这些货币在2016年将会面临一场灾难吗？

Andrew Beattie   2016年1月22日

一些货币可能在2016年受到致命打击。

澳元和加元

大宗商品货币已经处于低迷阶段，但是正如新闻报道中说的，他们现在正处于一个不上不下的位置。澳元和加元已经随着大宗商品的需求降低而贬值。需求降低的一部分原因是因为石油供应过剩，但是更大的一部分原因是因为中国和其他金砖国家经济增长放缓。这些新兴经济体增长放缓对大宗商品有重大影响，因为他们的增长阶段对煤炭、矿石和石油等大宗商品需求量巨大。

没有需求，大宗商品的价值就会下降，那些受大宗商品支撑的货币价值会随之下降。在某些情况下，货币价值的下降可以刺激这些国家经济的其他领域，如农业或者制造业。但是在整体效果上，其他行业的增长不足以弥补大宗商品货币国家在大宗商品贬值上受到的损失。目前，澳大利亚和加拿大都因为大宗商品价格低迷导致货币疲软，而且这种趋势将会在2016年持续。

雷亚尔和卢布

俄罗斯和巴西都被预测将会陷入经济衰退，他们的货币现在正在反映出这一预测。巴西是大宗商品价格下跌的一个受害者，其能源投资和矿业开采的回报都受到影响。和其他金砖国家一样，巴西的经济增长速度减缓明显，而雷亚尔正在为此付出代价。

俄罗斯的情况与石油下跌对卢布的严重影响类似。特别的地方是无止境的欲望使情况更加糟糕。俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突和在叙利亚问题上采取的态度使美国和欧洲加大对其制裁。除非石油价格剧烈反弹，否则卢布还将继续下跌，因为普京将不会改变他长期以来持有的态度。

人民币

把人民币的持续贬值称之为一场灾难有点夸张。和大宗商品货币不一样，人民币疲软使中国经济在国际更具有竞争力。然而另一方面是中国公民持有资本的国际购买力受到严重打击。许多长期投资人民币的交易者发现随着政府对货币管理的转变和新的不稳定性推动许多交易将以人民币作为基础货币，他们将获得许多交易机会。

总结

带有任何预测的警告的基准条件都会改变。也许伊朗的石油供应将使价格更低，或者地区冲突将限制产量，两者都有可能，但是没人知道将会发生什么。因此，加元、澳元、卢布、雷亚尔和人民将会随着美元的强劲而继续疲软。

How 2016 Could Be A Disaster for These Currencies 

By Andrew Beattie | January 22, 2016 

Some currencies that might be in for a kick in the teeth in 2016. 

The AUD and CAD

The commodity currencies have already taken a beating, but as they probably say in the mafia, why stop at kneecaps when there are still all those fingers and toes. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar - among others - have depreciated against the U.S. dollar as the demand for commodities like crude oil has waned. Part of this waning demand, of course, is the glut of oil, but there is also a larger story in the slowing growth in China and the other BRIC nations. This slowing growth in the emerging economies has an outsized impact on commodities as their growth phase is typically driven by increased production that requires a constant stream of coal, ore, oil and so on.

Without that demand, the commodity values drop and the currencies more or less backed by those commodities weaken in response. In some cases, this drop in currency can stimulate other sectors of the economies of these nations, such as agriculture or manufacturing. That said, on an overall effect, the wins for other sectors are usually not enough to replace the losses for the commodity sectors which is why these currencies are known as commodity currencies in the first place. Right now, both Australia and Canada have seen their currencies weakening as sectors that have driven steady economic growth struggle with low prices, and this trend looks to continue into 2016. 

The Real and Ruble

Brazil and Russia are both forecasted to deepen into recession and their currencies reflect that prediction right now. Brazil is a victim of the commodity slide that has affected both investment in its energy sector and mining industry returns. The market was already a bit sour over the real (BRL) and Brazil in general for reasons ranging from the unrest and risk around hosting the olympics to the Petrobras scandal that unfolded in late 2014 and 2015. Along with the rest of the BRIC nations, Brazil’s growth has hit a significant speed bump and the Real is paying the price.

Russia is in a similar situation with the oil price severely impacting the performance of the ruble. What makes Russia unique is a seemingly unending appetite for making things worse. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and the position it has taken in Syria aren’t expediting the removal of the sanctions from the EU and the United States. The ruble will continue to take a kicking unless energy rebounds hard because Putin is unlikely to change the course that has kept him in power this long.

The Yuan

It is a bit of a stretch to call a continuing weakening of the yuan a disaster. Unlike the commodity currencies, big sections of the Chinese economy become more globally competitive as the yuan weakens. The flipside of that, however, is that the cash assets of Chinese citizens take a hit as does their international purchasing power. Many traders who have stayed long the yuan saw their bets suddenly turn on them with the government shift in managing the currency and the new instability may push many deals from using the yuan as a base currency.

The Bottom Line

There is always the caveat with any kind of forecast that the base conditions used can (and will) change. Maybe the addition of Iran’s oil to the global supply will push prices lower or maybe a regional conflict curbs production - both are in the realm of possibility but no one really knows. As it stands now, the pain will continue for the CAD, AUD, RUB, BRL and CNY with the USD continuing to stay strong against all five.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/012216/how-2016-could-be-disaster-these-currencies.asp