美联储现在在正确的轨道上吗？

 Rick Rieder  2016年4月5日

我曾多次在博客上指出，在三年前机会成熟时美联储错失了提高利率的机会。在听到美联储主席耶伦在上周的评论后，我想说的是虽然美联储现在的行动缓慢，但是其做法符合当今的经济和市场环境。

美联储现在的政策是适当宽松

在她上周的评论中，耶伦强调美联储将会“谨慎地进行政策调整”，使美联储是否会在这个春天加息的疑问再次出现。她还感叹对传统的政策有一个“非对称”机会，我们相信那是美联储之前犹豫的直接结果。

现在，我相信美联储的观望态度十分明显，等待适当有利的全球经济、金融和通胀条件出现。正如下图所示，世界正经历美元的强势和主要与美元实行汇率限制的新兴市场经济增长放缓（尤其是中国）。实际上，以美元计价的全球经济增长正处于多年来最糟糕的水平。

通过保持不变和指出“如果出现动荡或者持续低下”可能将利率重新调回接近零的水平，美联储暗示能在短期内接受高通胀。这将会保证美元不会过分强势并对全球经济起到一定的缓解作用。

换句话说，现在的全球经济形势非常危险，尤其是来自中国逐渐增大的危险和欧洲和日本央行超激进的宽松货币政策需要美联储出台更加宽松的政策。

美联储在两年前出现利率正常化的机会时没有行动是个非常错误的决定。当时如果有所行动能给美联储更多的活动空间。现在，美联储必须与即将到达顶峰的美国就业增长、美国经济增长放缓和非常严峻的全球经济和金融市场形势抗争。

此外，美国就业率出现暂时下降，这是一个未来出现就业增长疲软的历史信号。这些因素都把美联储的利率正常化放到一个非常苦难的境地。这就是说，三月的就业报告打击了预期并再次表明劳动力市场何时变得强劲还是个未知数，这使我们更加相信美联储在今年最多进行两次或者不进行任何利率变化。

Is the Fed On the Right Track?

By Rick Rieder | April 05, 2016

I’ve pointed out many times here on the Blog that the Federal Reserve (Fed) missed its window to raise interest rates nearly three years ago, when conditions were ripe for a hike. After hearing Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s comments last week, I wanted to point out that despite the central bank’s slow-to-act approach, the Fed is doing exactly what it should be doing given today’s economic and market environment.

Fed policy today is appropriately easy

In her comments last week, Yellen emphasized that the central bank will “proceed cautiously in adjusting policy,” raising questions about whether the Fed’s second rate hike will happen this spring. She also lamented that there is an “asymmetric” opportunity set for conventional policy, which we believe is a direct result of the central bank’s previous hesitation.

For now, I believe the Fed’s current wait-and-see stance is clear, appropriate and appreciative of global economic, financial and inflationary conditions. As the chart below shows, the world is feeling the crunch of a stronger U.S. dollar (USD) and slower growth in emerging markets (in China in particular) that are largely pegged to the USD. Indeed, global growth priced in USD is at the worst level in years.

By remaining on hold and pointing out that it could adjust rates back to near zero “if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low,” the Fed is signaling it will tolerate higher inflation in the short run. This, in turn, should help keep the USD from strengthening too much and ease some of the pain on the global economy.

In other words, the global risks today, particularly the growth risks out of China, coupled with super aggressive easy monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) require easier policy from the Fed.

It’s just too bad the Fed didn’t initiate liftoff a couple of years ago, when there was an optimal open window for beginning rate normalization. A move then would have given the central bank more room now for maneuvering. Today, the central bank must contend with U.S. payrolls growth that is likely peaking, a moderating U.S. economy and challenging economic and financial market conditions abroad.

Further, temporary U.S. hiring has started to slow, which historically has been a signal of future weakness in payrolls growth. All these dynamics put the Fed in a difficult position regarding normalizing rates. That said, the March jobs report, which beat expectations and reiterated that labor markets are as robust at any time in a generation, leads us to believe all the more that this is a Fed that will move at most two times this year, with the potential for no movement at all in policy rates. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/040516/fed-right-track.asp