Jim Rogers认为衰退出现的几率是100%

时代在改变。从什么时候Jim Rogers开始喜欢美元了呢？对于那些不了解Jim Rogers的人，我能告诉你他是索罗斯的前生意合伙人，同时也是对长期大宗商品持看涨态度的投资者。

如果Rogers关于美元升值的观点是正确的，那么大宗商品价格将会出现进一步下跌。这对新兴市场来说不是个好消息。这将对包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国在内的新兴市场产生巨大影响。如果对这个名单感到熟悉，那是因为他们是俗称的“金砖四国”，许多年来一直是投资者投资的目的地。如果你现在观察这个名单，巴西和俄罗斯正处在衰退中，印度正在竭力维持但是很容易受到影响，而中国经济增长速度正在下降。

许多投资者都会指出国内政府数据表明经济正在朝健康发展，但是仍然有两个问题。第一，我们现在处于一个全球经济时代。如果一个主要经济体出现衰退，会对其他主要经济体产生影响。第二，正如Rogers指出的，我们不应该观看政府数据而是观察真实数据，其中包括工资税数据。现在的工资税持平，表明消费者收入没有增加。

扩散和工资税数据的概念十分有用。但是为什么Rogers突然开始喜欢上美元了呢？

美元

解释为什么Rogers喜欢美元的最简单方式是他相信明年有100%的几率出现衰退，而美元恰恰是一种避险方式。下一个问题，为什么Rogers认为美元是一种避险方式呢？

相对来说美元是世界上最安全的货币。我们已经为经济系统注入了很多流动性，但是还没有欧洲央行和日本央行多。Rogers正在卖出日元买进美元。日元曾被当作一种避险手段，但是日本央行的资产负债表已经到了一个难以置信的程度。这削弱了日元的价值。在欧洲央行一直发行货币的欧洲出现过类似的情况。

即使美联储没有采取任何举措，他也不会和他的同行一样平和。负利率的可能性已经完全被经济学家、亿万富翁投资者、格林斯潘和美联储内部人士否认。这里的原因很简单：如果在五个其他央行和经济体不起作用，为什么在这会起作用？

然后你必须考虑去杠杆化的因素。当偿还巨额债务减少美元的供应，将会增加其价值。如果Rogers是错误的并且以平稳速度发展达到美联储预期的2%通胀，那么美联储将会加息。这同样会使美元上涨。Rogers认为美元交易将会变的十分强劲并有引起货币泡沫出现的潜力。

衰退周期

Rogers最近指出通常四到七年会出现一次衰退，而现在已经过去了八年。这说明现在的经济比历史上的大多数时间都要强劲，这可能是个可笑的评估。真实的情况是美联储向市场投放了大量资金，这引起了过度债务和虚假增长。

Rogers在彭博社电视采访中说的一句话非常有意思：“在未来几年里世界上将会出现很多动荡，人们将会涌向他们认为的避险方式。在动荡发生时总是如此。”

当看到“避险方式”这个词时你首先想到的是什么？如果你和很多人一样，你会想到黄金。但是如果Rogers关于美元的观点是正确的，那么黄金将不是一种避险方式。事实上，黄金在印度和中国的需求正在持续降低。黄金税有望在印度被完全解除。此外，黄金从来没有在通货紧缩情况下升值过。如果这个理论是正确的，那么对把黄金当作避险方式的人将会承受巨大风险，他们的避险方式将不会起作用。

总结

Rogers对经济复苏并不乐观。而且，他认为明显有100%的几率出现经济衰退。同时他从大宗商品市场撤离并开始买进美元，因为相对的原因他把美元当成终极避险方式。如果他是正确的，那么黄金将不是许多人之前认为避险方式。而且黄金在基本面基础上显然不会很强劲。这也同时表面真正的避险方式是美元。

Jim Rogers Sees 100% Chance of Recession 

Times are changing. Since when does Jim Rogers like the U.S. dollar? For those of you who aren’t familiar with Rogers, he is a former business partner of George Soros, as well as a long-term commodity bull.

If Rogers is correct about the U.S. dollar appreciating, then commodities will take a further hit. This will not be a positive for emerging markets. It will have the biggest impact on emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia, India and China. If that list looks familiar it’s because it makes up the BRIC nations, which for investors was a great place to park money for many years. If you look at that list now, Brazil and Russia are in recession, India is holding its own but susceptible to contagion and China is slowing. 

A lot of investors will point to domestic government numbers showing signs of economic health, but there are two concerns here. One, we now live in a global economy. That being the case, if one major economy falters, it impacts other major economies. Two, as Rogers pointed out, instead of looking at government numbers you should look at the real numbers, which includes payroll tax figures. And payroll tax figures are currently flat, indicating no income growth for consumers.

The idea of contagion and payroll tax figures makes sense. But why does Rogers suddenly like the U.S. dollar?

U.S. Dollar

The simplest way to explain why Rogers likes the U.S. dollar is because he believes there will be a 100% chance of recession over the next year, and that there will be a flight to safety - the U.S. dollar. The next question: Why does Rogers see the U.S. dollar as a flight to safety?

The U.S. dollar is the safest currency in the world on a relative basis. We have added a lot of liquidity to our economic system, but not as much as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ). Rogers is selling the Japanese yen and going long on the U.S. dollar. The Japanese yen used to be known as a safe haven, but the BOJ has been expanding its balance sheet to incredible levels. This weakens the value of the Japanese yen. A similar situation has played out in Europe, where the ECB keeps printing. 

Even if the Federal Reserve doesn’t move at all, it’s not as dovish as its peers. This is bullish for the U.S. dollar. In regards to the potential for negative interest rates (which would hurt the U.S. dollar), the idea has been absolutely torched by economists, billionaire investors, Alan Greenspan and even some within the Federal Reserve. The thinking here is simple: If it hasn’t worked for five other central banks and their economies, why would it work here?

Then you have to factor in deleveraging. When massive debts are paid off it reduces the supply of U.S. dollars, which then increases their value. And if Rogers is wrong and the economy improves on a sustainable basis with the Federal Reserve hitting its dual mandate of full employment and 2% inflation, then the Fed will hike rates. This is also bullish for the U.S. dollar. Rogers thinks that the U.S. dollar trade can become so powerful that it has the potential to lead to a bubble in the currency.

Recession Call

Rogers recently pointed out that we usually have a recession an average every 4-7 years and that there hasn’t been a recession in the past eight. This would mean that the economy is stronger than at most times throughout history, which would be a laughable assessment. What’s really taking place is that the Federal Reserve pumped money into the system, which led to excessive debts and artificial growth.

One quote Rogers made on Bloomberg TV is particularly interesting: “There is going to be so much turmoil in the world over the next couple of years, people are going to flee to what they think is a safe haven. This always happens when there’s turmoil.”

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you read “safe haven?” If you’re like most people, it’s gold. But if Rogers is correct about the U.S. dollar, then gold will not be a safe haven. In fact, gold demand is consistently waning in India (the largest consumers of gold) and China. And a gold tax that was expected to be lifted in India remained intact. Furthermore, gold has never appreciated in a deflationary environment (we have deflation without central bank intervention). The risk is large because if this theory is correct and scores of investors rush to gold, then their safe haven will turn to dust. For disclosure purposes, I’m shorting gold miners. 

The Bottom Line

Rogers is not optimistic about an economic recovery. Instead, he sees a 100% chance of a recession within the next year. He has also moved away from commodities and switched to long on the U.S. dollar, seeing it as the ultimate safe haven for relative reasons. If he’s correct, then gold is not the safe haven that many perceive it to be. And gold is certainly not strong on a fundamental basis. It also means the real safe haven will be the U.S. dollar. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031616/jim-rogers-sees-100-chance-recession.asp