现在是买入石油股票的好时机吗？

2015-10-29 13:31:56

Evan Tarver 2015年10月24日

石油股票在2305年遭受了重大打击。这次市场范围的石油股票(跌是因为消费需求的疲软、美国产量的大量增加、美元增值和企业利润下降。

截至2015年9月，石油股票被预测已经触底。如果如此，现在就是个买入石油股票的好的入场点。

石油股票将会在原油价格反弹中受益

原油是驱动石油股票价格的根本商品。2015年全球原油产量的大幅增加导致原油价格下跌了近50%。这种供应过剩导致石油公司延迟或者取消计划。

全球原油产量每天超过需求200万桶。然而，这一比例有望被调整。大多数国内主要生产过剩的能源公司，都削减了勘探预算。原油的供应在明年将会下降。

在另一方面，据预测原油需求在2015年将会每天增加130万桶，在2016年将会每天增加110万桶。供应和需求差异将会被填补，这将导致原油价格上升。需求的增加和供应的下降将会使石油行业再次平衡并将使石油股票受益。

例如，西德克萨斯中质原油期货现在交易价格大约为51美元每桶，较2014年8月的112美元大幅下跌。据预测该公司的原油期货将会在2016年达到62.25美元每桶并在2017年达到72.25美元每桶。一些人认为原油价格将会比预测高的多。石油大亨T. Boone Pickens预测在2015年年末将会达到70美元。

原油价格的上涨将会给行业带来更好的表现。现在的低价格石油股票为投资者提供一个便宜购买的机会。

许多主流石油公司的股价现在都过低，但是这将很快改变。Chevron的股价在夏天高点的时候为133美元，而现在仅在90美元左右。Exxon Mobil的股价当时为103美元，现在在80美元左右。

能源板块是牛市周期中的领导者。标普500自2009年以来每年都在增长，这意味着能源板块很快将会有良好表现。

分析人士最近更改了原来持有石油股票的态度，变得倾向购买。

寻求收益投资的投资者也将会被石油股票具有吸引力的股息吸引。石油股票价格的下跌也增加了股息收益，而且这些收益还将维持在高水平。

总体而言，石油行业正在处于被低估状态并将迅速反弹，现在是买入石油股票的好时机。

Is Now the Right Time to Buy Oil Stocks?

By Evan Tarver | October 14, 2015

Oil stocks have taken a huge hit in 2015. This market-wide decline in oil stocks is due to weak consumer demand, record production from the United States, a rising dollar and weaker corporate profits.

As of September 2015, it's speculated that oil stocks have hit their bottom. If so, now is the time to invest for a good entry point into the declining oil stocks.

Oil Stocks Will Benefit From a Rebound in Crude Oil

Crude oil is the underlying commodity that drives the price of oil stocks. Massive global production of crude oil has led to a 50% drop in the price of oil from its 2015 peak. This oversupply of crude oil has caused oil companies to delay or cancel projects, which has caused a decline in performance.

Worldwide production of crude oil exceeds the demand of crude oil by roughly 2 million barrels a day. However, that ratio is expected to adjust. Most of the major domestic energy companies, driven by overproduction, are slashing their 2015 exploration budgets. The supply of crude oil will begin to decline over the coming year.

On the other side, it's forecasted that crude oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels a day in 2015 and increase by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2016. The supply and demand gap will begin to close, resulting in firm oil prices. The increase in demand and slashing of supply will work to rebalance the oil industry and will benefit oil stocks.

For example, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading at roughly $51 per barrel, a sharp decline from the $112 it traded in August 2014. It's predicted that the company's crude oil futures will increase to $62.25 per barrel in 2016 and $72.25 per barrel in 2017. Some people believe that the price of crude oil will increase by even more than that. Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens predicts that oil prices will increase to $70 by the end of 2015.

The rise in crude oil prices will coincide with better performance in the oil industry. Today's low prices in oil stocks provide investors with an opportunity to buy at a bargain.

Many leading oil companies have underpriced stocks, but that may soon change. Chevron is trading at a large discount to its summer high of $133 per share; it's currently at levels around $90 per share. Exxon Mobil is also down from last summer's high of $103 per share and is currently trading at around $80.

The energy sector is a proven leader during the close of bull market cycles in the equities industry. The S&P 500 has been increasing every year since 2009, and people think that it should be coming to the end of its cycle. This means that the energy sector as a whole might soon perform better.

Analysts have recently upgraded many oil stocks from holds to buys. For example, Weatherford International and Superior Energy Services, two companies that operate services in the drilling process, have been upgraded. Weatherford and Superior also both provide equipment used in drilling for oil domestically and internationally.

Investors who seek income investments will also like the attractive dividends that oil stocks yield. The drop in the price of oil stocks has resulted in increased dividend yields, and those yields should remain high. For example, Chevron has a current dividend yield of 4.6% and Exxon Mobil has a dividend yield of 3.6%. ConocoPhillips, a lesser-known oil company, has a dividend yield of 5.3%.

Overall, the oil industry is in the midst of bottoming out and recovering, making it a good time to buy oil stocks.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/101415/now-right-time-buy-oil-stocks.asp