worah在近期的Morningstar投资会议中说到，指的是发达国家和别的主要经济体比如印度和中国。PIMCO的资产配置和真实回报的首席信息官指出，俄罗斯和巴西例外，但也证实基金公司预测发达国家在未来12~18个月内不会出现比位于较低位置的、缓慢上升更令人失望的情况。

PIMCO预测2015年英国和美国的GDP增幅将会达到2.5%、欧盟1.5%，中国6.5%——用Worah 的话说，除了为识别特定投资机会提供稳定的背景之外，“没有什么值得兴奋的”。

Worah告诉会议在座的500位投资顾问，接下来几年资产价格上升的主要驱动因素就是央行的政策。Worah 说，“利率不仅决定债券价格，同时也是任何长期资产价格的支撑。”并补充，因此我们不应该看到价格回到70年代、80年代或者90年代的水平。“如果我们判断正确的话，长期利率会维持低位，而这将有利于资产类别以及整个股市的估值。”他说。2007年之前，所有的央行一起加息或者同时降息。但现在，我们看到了不同：日本和美联储推出提高利率政策，而欧盟和英国却将2016至2017年的利率水平维持在相似水平。
 
资产配置专家说，目前的债券市场估值已经达到了历史上的高位，但没有被高估。同时，如果利率维持低位的话，股市市盈率也会维持高位。

五年预期
PIMCO预计在未来的5年，随着美联储在一两年内开始加息，资金的名义年回报率会从0上升到2%左右。

PIMCO也看到了发达国家债券2%的回报率，同时也解释了企业减持债券的原因（相对于别的长期资产配置）。就是说，债券仍然在那些可以抗击股市波动投资组合中起到重要作用。在政府的债券市场中，PIMCO的投资组合尤其减少了对美国公债的持有，欧元区政府债券以及日本国债持有量不变，新兴市场债券持有权重稍微加大。这样的一个仓位是为了保护资产，以防止PIMCO对未来几年内欠发达国家经济衰退的错误判断。

在全球的企业信用领域， PIMCO在整体上都非常重视。证券化债务持有的权重稍多。Worah说，企业喜欢那些受到美国房地产支撑的债券，因为美国房地产价格在接下来的一两年内有望平均增幅6~8%。别的领域，PIMCO略减持了企业债券的投资类别，稍微增持了高收益债券以及最低限度地增加了对新兴市场信用的重视度。

股市方面，接下来5年内投资公司的年增长率是4.5%。但值得注意的是，PIMCO减持了美国股票，增持欧洲，日本和中国股票。Worah 说，“一个月前，我们对股市保持防御态度，整体上保持中立”。“尽管我们不喜欢剩下的新兴市场，但我们就韩国股票建立了一个小仓位。”

一个平衡的投资组合包含60%的全球股票以及40%的发达国家债券，Worah说，期望未来五年内会达到3.5%的年平均回报率。

最后，Worah解释了公司对房地产市场的观点：“我们对商品及信托基金保持中立态度，看重与通胀联系的产品，稍微侧重于黄金。”PIMCO特别热衷于与通货膨胀联系密切的房地产市场——世界上的任何一个地方，除了英国。

“潜在的通货膨胀有可能从大部分市场开始体现，”Worah说。“但任何一个国际性的投资者都应该明白英国与通胀联系的投资产品是世界上最昂贵的投资资产，2015剩下时间的零售物价指数（PPI）有可能在1.0-1.5%之间，长期可能升高至2.0 -2.5%。

PIMCO's 5-Year Forecast for Global Stocks and Bonds
With bonds expected to return around 2% and global equities returning 4.5%, the bond giant see a balanced portfolio achieving about 3.5% per annum for investors
 “There’s no recession on the horizon,” said bond giant PIMCO’s Mihir Worah at the recent Morningstar Investment Conference, referring to the developed economies and other major economies including India and China. The CIO of Asset Allocation and Real Return at PIMCO noted Russia and Brazil as exceptions, but confirmed that the fund house doesn’t expect anything more disappointing than a very low, muted recovery in the developed world over the next 12-18 months.
PIMCO forecasts GDP growth of 2.5% for each of the UK and the US, 1.5% for the EU and 6.5% for China in 2015 – “nothing to get excited about,” in Worah’s words, but a stable enough backdrop to identify specific investment opportunities.
The major drivers of asset prices over the next few years will be central bank policy, Worah told the conference audience of 500 financial advisers. “It’s not just bond prices that are dictated by interest rates, rates are also the backdrop for the pricing of any long-term assets,” Worah said, adding that we therefore shouldn’t expect to see valuations going back to the abnormal levels of the ‘70s, ‘80s or early ‘90s. “If we’re right that long term rates are likely to remain low, that supports valuations across asset class and across stock markets” he said.
Prior to 2007, all central banks converged – raising rates together, and dropping rates together. But now we’re seeing a divergence, with Japan and the US Fed pushing for policy that raises rates, while the EU and UK are set to keep rates flat for 2016 and into 2017, according to Worah.
Current bond market valuation levels appear elevated on a historical view, but not overvalued. Meanwhile, if interest rates stay low, the higher equity multiples will stay high too, the asset allocation expect said.
Five-year Expectations
Over the next five years, PIMCO expects cash to achieve a nominal annual return over the period of around 2%, rising from zero as the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates over the next two years.
For developed world bonds, PIMCO also sees a return of 2%, explaining why the firm’s view is for an underweight holding in the bond market relative to what would be considered a normal long-term allocation. That said, bonds still carry out rthe important role in investor portfolios of providing protection against equity market turbulence. Within the government bond market, PIMCO’s portfolios are notably underweight in US government notes, neutral on core Eurozone government debt, neutral also on Japanese debt, and very slightly overweight in emerging markets bonds. Such a position is designed to protect assets in the case that PIMCO’s theory of no developed-world recession in the next few years turns out to be misplaced.
Amongst corporate credit, PIMCO is overweight on global credit as a whole, with a slight overweight holding allocated to securitised debt. Worah said the firm likes bonds that are backed by real estate in the US as it believes home prices will rise by 6-8% on average across the nation over the next two years. Elsewhere, PIMCO is slightly underweight investment grade corporate bonds, slightly overweight high-yield bonds and very marginally overweight on emerging market credit.
Turning to equities, over the next five years the investment houses’ outlook is for annual growth of 4.5% but PIMCO is notable underweight on US equities, while overweight on European, Japanese and Chinese H shares. “A month ago we got defensive on equity markets and run a neutral position on equities as a whole,” Worah said, “but we’re building a small position in Korean equities, though we don’t like the rest of the emerging markets.”
For a balanced portfolio containing 60% in global equities and 40% in developed world bonds, Worah said the expectation was that average annual returns of 3.5% could be achieved over a five-year period.
Last but not least, Worah explained the firm’s real assets view: “We’re neutral on commodities, overweight on inflation-linked products, neutral on REITs and very marginally overweight on gold.” One real asset that PIMCO is particularly keen on is inflation-linked…everywhere in the world except the UK.
“Underlying inflation is likely to start rising across most markets,” Worah said, “but you must understand that for any international investor a UK inflation-linked investment is one of the most expensive assets in the world, with RPI likely to be 1.0-1.5% for the rest of 2015, rising to just 2.0-2.5% longer term.”

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/137799/pimcos-5-year-forecast-for-global-stocks-and-bonds.aspx