伦敦对黄金价格的影响 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Sean Ross 2016年三月16日

2016年2月，中国政府宣布推出一个新的人民币计价的黄金价格方案。在这个消息发布不久之前的12月，217吨黄金被存储到中国的金库中，上海证交所的黄金需求在股票暴跌之后开始复苏。这仅仅是中国想让上海代替伦敦成为世界黄金交易中心的另一个案例。

从2008年之后金融媒体开始越来越关注伦敦黄金价格和黄金交易。首先，经济大萧条和随之而来的央行措施破坏了人们对法定货币的信任。黄金价格开始暴涨。国际政府，尤其是中国，在美国国债危机中开始大规模储存黄金以支持他们的纸币。之后在2014年，主要银行机构被发现通过伦敦系统操纵黄金价格。伦敦的黄金中心地位首次出现了不确定现象。

世界黄金价格制定者

世界黄金价格制定者开始于1919年，当时五个黄金交易机构成立了市场集团。这五家公司旨在提高黄金交易市场的流动性和一致性。每个公司都是做市商，与其他公司合作根据最近的供应和需求数据建立有效的市场价格。

直到2004年，伦敦黄金市场做市商还在早上和下午使用电话会议制定当天市场的价格。白银、铂金和钯金也使用同样的系统定价。

成员银行属于伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）。作为客户交易黄金订单的代理并进行自身交易。

许多投资者认为系统过时和存在内部交易，他们的担心在2014年得到了证实，当时五家成员银行因操控价格在纽约联邦法院被起诉和罚款。

2008年到2015年黄金价格走势

进入2008年，黄金价格在经历了三个巨大涨幅之后达到836.50美元。黄金价格在经济衰退期间增长缓慢，甚至在10初跌到728.50美元。黄金价格在2009年8月到2011年8月出现了成本增长，曾经一度超过1800美元。

现货黄金价格在经历了相对稳定的2012年之后大幅下跌。黄金价格在2013年1月初为1644美元，而年中时则跌到1203.25美元。直到2015年初，瑞士是黄金的主要买家。

之后，中国成为主要买家，或者说至少是最稳定的买家。从2015年2月到年末黄金开始从英国净流出到中国。结果是伦敦的黄金交易量开始减少，伦敦黄金交易量从2011年到2015年下降超过50%。

未来伦敦黄金的不确定性

伦敦在成为世界黄金价格制定者之前就是世界黄金中心。Goldsmiths公司成立于1300年，可能是西方最早的金银监管机构。英格兰银行成立于1649年，在接下来的300年都是世界上最主要的黄金交易所。

这些遗产现在都处于危险中。欧盟中的许多人希望伦敦从买家到卖家的直接市场变成电子黄金交易市场。伦敦金银市场协会已经宣布将建立这样一个中心。其他公司主张建立一个以块连接为基础的交易所，实际上是用比特币交易黄金。现在伦敦和伦敦金银市场协会需要做出一系列的重大改革以抵制亚洲竞争对手。

London's Effect On Gold Prices

By Sean Ross | March 16, 2016

In February 2016, Chinese authorities announced plans to launch a new yuan-denominated gold price-fixing scheme. The news came just after a huge 217-metric-ton shipment of gold was placed in Chinese vaults in December 2015, a strong revival of gold demand in the wake of the Shanghai stock market calamities earlier in the year. This is just one more sign that China wants Shanghai to replace London as a global center of gold trading.

The financial media has increasingly focused on gold prices and gold trading – and, by extension, London – since 2008. First, the Great Recession and the ensuing response from central banks eroded trust in fiat currencies. Gold prices shot through the roof. National governments, especially China's, rushed to fill their vaults with more bullion to back up paper money in the event of a US. Treasury crisis. Then in 2014, major banking institutions were found to be manipulating gold prices through the London system. London's future status as the leading gold hub is now uncertain for the first time in hundreds of years.

The London Gold Fix

The London gold fix started in 1919, when five huge gold-trading institutions organized themselves into a market collective. Led by N.M. Rothschild & Sons, the five companies aimed to increase liquidity and uniformity across gold-trading markets. Each company acted as a market maker, collaborating with the other players to establish an effective market price based on the most recent supply and demand order figures.

Since 2004, London's gold market makers have used morning and afternoon telephone conference calls to set global spot prices for the day. This is the same system used for silver, platinum and palladium bullion.

Member banks belong to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Each acts as an agent, trading gold orders made by its customers, and as a principal, making trades on its own behalf.

Many investors have long considered the system antiquated and ripe for rigging and insider dealings – concerns that turned out to be justified in 2014, when five member banks were sued and fined for price manipulation in a New York federal court.

The Gold Price Journey: 2008-2015

Entering 2008, gold spot prices were at a modern record of $836.50 after three years of substantial gains. Gold grew slowly during the heart of the recession, even dropping to $728.50 by that October. Prices doubled between August 2009 and August 2011, exceeding $1,800 an ounce.

Spot prices fell sharply following a relatively stable 2012. This was also when London started seeing a mass exodus of bullion. Gold sat at $1,664 per ounce entering January 2013 and declined to $1,203.25 by the middle of the year. Switzerland was the predominant buyer until early 2015.

Then, China assumed the mantle of chief buyer, or at least the most consistent. There were net outflows from the United Kingdom to China every month between February 2015 until the end of the year. The result is a much softer gold market in London. In terms of monthly net clearings, the volume of gold trade in London fell by more than 50% between 2011 and 2015.

London's Uncertain Gold Future

London was an international gold hub long before it established an official gold fix. The Worshipful Company of Goldsmiths, founded in 1300, was probably the first gold and silver regulatory body in the Western world. The Bank of England was established in 1694 and spent the next 300 years as the primary international gold exchange.

That legacy is now in jeopardy. Many in the European Union want London to move its direct buyer-to-seller gold market toward an electronic gold exchange. The LBMA already announced plans to build such a hub. Other gold companies argue for a blockchain-based exchange – essentially a Bitcoin for gold. It's likely that London and the LBMA will need some serious reforms to keep Asian competitors at bay.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031616/londons-effect-gold-prices.asp