2016年推动黄金价格上涨的因素

根据伦敦标价日黄金价格走势的数据，黄金以1082美元每盎司在2016年开始交易，这个价格在2月26日上升到1226美元。Gold Trust ETF以101.46美元的价格在2016年开始交易，到2月末上涨17%达到118.76美元。在2016年的头两个月，黄金价格的上涨主要是由世界经济不稳定造成的，利率和通胀预期为资本流向黄金创造了必要条件。分析人士认为黄金在2016年后三个季度将会出现上升后的涨跌交替，但是大多数预测都认为黄金会下跌或者上涨浮动很小。美联储将会继续进行缓慢加息，而全球的通胀压力仍然十分强劲。随着主要股票市场的逐渐稳定，似乎催动黄金价格上涨的主要因素正在减弱。

 

不稳定性

黄金通常被用为投资组合中的对冲，预防不利的货币、财政和宏观条件。历史上投资者在不稳定和不确定中都会涌向黄金，主要是因为它不受工业产量的影响和其作为传统货币的用途。2016年的头两个月，全球经济出现大量的不确定因素。不详的预兆引发中国股票的大幅下跌。低廉的能源和大宗商品价格继续影响以他们为主要出口产品的经济体。

 

包括巴西和阿根廷在内的南美国家出现了动荡和高通货膨胀，巴西的GDP继续缩减。欧洲出现高失业率和低产能利用率以及财政问题，出现了对货币政策能否有效刺激经济增长的担忧。大宗商品价格急剧下跌，公司惨淡收入引发了可能出现经济衰退的担忧，并且美股开始收税。

 

这些负责的环境和许多全球流行市场中不同资产明确的风险使投资者失去信心。由于黄金传统的对冲作用，黄金需求受到投资者恐惧情绪的刺激大幅增加。2016年初黄金价格上涨主要是由其他资产的恐慌和不确定引起的。

 

低廉的机会成本

在不确定性充斥着全球市场的情况下，低通胀率加速了资金流向黄金和相关证券。资本从中国股票市场流出，欧洲和美国的低利率则降低了对其政府债券的需求。2016年初，利率受多年扩张性货币政策的影响还保持在低水平。虽然美联储宣布了继续缓慢提高利率的意图，其他央行却进一步削减利率或者放弃正常化。日本央行和欧洲央行将名义利率推到了负值，这是一个非常极端的措施。

 

股票价格下跌和来自全球财务部长们的压力使许多人猜测美联储的利率正常化速度将会放缓。黄金价格会随着持有黄金的机会成本上升而增长，高利率和股票升值会诱导投资者走出黄金这个避风港。2016年，低利率和对全球股票基本面的担忧抑制了这种效果，使投资者涌向黄金。

 

通货膨胀

当货币不稳定时，黄金被认为是一种自然的储存手段，通常价格与货币强度呈现出相反趋势。随着通胀预期的增加，尤其是美元，黄金价格也会随之上涨。全球通胀率一直增长缓慢，这导致未来几年的通胀率增长也会相对温和。

 

高失业率和低产能利用率给欧洲带来了负通胀压力，而日本央行则实行负利率以刺激通胀增长。尽管如此，控制食品和能源价格的美国核心通胀率在最近几个月却在稳定增长。对美联储加息的预期下降导致通胀预期上升。2016年全球的通胀率可能不足以引起黄金价格的稳定上升，但是其预期足以推动黄金价格在1月和2月的上涨。

 

3 Factors Driving Gold Prices Higher in 2016 (GLD)

By Ryan Downie | March 15, 2016

 

Gold opened 2016 at $1082 per ounce, based on the London PM Fix, and this price rose to $1226 by February 26, 2016. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD) entered 2016 at $101.46, rising 17% to $118.76 by the end of February. In the first two months of 2016, the gold rally was supported primarily by instability in the global economy, while interest rates and inflation expectations provided the necessary conditions for gold to become the destination for capital. Analyst expectations for gold over the final three quarters of 2016 were mixed after the rally, but most forecasts called for losses or modest gains in gold prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to slowly continue its rate hikes, and disinflationary pressures remain strong globally. With stabilization in major equity markets, the major catalysts driving gold higher seem to be abating.

 

Uncertainty

Gold is generally used as a hedge in portfolios, protecting against risks associated with adverse monetary, fiscal or macroeconomic conditions. Investors have historically flocked to gold in times of uncertainty or instability, due largely to the metal's insulation from industrial production growth and its traditional use as physical currency. In the first two months of 2016, substantial uncertainty loomed over the global economy. Ominous signs out of the Chinese economy triggered steep declines in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Low energy and commodity prices continued to drag on heavily extractive economies.

 

South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina experienced turmoil and high inflation, with Brazil enduring sustained gross domestic product (GDP) contraction. High unemployment and low capacity utilization in Europe compounded the fiscal problems emerging in the region, and concerns grew that monetary policy lacked the efficacy required to promote growth. Sharp commodity price declines and rumblings over a possible recession amid lukewarm corporate earnings and guidance took a toll on US. Equities.

 

This complex set of circumstances left investors with uninspiring options, with clear risks attached to different asset classes in many of the popular global markets. Given gold's traditional role as a hedge in portfolios, demand was stimulated by fear entering investor sentiment. The gold rally of early 2016 was supported primarily by trepidation and uncertainty surrounding other assets.

 

Low Opportunity Cost

With uncertainty gripping global markets, low inflation rates helped exacerbate the flow of capital toward gold and related securities. As capital flowed out of stocks in China, the United States and Europe, low interest rates around the globe dampened demand for government debt securities. Early in 2016, interest rates remained at low levels after years of expansionary monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve announced intentions to slowly raise rates, other central banks were forced to cut further rates or otherwise forgo normalization. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank both pushed nominal interest rates into negative territory, which is a relatively extreme measure.

 

Falling equity prices and pressure from finance ministers around the world caused many to speculate that the Fed's normalization program would decelerate. Gold prices tend to plunge as the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, with high interest rates or equity appreciation coaxing investors from the perceived safety of gold assets. In 2016, low interest rates inhibited this effect, combining with fears over global equity fundamentals to push investors toward gold.

 

Inflation

When currencies falter, gold is often considered a natural store of value, and prices typically have an inverse relationship with currency strength. As inflation expectations rise, especially those of the US. dollar, gold prices usually rise as well. Global inflation has been sluggish, and the consensus outlook calls for modest inflation acceleration in coming years.

 

High unemployment and low capacity utilization have created disinflationary pressures in Europe, while the Bank of Japan was forced to offer negative interest rates in an effort to stimulate inflation. Nonetheless, core inflation in the US., which controls for the effects of food and energy prices, has increased steadily in recent months. Falling expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes contributed to rising inflation expectations. Global inflation rates will likely not be high enough in 2016 to cause a sustained gold rally, but expectations were adjusted enough in January and February to allow other factors to push gold higher.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031516/3-factors-driving-gold-prices-higher-2016-gld.asp