James Garrett Baldwin
由于人们一直期待的美联储加息，美元在2015飙升。与此同时，许多中央银行都削弱了他们的货币以刺激出口增长。由于这个和其他一些原因，许多主要的经济体的货币兑美元都出现大幅下跌。
全球经济事件和地区事件能相对一种货币削弱另一种货币。例如，通胀剧烈会影响消费者的购买力并使他们的储蓄贬值。如果一个国家的主要出口产品是大宗商品，大宗商品价格的下降将会影响他们的经济。
本文将列举出2015年兑美元大幅下跌的七种主要货币。
2015年各国货币的表现
新西兰元：2015年由于大宗商品价格的下跌和经济数据的推动使新西兰元兑美元下跌了12.21%。新西兰元的下跌主要归功于奶制品大幅下跌。2014年，奶制品占新西兰前20种出口商品的28.5%。
南非兰特：2015年，由于大宗商品价格的下跌和中国经济增长的放缓，南非货币兑美元下跌了32.31%。南非是非洲工业化程度最高的国家，但是很大程度上依赖其最大的出口目的地中国。虽然经济增长被限制，但是该国也正在经历新一轮的通胀压力。2015年该国的通胀率为4.7%。2015年11月，南非央行提高利率以应对通胀。根据《金融时报》的报道，滞涨已经严重影响该国经济。但是最重要的是，该国是硬资产的主要出口国，而这些大宗商品价格在2015年都有大幅下跌。根据最近的数据，黄金占该国出口的18.5%，而黄金价格在2015年下跌约10%。
挪威克朗：油价的剧烈下跌重创了挪威货币，因为该国的主要出口产品是石油。挪威石油出口量巨大，油价下跌给其经济带来剧烈的影响。根据该国最近的交易量，该国出口了价值948亿美元的石油和矿物燃料，大约占2015年出口的64.42%。挪威克朗在2015年兑美元下跌了17.48%。
俄罗斯卢布：由于经济持续受到制裁和该国经济缺乏多样性，俄罗斯经济继续处于泥潭中。俄罗斯经济严重依赖石油和天然气出口，这些大宗商品占该国社会预算的50%多。石油和天然气价格的下跌使俄罗斯卢布在今年跌入低谷。到目前为止，俄罗斯卢布在2015年兑美元下跌18.03%。而俄罗斯经济在未来还面临进一步的挑战。该国以原油价格每桶50美元的预期准备其2016年的预算。然而，布伦特原油价格徘徊在40美元左右，该国的经济发展部长Aleksey Ulyukaev表示新的预算将会将石油价格估计到40美元每桶。虽然这个数字不能使经济不稳定，但是将会阻止GDP在下一年的积极增长。这也意味着在2016年卢布对美元将受到进一步压制。
加元：由于石油价格下跌，加元兑美元在2015年9月达到11年来的最低点。在2015年，加元兑美元下跌19.49%，加元下跌的直接原因是石油和相关产品是该国的主要出口产品。石油出口占加拿大总共4390亿美元出口的18%。此外，精炼石油占4.2%，石油气占2.9%。矿产品出口1300亿美元，占总出口的29.6%。
澳元：澳大利亚是另一个受大宗产品出口影响巨大的国家。但是和加拿大不同，澳大利亚的经济依赖金属和农产品的出口。其中包括铁矿石、黄金、羊毛、铝、小麦和加工精炼这些产品的机械。中国是其最大的出口目的地，其经济增长也与澳大利亚经济紧密相关。大宗商品价格下降和中国经济增长放缓减少了该国的出口，因此其货币下跌。2015年澳元兑美元下跌了11.01%。
巴西雷亚尔：巴西曾一度进入全球最先进工业化程度最高的国家的行列。但是持续依赖能源产品开发和缺乏政治改革推动的环境使该国经济衰退货币下跌。石油和其他大宗商品价格的下跌也抑制了该国的长期前景。巴西雷亚尔在2015年兑美元下跌了40.40%，并且巴西2015年通胀率在6%以上。
总结
在2015年，由于全球投资者蜂拥涌向美元避险使美元上涨剧烈。美联储提高利率和其他央行的刺激性措施使美元兑其他货币进一步飙升。展望未来，由于美联储希望在未来几年利率正常化，美元可能进一步上涨。
Weakest Currencies against the U.S. Dollar in 2015
By James Garrett Baldwin
The U.S. dollar surged in 2015, strengthened by the long-expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, many central banks around the world weakened their own currencies, in part to stimulate export growth. As a result of these and other trends, many leading economies saw their currencies decline against the dollar as a benchmark.
Global macroeconomic events as well as local economic challenges can weaken the value one currency in relation to another currency. For example, rampant inflation drastically affects consumers' ability to buy goods for a consistent price and devalues their savings. Falling prices of a certain commodity (most commodities are priced in the U.S. dollar) affect a nation’s currency if the commodity is one of its primary exports.
This article provides a breakdown of the seven of the worst-performing currencies of 2015 as measured against the U.S. Dollar.
How Currencies Performed in 2015
New Zealand Dollar: In 2015, a downturn in commodity prices and economic data pushed the New Zealand dollar down 12.21% against the U.S. dollar. The poor fate of the New Zealand dollar can be attributed to a sharp decline in dairy prices. In 2014, dairy products comprised 28.5% of the top 20 commodity exports from the New Zealand market, according the the country’s most recent trade data.
South African Rand: In 2015, the currency of South Africa has declined by 32.31% against the U.S. dollar thanks to declining commodity prices and exposure to slowing growth in the Chinese economy. South Africa is the most industrialized nation in Africa, but it relies on China as its top export destination. While economic growth has been stifled, the country is also experiencing a bout of inflationary pressures. For 2015, inflation levels rose to 4.7%. In November 2015, South Africa's central bank raised interest rates to counter fears of inflation. According to the Financial Times, stagflation (a combination of inflation, low economic growth and high unemployment) has gripped the nation’s economy. But most importantly, the country is a primary exporter of hard assets like gold, platinum and iron alloys and this year saw a steep decline in prices for these commodities. For example, 18.5% of the nation’s exports are in gold, according to the country’s most recent trade data. Meanwhile, gold prices have declined more than 10% year-to-date.
Norwegian Krone: A slump in oil prices has hammered the national currency of Norway, as the country relies significantly on crude exports to finance its government. Norway’s export volume in crude oil is massive, suggesting a troubling level of specialization to its economy and great vulnerability to falling crude prices. According to the nation’s most recent trade volumes, the nation exported roughly $94.18 billion in oil and mineral fuels, which represented roughly 64.42% of its total exports for the year. Meanwhile, the krone is down 17.48% for the year against the U.S. Dollar.
Russian Ruble: The Russian economy continues to struggle due to ongoing sanctions against many financial leaders in the country and the nation's lack of economic diversity. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil-and-gas exports, and these commodities account for more than 50% of the nation's social budget. Declining oil-and-gas prices have pummeled the ruble this year. To date, the ruble is off 18.03% against the greenback in 2015. Further challenges lie ahead for the Russian economy. The nation had prepared its 2016 budget with expectations of $50 per barrel prices. However, as Brent crude hovers below $40, the country's Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev says that the new budget will be revised to include a $40-per-barrel estimate. While that figure is unlikely to foster economic instability, Ulyukaev says that it will prevent the nation's gross domestic product from turning positive in the year ahead. It will also mean further suppression on the ruble in 2016 against the dollar.
Canadian Dollar: The Canadian dollar slipped to an 11-year low in September 2015 as weakening oil prices weighed down the global commodity-producing nation. For the year, the Canadian dollar is down 19.49% against the U.S. dollar. The currency’s downturn is linked directly to the fact that oil and related petroleum products are the country’s chief export. Crude oil exports comprise 18% of Canada's $439 billion exports. In addition, refined petroleum comprises 4.2% and petroleum gas (2.9%). Mineral products represent $130 billion or 29.6% of its total export levels.
Australian Dollar: The Australian economy is another financial powerhouse that is heavily dependent on commodity exports. But unlike Canada, which relies heavily on petrochemical products, Australia's economy is boosted by the exports of metals and agricultural products. This includes iron ore, gold, wool, alumina, wheat and the machinery needed to produce and refine these commodities. Australia is also closely tied to the economic growth of China, which is its largest export market. The combined cool down in commodity prices and news that China's economy is growing at a lower rate than its expected benchmark has weighed down the nation's exports, and thus its currency. In 2015, the Aussie dollar is off 11.01% against the U.S. Dollar.
Brazilian Real: Brazil’s economy was once expected to evolve into one of the world’s most advanced and industrialized economies. But the nation’s continued reliance on resource development and a lack of political reform fueled conditions that produced a sharp economic downturn and falling national currency. Falling oil and other commodity prices have dampened the nation’s long-term outlook. The nation’s currency, the real, is off 47.40% against the U.S. dollar, and inflation is above 6% on the year.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. dollar has seen remarkable strength in 2015 as investors around the world flocked to the greenback for security. An expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve complemented by greater stimulus measures by other central banks around the world have sent the dollar soaring against rival currencies. Looking forward, the dollar is expected to experience more gains as the Federal Reserve moves toward rate normalization in the coming years.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/010516/weakest-currencies-against-us-dollar-2015.asp