美联储的延迟加息对日本和欧洲央行意味着什么

2015-10-12 14:38:11

黑石集团 2015年10月9日

一些市场观察家曾猜测美联储将会在本月的会议中提高联邦基金利率，然而中央银行似乎在9月不想有任何行动。

美联储的再次延期不仅对美国经济和市场有影响。我想这将导致欧洲央行和日本央行进行更多的刺激，最终对日本和欧洲的股票起到支持作用。

要了解事件为什么会这样，我们需要首先了解美联储利率上升和美元之间的关系。当美联储提高利率，以美元计价的资产例如美国债券通常会贬值，而收益率会上升。随之，国内外投资者都会蜂拥向这些资产，增加美元的需求，导致美元更加强势。

相比之下，在美联储9月会议之后，利率没有发生变化，美元贬值，而国外货币货币相对美元升值。

这不是那些货币价值低的弱势经济体希望看到的事情。他们希望美元强势帮助他们激活经济。当他们的货币比美元弱势，他们国家的货币就对国外客户来说更便宜，促进出口和经济增长。

因此如果美联储不采取行动，我们会发现其他中央银行，包括日本央行和欧洲央行，采取自己的货币刺激手段以削弱他们的货币。

低息贷款和对股市的影响

可能发生的持续低息贷款将是日本和欧洲股票市场引人瞩目的事件，而且在欧洲，大出口国德国将会尤为严重。当然，最终的货币政策和美元仍然有不确定性。根据美联储主席耶伦的最新评论，我认为美联储可能在年底加息。

但是无论什么时间加息，美元的利率仍会在近期维持在较低的状态。美联储已经声明将会缓慢加息并维持低利率更长时间，因为它试图在不破坏美国经济的情况下使货币政策正常化。

日本和德国的市场基本面

这也就是说，即使将来央行货币政策震惊市场，日本和欧洲（尤其是德国）的股票在近期还是相对具有吸引力的。在我看来，由于这些市场的基本面状况，这些市场的股票从今年夏天开始卖空的太多了。

What a Fed Delay Means for the ECB & BoJ

By Blackrock Author | October 09, 2015

While some market watchers have been speculating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the federal funds rate at its meeting this month, the central bank is more likely to do what it did in September: nothing.

The Fed’s continued delay has repercussions for more than just the U.S. economy and markets. I believe it’s also likely to lead to more stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ), which may ultimately support the case for stocks in Europe and Japan.

To understand why this is the case, here’s a little primer on the typical relationship between Fed rate increases and the dollar. When the Fed raises rates, the prices of dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasuries generally drop, while their yields correspondingly rise. In response, both foreign and domestic investors have tended to flock to these dollar-denominated assets, increasing demand for dollars, and leading to a stronger dollar.

In contrast, after the Fed’s September meeting, where the rate was left unchanged, the dollar dropped, and foreign currencies strengthened against the greenback, according to data accessible via Bloomberg.

This isn’t the scenario that economies with weaker currencies typically want. They want a stronger U.S. dollar to help fuel their economies. When their currencies are weaker than the dollar, their countries’ goods are less expensive for foreign customers, fueling exports and economic growth.

So, given a Fed on hold, we could see other central banks, including the ECB and BoJ, augmenting their own monetary stimulus measures in order to weaken their currencies.

Easy Money and the Impact on Equities

The likelihood of continued easy money is one of the reasons I see a compelling case for considering exposure to stocks in Japan and Europe, and within Europe, to large exporter Germany in particular. It’s true, of course, that the ultimate path of monetary policy—and the dollar—remain uncertain. Yet after recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, I see the Fed raising rates by year’s end.

But regardless of when liftoff occurs, rates are likely to remain low in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. The Fed has made it clear that it will raise rates slowly and keep them low for longer, as it tries to normalize monetary policy without damaging the U.S. economic recovery.

Market Fundamentals in Japan and Germany

That said, even if future central bank policy moves surprise the market, equities in Japan and Europe (and particularly in Germany) look attractively valued following recent market volatility. In my opinion, stocks in these regions have sold off too much since the start of the summer, given fundamentals in both markets.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：

http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/100915/what-fed-delay-means-ecb-boj.asp