Andrea Travillian 2016年2月12日
如果你今年每天都在观察市场你会发现它像一个坏掉的过山车。糟糕的是，似乎全球市场都处于艰难挣扎中。在这样的环境中怎样挑选股票呢？是否持有资金进行观望或者把下降市场当成低成本买入的好时机呢？让我们来看一下市场正在面临的风头和一些在购买股票时需要牢记的基础知识。
需要记住的东西
市场上升和下降是市场永恒的规律。虽然看到你的投资组合正在下跌会很有压力，但是从2009年2月2日到2015年12月31日，市场上升了128.01%。由于很难预测市场将来的走势，揣测市场时机可能不是一个好主意。相反你可以把你的一部分投资组合分配到指数基金。利用指数基金可以平均你的投资成本。
正如那个说法一样，不断增长你投资组合的一个关键是减少你的损失。在遭受损失之后很难回本。持有资金和股票买入策略等待时机是保持你损失最小的关键。这给我们带来这个的市场看点，所以你可以尽量减小你的损失同时准备好迎接下一个市场增长阶段。
持续动荡
我们所经历的动荡将会持续一段时间。这有几个原因。首先，出现的消息好坏参半。一只股票刚刚宣布巨大盈利，另一只则宣布亏损严重。中国和石油行业的坏消息与就业率和房地产的好消息混合在一起，进入动荡阶段。
其次，尽管美联储进行了2006年以来的首次加息，但是不能满足那些收益率寻求者。那些人从他们的投资组合寻求更大的收益，他们将从投资的债券转移到高分红的股票。这将推动一些实业公司的股价继续上涨。因此虽然整体市场在下跌，你仍然不能找到那些优质公司股价的合理价格。
再次，许多投资者仍然对2008和2009年的糟糕情况记忆深刻。大多数人受情绪的驱动，使许多投资者在坏消息发生时退出股票市场以免经历他们之前遭受的巨大损失。这种情况在投资者快退休时更加严重。投资者收益和他们情绪持续驱动市场上升或者下降，直到市场稳定。
公司业绩
当公司不能通过有机增长持续盈利，他们会转向其他方式进行盈利，或者至少他们看起来是这样。首先他们会通过削减内部开支降低运营费用。之后他们开始进行合并和收购为公司带来更多的收入。最后他们通过例如股票回购等手段进行一些财务计划。
去年是自2007年以来进行合并和收购最多的年份。也是公司回购股票最多的年份。根据报道，2015年第三季度公司回购股票为1560亿美元。如果公司采取这些方式增加收入你在分析股票时一定要小心。确定一个公司是否可能需要在当前市场进行更多的调查。
持有资金还是购买股票？
当你持有的资金增加时你将因为上述因素保持持有资金还是购买可靠股票？在进行买卖之前注意以下问题，把他们当作你投资的指导。
利润稳定或者在增长吗？许多人认为天然气公司现在是很好的买入时机因为它们下跌浮动巨大。然而，在短期内市场不稳定。另一方面如果一个公司仅仅因为市场下跌而下降，他们仍然在增长而且基本面没有改变，那么就应该把手中的资金换成其股票。
股息稳定吗？股息占你买入一直股票回报的很大部分。如果一个公司的股息稳定而且股息分配率很低，那么你可以考虑买入他的股票。因为即使该股价没有上涨，你至少还能拿到股息。
如果市场继续下跌我持有这只股票五年不会有问题吗？换句话说，你足够相信企业并了解管理层能顺利度过经济下跌吗？
如果一只股票不能满足上面三个条件中的至少两个，那么不要进行投资并寻找满足全部是三个条件的公司。
总结
虽然市场在苦苦挣扎，持有所有资金意味着将会错过一些好的买入机会。花费一些时间了解一家公司和为什么它是这样的反应，在其达到你的预期价格时买入。
Cash vs. Stocks: How to Decide
By Andrea Travillian | February 12, 2016
If you have been following the market on a daily basis this year you may feel like you are on a bad roller coaster ride that won't ever end. To make matters worse, it seems the overall global economy is struggling to stay healthy. How can you pick a stock in this environment? Is it better to just keep your money in cash or is a down market a good time to buy stocks at a lower cost? Let's take a look at the head winds the market is facing, some stock market basics you should always keep in mind and what to look for when buying stocks.
Things to Remember
Markets go up and down. They always have and always will. While it may be stressful to see your portfolio go down, keep in mind that from Jan. 2, 2009 to Dec. 31, 2015 the market went up 128.01%. Since it's difficult to predict which way the market will go, market timing may not be a good idea. Instead you could allocate some of your portfolio to index funds. With index funds you could take advantage of dollar-cost averaging instead of keeping cash on the sidelines.
With that said, one of the keys to growing a portfolio is minimizing your losses. It is harder to get back to even after a loss. Market timing with cash and strategic stock purchases can be vital to keeping your losses as low as possible. This brings us to what to watch for in this market so you can try and minimize your losses while still putting yourself in a position to take advantage of the next stock market growth phase.
Continued Volatility
The volatility that we have been experiencing will be here for a while. There are a few reasons for this. First, the news coming out is mixed with good and bad information. Just when one stock announces great earnings, another announces terrible earnings. Add to this bad news coming from China and the oil industry and good news from jobs and housing. Enter volatility.
Second, even though the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2006 it was not enough to satisfy yield seekers. Those needing more income from their portfolios will continue to turn to stocks with higher dividends than what they could get by being invested in bonds. This chase for yield will continue to push many solid company stock prices higher. So while the market overall may be going down, you still might not find reasonable prices on quality companies.
Third, many investors still remember how bad it was in 2008 and 2009. Most are driven by emotions, causing many investors to move out of stocks when the bad news hits because they don't want to endure the large losses they previously experienced. This is especially true if the investor is close to retirement. Investors need for yield plus their emotions will continue to drive the market up and down until growth becomes more stable again.
Corporate Profitability
When companies cannot continue to grow earnings through organic growth they turn to other ways to increase their earnings or at least to make it look like they are. First they start to lower their expenses through internal cost cutting. After that they begin to turn to mergers and acquisitions as a way to bring more revenues to the company. Finally they begin to implement some financial engineering by doing things such as share buybacks.
Last year was the biggest year for mergers and acquisitions since 2007. It was also the year of the buy back, as companies continued to buy their own shares. According to FactSheet, in the third quarter of 2015 companies bought $156 billion of their own stock. With companies resorting to these measures to increase earnings you need to be extra careful in analyzing a stock. Making sure they really are a solid company will take more research in the current market.
Cash or Stocks?
As you continue to add to your cash position should you leave it in cash because of the above factors or can you buy any solid stocks? Following are questions to ask before buying. Use them as a guideline before moving out of cash.
Are profits stable or growing? Many may consider gas companies a great buy right now because they have fallen so far. However, the market is not stabilizing anytime soon. On the other hand if a company is just down because the market is down but they are still growing and nothing fundamental is changing then it may be time to move some of the money from cash to stock.
Are dividends stable? Dividends are a large portion of the total return you get on a stock. If a company has a dividend that is stable and they have a low dividend payout ratio, then you might consider buying it. If the price of the stock is not going to go up, at least you get the return from the dividend.
Am I okay owning this stock for at least five years if the stock market continues to tank? In other words, do you believe in the business enough to know that management can get through a downturn and come out on the other side healthy?
If a stock does not satisfy at least two of the three things above, leave your money in cash and look for companies that meet these requirements.
The Bottom Line
While the market is struggling, sitting in all cash means you may miss out on some good buys. Take the time to understand a company and why it is reacting to the market the way it is, then buy when it hits the target price you want.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/021216/cash-vs-stocks-how-decide.asp