Alan Farley 2016年2月2日
白银自从2011年4月的上升趋势结束后已经失去了大部分价值，在一个强烈的下降趋势中跌入五年低点之后丝毫没有停止的迹象。黄金下跌已经引起了媒体和市场的多方关注，虽然贵金属交易的基本面不同，但是白银交易者受到的影响同样巨大。
这种紧密相关性在未来几年将会持续，这两种贵金属都将触底并进入新的上升区间。在这些复苏趋势开始时的长期做多投资将会有很好的潜在利润，因此紧密关注两个在市场寻找价格即将上升的线索将会十分有价值。
白银的工业用途占其年全球需求量的一半。相反的，黄金主要的功能是在危险时期作为通胀对冲避险手段，仅有年需求的10%用于工业用途。这个区别告诉我们经济环境对白银价格的影响比黄金价格大。
鉴于其工业用途，白银投资者也应该关注铁和铜市场，这两个市场同样在2011年开始下跌趋势。在这种情况下，经济回暖对白银的影响将大于黄金，为白银提供比黄金更好的买入机会。
历史价格走势
白银100年价格图
白银在1915年到1962年的价格区间十分狭窄，维持在每盎司少于1美元左右。1962年的古巴导弹危机引发了白银价格持续六年的上涨，达到2.5美元。1971年进入一个新的上升趋势，1973年的阿拉伯石油禁运加速了价格上涨。1974年价格达到顶点，并维持五年时间，直到亨特兄弟试图垄断市场引发泡沫。
这种不平衡持续到1980年2月，白金涨到35.52美元并在接下来两年狂跌30点。接下来的20年它处于泡沫后的恢复期，最终在2003年进入新的上升趋势。价格在2011年超过1980年的高点，达到48.70美元并开始再次下跌。这个下降趋势在2008年10.12美元到达低点，现在在14美元左右。
当前市场驱动力
白银受大宗商品崩溃的影响程度与能源、金属、农业产品相同。许多分析人士认为多年来世界范围的央行紧缩政策使纸上资产比实物资产更有价值。回归传统的通胀预期将会使这些产品受益并结束熊市。
由于贵金属一直被作为通胀对冲手段，白银在价格上涨的环境中受益将大于其他大宗商品。2015年12月的美联储上调利率，为白银价格提升提供了条件。
然而，全球股票市场在2016年1月出现做空风潮，使得欧洲和亚洲的央行们重新制定决定通胀和白银价格上涨的宽松政策。美联储保持高利率但是改变政策措辞以表现对全球市场的担忧。
减弱的工业需求为2016年白银价格增加了另一个压力。美国多年来一直处于缓慢的增长模式，欧洲正在竭力避免经济衰退。与此同时，中国的经济增长自2012开始下降，专家预测这一情况将持续多年。金砖四国经济的强劲增长是白银价格在2011年到达历史最高点的主要动力。
2016年观察什么
白银价格自2001年起就经历了一系列的更高高点和更高低点。从技术角度讲，虽然在周图和日图上主要由下跌趋势构成，但是月度上升趋势还完好。要打破这一模式需要跌破2008年的低点（10.18美元），因此观察接下来几个月的走势十分重要。
如果白银维持在蓝线之上并在之后超过2007年17.09的高点，第一个上升信号就会出现。白银在2014年9月打破支撑水平，价格复苏将会在所有技术分析中出现买入信号。
总结
白银交易与黄金和铁和铜交易有相似点，因为其即使既能作为工业金属也能作为通胀对冲手段。因此白银这个下跌趋势的结束很可能与这些工具的复苏类似。
Will Silver Recover in 2016?
By Alan Farley | February 02, 2016
Silver has lost considerable ground since a 3-year uptrend ended in April 2011, dropping to a 5-year low in a virulent downtrend that shows no signs of letting up. While gold’s nearly identical decline has gotten the lion’s share of media and market attention, silver investors have been hurt equally, even though the precious metals trade on different fundamentals.
This tight correlation is likely to continue in coming years, with both metals eventually bottoming out together and entering new uptrends. Long-term positions taken at the start of these recovery waves will show excellent profit potential, so it makes sense to pay close attention to both markets, looking for clues about a fresh demand that will signal higher prices.
Silver has many industrial uses, accounting for more than half its annual demand worldwide. Conversely, gold functions primarily as an inflation hedge and haven in dangerous times, with just 10% of its annual demand focused on industry. This divergence tells us that economic conditions should affect silver prices to a greater degree than gold prices.
Given their industrial roots, prospective silver investors should also focus on iron and copper markets, which have ground out similar downtrends since 2011. In this scenario, an economic upturn is likely to lift silver into a position of strength relative to gold, offering a better buying opportunity when choosing between the two instruments.
Historical Price Action
Silver 100 Year Chart
Silver traded within a narrow range between 1915 and 1962, holding below $1.00 per ounce. The Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 triggered a breakout that continued for six years, peaking at 2.50. It entered a new uptrend in 1971, accelerating higher in 1973 in reaction to the Arab Oil Embargo. The metal topped out in 1974 and spent nearly five years grinding sideways, ahead of a historical bubble generated by Hunt Brothers’ attempts to corner the market.
That imbalance continued into February 1980, with the metal peaking at 35.52 and crashing to earth in a 30-point, 2-year decline. It spent the next two decades recovering from the broken bubble, finally entering a new uptrend in 2003. Silver exceeded its 1980 high in 2011, rallying to 48.70 and crashing lower once again. That decline has held above the December 2008 low at 10.12 so far, trading around 14.00 into the first quarter of 2016.
Current Market Drivers
Silver is caught in a commodity collapse affecting energy, metals and agricultural futures to an equal degree. Many analysts believe that years of deflationary central bank policy around the world has aggravated the decline by making paper assets more valuable than physical assets. A return to traditional inflationary expectations would benefit the group and likely end their bear markets.
Gold and silver should benefit to a greater degree than other commodity groups in a rising price environment due to precious metals’ historic identity as inflation hedges. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in December 2015, the first in nearly a decade, offered a step in the right direction, lifting both instruments off downtrend lows.
However, equity markets around the world sold off in January 2016, triggering shock waves that induced European and Asian central banks to consider fresh easing policies detrimental to inflation and higher silver prices. The Fed has kept higher interest rates in place but changed policy language to reflect concerns about global risks. Many market players are viewing these comments as a precursor to an outright repeal of the rate hike.
Slack industrial demand adds another headwind for silver prices in 2016. The U.S. expansion has been stuck in slow growth mode for years while Europe struggles to avoid recession. Meanwhile, Chinese growth rates shrunk since 2012, with analysts predicting the contraction will continue into the next decade. Torrid growth in that nation and other BRIC members provided the primary fuel for silver’s ascent to an all-time high in 2011.
What To Watch In 2016
Silver has held the series of higher highs and higher lows in place since 2001, despite the massive decline from the 2011 peak. Technically speaking, this tells us the monthly uptrend is still intact despite major downtrends in the weekly and daily time frames. It will take a decline through the 2008 low at 10.18 (blue line on a historical chart) to break this pattern, so it makes sense to watch that level in coming months.
The first sign of a new uptrend will come if silver holds above the blue line and then lifts above the March 2007 high at 17.99 (red line on historic chart). It broke down from that support level in September 2014, and a recovery will set off buy signals across technical desks around the world. It’s currently priced around 25% lower.
The Bottom Line
Silver trades in alignment with gold, iron and copper due to its double identity as an industrial metal and inflationary hedge. The end of its downtrend is likely to coincide with similar recoveries in those instruments.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020216/will-silver-recover-2016-slv-gld-jjc.asp