中国是否担心美元加息

 

到2016年中国已经成为亚洲最大和世界第二大的经济体，其GDP总量已经接近11万亿美元。尽管中国2015年6.9%的GDP增长率是25年来的最低涨幅。在美国实行宽松货币政策的2007到2015年间，中国经济经历了约十年的高速增长。其宽松的贷款政策使其中国借贷和消费增长比发其他达国家更加迅速。相对来说，中国对美国在2004年宣布实行紧缩的货币政策时担忧较低。因为中国在当时是一个有效的运行着一个相对封闭的经济的世界上第六大经济体，，且其货币人民币在当时被低估。经济快速发展12年之后，中国经济增长速度开始放缓，且人民币兑美元和其他主要贸易伙伴的货币时价值被高估。在2016年6月初的年度会谈中，中国官员将发表对美国在六月加息的可能性和加息可能对中国经济带来的影响的看法。

 

2016年，中国正面临着更大的全球资本流动和汇率风险。这些风险将在下面进行详细阐述。

 

资本外流

利用美国市场低利率更容易借款的环境，中国在过去十年中国经历了大量的资金流入，但是现在却正在面临资金全部撤回的严峻现实。此外，借入大量美元的中国企业随着美联储的加息将需要偿还更多的贷款。据估计中国2016年的净资本流出将从2015年的6740亿美元下将到5380亿美元。如果美联储比预期更快的加息，或者将其近期温和态度改变为强硬态度，人民币加大的贬值压力可能会加剧资本外流。

 

人民币贬值

中国不允许像美国那样无限制的金融市场货币交易。它限制人民币兑美元的价值并且把每天交易价格限制在中国人民银行设定目标的上下2%左右。2015年中国人民银行对人民币进行了约3%左右的贬值。2016年5月，中国人民银行将人民币兑美元汇率设置到五年来的最低水平，之后人民币对美元跌入四个月的最低价格。中国央行为了避免出现市场预示的人民持续下跌对人民币进行了贬值。这一举动是2015年大量资本外流的主要因素，引起了很高水平的投资者焦虑。事实是中国人民银行在2015年开始对人民币实行贬值以避免随着美元加息引起的人民币贬值进一步促进资本外流。

 

总结

美国联邦储备银行在2015年开始实行紧缩货币政策，尽管以一个温和的方式。这使得中国人民银行处于一个进退维谷的位置，央行需要用人民币贬值来唤醒出口、刺激经济，也要用人民币兑美元的限制来吸引外国投资，所以不得不在这两者之间找到平衡。然而同时，中国人民银行意识到随着中国投资者将资金转移出中国利用美元加息获利，人民币贬值可能加速资本外流。

 

Is China Getting Nervous About a U.S. Rate Hike?

 

By Tim Smith | Updated June 7, 2016 — 10:08 AM EDT

 

As of 2016, China is the largest economy in Asia and the world’s second-largest economy in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at approximately $11 trillion. Although China’s GDP grew at 6.9% in 2015, this was its lowest growth rate in 25 years. China has experienced approximately a decade of expansion as the United States continued to provide accommodative monetary policy between 2007 and 2015. Access to cheaper capital encouraged lending and consumption in China to propel at a more rapid rate than many of its developed world peers. China was relatively unconcerned when the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank began its tightening cycle in 2004. China was the world’s sixth-largest economy at the time, operating an effectively closed economy, and its currency, the yuan, was undervalued. Fast-forward 12 years, and China has a sluggish economy, an overvalued currency and the U.S. as one of its major trading partners. In early June 2016 annual talks, Chinese officials are set to press their American counterparts about the probability of a June rate hike and consider the likely impact that rising interest rates in the U.S. may have on the Chinese economy.

 

In 2016, China is now substantially more exposed to global capital flow and currency risks. These risks are examined in further detail below.

 

Capital Outflows

China experienced substantial cash inflows in the past decade, utilizing U.S. capital markets where it's easier to borrow due to a low rate environment, but it is now facing the harsh reality of a full-scale cash retreat. Additionally, Chinese companies that have borrowed large amounts of U.S. dollars are now facing increased repayments as the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lifts interest rates. The Institute of International Finance estimated that there was $175 billion in total capital outflows in the first quarter in 2016. It estimates that 2016 net capital outflow is likely to retreat to $538 billion, down from $674 billion in 2015. If the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank increases interest rates more rapidly than expected, or changes its present dovish tone to a somewhat more hawkish tone, capital outflow in China may intensify as the yuan comes under further depreciation pressure.

 

Yuan Depreciation

China does not let its currency trade unrestricted in the financial markets in the way the U.S. does. It pegs the yuan’s value to the U.S. dollar and restricts trading to a 2% band above or below a daily target set by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). In 2015 the PBOC depreciated its currency by approximately 3%. In May 2016, the yuan fell to a four-month low against the U.S. dollar after PBOC set the fixing rate at its lowest level in five years. The PBOC has devalued its currency in response to its continued rise when market forces suggest it should be declining. This action has been a key contributor to substantial capital outflow in China during 2015, causing an elevated level of investor anxiousness. An argument could be made that the PBOC began devaluing its currency in 2015 in preparation for U.S. rate hikes to avert bigger falls that would accelerate further capital outflows.

 

The Bottom Line

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaled its intention to begin tightening monetary policy in 2015, albeit in a dovish manner. This left the PBOC in the unenviable position of having to find a balance between trying to reduce the value of its currency to help rejuvenate its exports and stimulate its economy, making it more appealing for foreign investment as its currency was overvalued due to its peg against the U.S. dollar. At the same time however, it is aware that the yuan’s depreciation may contribute to capital outflows as Chinese investors transfer money out of China to take advantage of rising interest rates in the U.S.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/060716/china-getting-nervous-about-us-rate-hike.asp