投资者为什么放弃日本股票？

 Dan Moskowitz

安倍晋三在2012年12月成为日本首相时投资者非常高兴，尤其是外国投资者。日本股票的70%来自国外投资。今年到目前为止，投资者已经抛售了价值460亿美元的日本股票。

2013年9月，日本首相安倍晋三参观了纽约证券交易所并传递出“日本正在卷土重来”的信号。外国资金蜂拥至日本股市并抬高了它们的价格。问题是日本央行的负利率政策并没有取得预期的效果。如果负利率政策不起作用，那么日本央行可运作的空间将非常小。然而，日本正在计划进行超过1840亿美元的双重刺激。

这将起到作用吗？没有人能确定这一举动在近期的效果，但是有事实表明人工抬高资产的价格通常不会取得好结果。例如，资金已经出现连续13周离开日本市场。

感知在投资中起到非常大的作用。这可以由美联储决定在2016年加息两次而不是4次证明。尽管经济数据没出现明显改善，这一改变还是造就了美国市场的反弹。

投资角度

这并不向看起来那么简单。安倍晋三将不会停止消费。如果经济出现放缓的迹象，他会增加更多的消费。这可能有机会吸引外国投资者返回，再次使日本股市走高。这一情况与美国类似，但是日本由于其人口老龄化程度而更加糟糕。随着人们年龄的增加，他们的消费就会减少。和美国不同是，日本没有庞大的千禧一代在不久的未来支撑消费。

综合这些因素，交易者可能考虑做多，而投资者则考虑做空。

直接做空日本股票的唯一方式是通过0.95%费率的2倍反向ETF。EWV（ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan）追踪摩根士利丹日本指数的2倍逆向表现。在去年它增值了2.04%，但是自2007年11月6日成立以来却贬值了83.32%。

如果你想通过ETF做多日本股票，可以使用EWJ（iShares MSCI Japan）和DXJ（WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF）。

EWJ追踪摩根士利丹日本指数的表现，包括小盘股、中盘股和大盘股，主要关注消费品、金融和工业。EWJ净资产为171.2亿美元。它去年下跌8.88%，自1996年3月12日成立以来下跌27.97%。它目前提供1.34%的股息收益率。该ETF的买卖费率平均为0.48%。

DXJ追踪智慧树日本对冲股指（WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index）的表现，该指数在反映日元兑美元表现的同时追踪日本指数的表现。DXJ的净资产为97.9亿美元，在去年贬值22.15%，自2006年6月成立以来贬值17.13%。它当前的收益率为1.64%，费率为0.49%。

总结

日本经济正在处于通货紧缩阶段，但是安倍晋三极其极端的态度可能引发日本股市的另一个反弹。这最终可能不会取得太好的结果，而外国投资者可能已经有所察觉。

Why Investors are Bailing on Japanese Stocks

By Dan Moskowitz

When Shinzo Abe became Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012 investors were excited, especially foreign investors. Seventy-percent of Japanese equities consist of foreign investment. So far this year, $46 billion has been pulled out of Japanese equities by investors, who include BlackRock Inc.

In September 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the New York Stocks Exchange with a message of “Japan is back.” Investors listened. Foreign money poured into Japanese stocks, driving them higher. The problem is that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) negative interest rate policy has not been as effective as anticipated. If negative interest rates don’t work, then the BOJ has little room to move. However, Japan now has plans to double stimulus exceeding $184 billion. 

Will it work? Nobody knows for sure in regards to the near future, but it has been proven that artificially inflating asset prices will not end well. For example, money has been moving out of Japan for 13 consecutive weeks.

Perception plays a big role in the investment world. This can be proven by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hike rates twice instead of four times in 2016. This change in stance has fueled a U.S. market rally despite no significant improvements for economic readings.

Investment Angles

This isn’t as easy as it seems. Shinzo Abe will not stop spending. If the economy appears as though it will slow, he will spend more. This, in turn, has the potential to draw foreign investors back in, which will again fuel equities higher. It’s a similar situation to the United States with the Federal Reserve, only that Japan’s situation is worse due to demographics and the second-oldest population in the world. As people age, they spend less. And unlike the United States, there is no large Millennial generation to act as a second wave down the road. 

Taking all these factors together, traders might consider playing the bull side while investors might consider playing the short side.

The only way to short Japan directly is via a 2x inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF) that comes with a 0.95% expense ratio. The ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV), tracks 2x the inverse performance of the MSCI Japan Index. It has appreciated 2.04% over the past year, but depreciated 83.32% since its inception on November 6, 2007.

If you want to go long on Japan via an ETF, look into the iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ) and WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ).

EWJ tracks the performance of the MSCI Japan Index, which included small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap stocks, with the primary focus being consumer discretionary, financials and industrials. EWJ has net assets of $17.12 billion. It has depreciated 8.88% over the past year and 27.97% since its inception on March 12, 1996. It currently offers a dividend yield of 1.34%. The expense ratio is right at the ETF average of 0.48%. 

DXJ tracks the performance of the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index, which tracks Japanese equities while also neutralizing exposure to the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. DXJ has net assets of $9.79 billion, has depreciated 22.15% over the past year as well as 17.13% since its inception on June 16, 2006. It currently yields 1.64% and has an expense ratio of 0.49%.

The Bottom Line

The Japanese economy is deflationary, but Shinzo Abe is extremely aggressive which could lead to another rally in Japanese stocks. Ultimately, it isn’t likely to end well and foreign investors might be sensing that. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042016/why-investors-are-bailing-japanese-stocks.asp