认为石油价格将会上涨？做多加元吧

 

石油和加元在2016年初几乎同时跌到多年以来的低谷，这不是一个巧合。加元和油价有着一个正相关性，因为大宗商品是该国最大出口产品。当石油价格下跌，该国的出口收入减少。这将影响该国的经济健康从而影响其货币。当石油价格上涨，相反关系也成立。出口收入增加，其经济健康得到改善从而货币会升值。那些相信石油价格在长远看来会上涨的投资者可以通过投资加元对石油价格下注。

 

根据兴业银行一位分析师的说法，加元在外汇交易领域长期以来一直和石油保持着很高的相关性。经济学家把加元看成一种石油货币和大宗商品货币。

 

数据

2014年，加拿大是世界上第五大石油生产国。该国是美国最大的原油供应国。加拿大拥有世界上第二大的已被证实的原油储备。随着新技术改善石油开采的成本和效率，加拿大近年来的石油储备和产量有大幅增加。有些人认为加拿大的石油储备甚至已经十分接近沙特阿拉伯，因为有对沙特石油储备真实性的质疑。

 

机会

石油价格在2014年达到顶峰后迅速下跌。最初下降的原因是随着新供应的增加需求跟不上节奏。随着价格下跌，生产商不愿意削减产量而是维持原来产量，有些甚至在增加以保证其市场份额。2016年初，石油价格低于最近最高价格的三分之一，但是很多市场参与者已经认为石油价格将会上涨。石油是一个周期性大宗商品，价格的恢复只是一个时间问题。

 

那些对石油价格在未来回升有信心的人可以寻找途径获利。对未来石油价格看涨的投资者可以在期货市场做多原油。然而，直接投资原油期货可能不受投资者欢迎。期货投资风险高、复杂并且不适合所有投资者。幸运的是，有投资原油的其他方式代替直接投资原油。

 

那些不想直接投资原油但是想从石油价格波动中受益的投资者可以投资加元。通过对加元价值上升的下注，投资者实际上是压注原油价格上升，而不用直接购买石油期货。

 

未来的联系

在计划一个长期投资时，重要的是考虑是否在获利机会出现之前出现创造机会的基本面的改变。当谈到石油价格和加元价值的关系，只要加拿大的石油出口保持其在出口份额中的重要比重，石油价格就会影响加元的价值。鉴于加拿大的石油储备，石油在出口中的比重将会持续多年而且该国将会持续增加石油产量，其在石油市场中主要参与者的地位在近期将不会改变。

 

Long on Oil? Buy Canadian Dollars

 

By Michelle Toovey | March 08, 2016 

 

It is not a coincidence that the price of crude oil and the value of the Canadian dollar have plunged to multi-year lows as of early 2016, almost in unison. The Canadian dollar has a positive correlation to the price of oil because the commodity is the country's largest export. When oil prices depreciate, the revenue earned from exports decreases. This impacts the health of the country’s economy and therefore the value of its currency. When oil prices appreciate, the opposite event occurs. Revenue from exports increases, the health of the economy improves and the currency appreciates. Investors who are confident that oil prices will rise in the long run can bet on higher oil prices by investing in Canadian dollars.

 

According to an analysis from Société Générale, the Canadian dollar maintains the highest oil correlation in foreign exchange space over time. Economists consider the Canadian dollar a petrocurrency and a commodity currency.

 

The Stats

In 2014, Canada was the fifth-largest oil producer in the world. The country is the top crude oil supplier to the United States. Canada holds the second-largest proven reserves of crude in the world. Canada has grown its oil reserves and production rates dramatically in recent years as new technology has improved the cost and efficiency in which oil could be extracted from the Canadian oil sands. There is some sentiment that Canada, proportionally, has oil reserves even closer to those of top-ranked holder Saudi Arabia, as there is reason to question the validity of Saudi Arabia's reserve estimates.

 

Opportunities

Oil prices declined rapidly after peaking in 2014. The initial descent was due to new supplies flooding the market when demand could not keep pace. As prices fell, producers were reluctant to cut output and instead decided to maintain, and in some cases increase, output to defend their market share. In early 2016, oil prices were less than one-third of what they were at their recent peak, but many market participants are already looking toward the next rally. Oil is a cyclical commodity, and it is only a matter of when, not if, prices will recover.

 

Those who are confident in a recovery in the future can find a way to profit. Investors who are bullish on the future of crude oil prices can take up a long position in the crude oil futures market. However, investing directly in crude oil futures may be undesirable to some investors. Futures investing is risky, complex, and therefore not suitable for all investors. Fortunately, there are other ways to invest in oil other than directly purchasing oil futures.

 

Investors who want exposure to fluctuating oil prices without directly buying futures can invest in the Canadian dollar. By betting on an increase in the value of the Canadian dollar, an investor is in essence betting on an increase in the value of crude oil, without having to directly purchase oil futures.

 

The Future of the Relationship

When planning a long-term investment, it's important to consider whether there will be any fundamental changes to the relationship that created the opportunity before there is the chance to profit. When it comes to the relationship between the value of the Canadian dollar and oil prices, as long as oil exports remain a strong component of Canada’s exports, oil prices will influence the Canadian dollar's value. Given Canada's oil reserves, the fact that demand for oil will persist for years and the country's commitment to advance oil production, its status as a major player in the oil market will remain for the foreseeable future.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030816/long-oil-buy-canadian-dollars.asp