负利率是好还是坏呢？

 Elvis Picardo  2016年6月26日

经济大萧条在2009年6月结束，但是受其影响，七年后的经济增长仍然存在动力不足的情况。国际货币基金组织在其2016年4月的《全球经济展望》中哀叹“全球经济增长缓慢的时间已经太长了”。国际货币基金组织认为不利的人口趋势、生产力增长缓慢和全球金融危机的影响阻碍了发达经济体的经济增长。

许多国家开始采取非常规货币政策来刺激他们的经济增长，在这些措施中，负利率可以说是最具争议性的。那么负利率到底对经济有利还是有害呢？下面我们来阐述下其三个主要利弊。

有利方面

负利率能刺激消费者支出：低利率是一个刺激消费者支出的强大工具。当把钱存在银行会产生惩罚性利息的时候，消费者更愿意把钱用来购买他们需要的商品。同时，在利率接近于零或者低于零时偿还购买汽车和家电的贷款会比利率高时容易的多。值得注意的是，想要消费者乐意消费，就得让他们对经济前景有信心。例如，尽管美国的利率水平明显高于欧洲，美国4月的零售率上涨了1.3%，是13月以来的最高涨幅，因为消费者信心达到了一年多来的最高点。相比之下，就像利率一样，欧洲的消费者信心处于负值，这反映出了消费者对经济的悲观态度和他们的财务状况。

负利率能鼓励银行放贷：资金是经济增长的动力，而银行则是这一动力的主要提供者。美国和欧洲的银行被大萧条中的资产负债表弄的伤痕累累，他们在几年的恢复之后才愿意把存在各自中央银行和政府债券中资金用来放贷。负存款利率鼓励银行房贷，因为放贷的利息收入要比存在央行获取负利息要好的多。考虑到这一因素，欧洲央行在2016年3月将其存款利息设定成负值，这使得银行一夜之间收回了存款的0.4%。与此同时，为了鼓励银行借款和进行更多放贷，它还将基准贷款和边际贷款利率下调了5个点，分别达到0%和0.25%。如果这这些措施还不能提高欧元区银行放贷的信心，那么什么能呢？

负利率刺激投资：负利率也能刺激投资，因为融资的成本非常低。企业可能会被诱导进行新基础设施、科技、研发和其他生产型资产的投资，而投资者将会关注承诺提供积极回报的房地产、股票和其他资产。当然，这些“套利交易”的风险是可能产生巨大的资产泡沫，在下面会进行解释。然而，有史以来最低的利率是股票市场在2015年6月达到新高的最主要因素，他们也在促进全球经济从近60年来最严重的经济衰退中进行复苏。

不利方面

泡沫过多：虽然央行希望银行在贷款组合中加入一些测量过的风险，问题是过低的利率会催生过多的投机并在经济的许多方面产生泡沫。许多国家的房地产市场被认为估值过高，鉴于其对国家经济的重要性，这一泡沫的破灭可能会给经济带来非常严重的后果。巴菲特在5月接受的一次CNBC采访中表示，如果确定未来50年利率一直为零，那么道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100000点，因为出售股票的市盈率将达到现在的100或者200倍。这并不是说巴菲特支持疯狂的进行投机，他只是想表明在长期低利率环境中估值会变成什么样。

邻国受害：低利率会使本国货币贬值，这是一个许多依靠出口支撑经济增长国家的央行希望看到的理想情况。问题是如果一个主要国家的货币贬值，会引发其贸易伙伴之间的竞争性贬值，会产生一个“邻国受害”的不利环境。鉴于许多国家已经出现负利率和货币贬值，巴西前财务部长Guido Mantega在2010年9月发出国际货币战争即将到来的警告似乎成为了一个预言。

未知的领域：负利率的一个主要风险是未知的领域和不可预测的结果。负利率带来的问题远远多余答案，例如：负利率会因为发出经济陷入困境的信号而损害信心吗？央行将在何时采取何种方式将货币政策回归正常化呢？随着时间的推移会出现通胀失控的风险吗？

总结

负利率能刺激消费支出、鼓励银行放贷并刺激投资。另一方面，它可以产生巨大的资产泡沫、引发竞争性货币贬值并可能带来无法预测的后果。不足为奇的是，我们都在等待负利率效果的出现，无论它们对经济有利还是有害。

Are Negative Interest Rates Good or Bad?

By Elvis Picardo, CFA | Updated June 26, 2016 — 10:15 AM EDT

The Great Recession ended in June 2009, but seven years later, one of its lasting legacies seems to be anemic economic growth. The International Monetary Fund, in its World Economic Outlook of April 2016, bemoaned the fact that global growth has been "too slow for too long." The IMF cited unfavorable demographic trends, low productivity growth, and the fallout from the global financial crisis as factors hampering growth in the advanced economies.

Many nations have adopted increasingly unconventional monetary policies to stimulate their economies and jumpstart growth; of these measures, negative interest rates are arguably the most controversial (See also: How Interest Rates Can Go Negative). So do negative interest rates help or hurt the economy? Here are three of their main pluses and minuses.

On the Plus Side

Negative interest rates spur consumer spending: Lower interest rates are a powerful tool to stimulate consumer spending. Consumers find it vastly preferable to spend their money on things they desire, when the alternative is to actually incur a penalty for depositing money in the bank. As well, servicing the debt used to purchase an automobile or household appliance is so much easier when the interest charged is close to zero or in the low single digits rather than in the high single digits or low teens. The caveat here is that in order to open up their wallets, consumers should have confidence in their economic prospects. For example, although interest rates in the United States are significantly higher than the levels prevailing in Europe, U.S. retail sales surged 1.3% in April – the biggest increase in 13 months – as consumer confidence rose close to a one-year high. In contrast, like its interest rates, European consumer confidence is in negative territory, measuring -7 (on a scale of -100 to +100) in May and reflecting some pessimism among consumers about the economy and their financial situation.

Negative rates should encourage banks to lend: Money is the fuel that powers an economy, and banks are the main provider of this vital ingredient. U.S. and European banks were so badly scarred by the damage inflicted on their balance sheets during the Great Recession that it took some years into the recovery before they were willing to make loans with an element of risk instead of parking funds at their respective central banks or in sovereign bonds. Negative deposit rates encourage banks to lend because the prospect of earning some interest income on their loans is preferable to the certainty of a negative return from holding excess funds at the central bank. Consider this example. In March 2016, the European Central Bank took the rate on its deposit facility deeper into negative territory, charging banks 0.4% to hold their cash overnight. At the same time, it cut its benchmark lending and marginal lending rates by 5 basis points to 0% and 0.25% respectively, in order to encourage banks to borrow and extend more loans. If these incentives do not bolster the confidence of euro-area banks to make more loans, what will?

Negative rates boost investments: Negative rates also boost investments because the cost of funding is so low. Companies may be induced to invest in new facilities, technology, R&D and other productive assets, while investors will target real estate, stocks and other assets that hold the promise of a positive return. Of course, the risk of such "carry trades" is that they may spawn massive asset bubbles, as explained in the next section. However, while record low interest rates were a key factor in enabling stock markets to reach new peaks by June 2015, they were also instrumental in fostering a global recovery from the worst recession in more than 60 years.

On the Minus Side

Bubbling over: While central banks want to encourage banks to take measured risks in their loan portfolios, the danger is that record-low interest rates may promote excessive speculation and create bubbles in many parts of the economy. Housing markets in many nations are considered to be highly overvalued, and given their importance to national economies, the bursting of these real estate "bubbles" can have dire consequences. Warren Buffett remarked in a CNBC interview in May that if there was absolute certainty interest rates would be at zero for 50 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 100,000 because stocks would be selling at 100 or 200 times earnings. That's not to say Buffett is endorsing rampant speculation; rather, his comment gives an idea of how far valuations can be stretched in a "low for long" interest rate environment.

Beggar thy neighbor: A negative interest rate pushes down the domestic currency, which is a desirable outcome for many central banks that are depending on export-driven growth to revitalize their moribund economies. The problem is that if a major nation depreciates its currency – either overtly or covertly – it may set off a round of competitive devaluations among its trading partners, giving rise to an unhealthy "beggar thy neighbor" environment. With negative interest rates and sliding currencies now the norm in many countries, former Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's warning back in September 2010 that an international currency war had broken out seems prophetic.

Uncharted territory: A key risk of a negative interest rate policy is that it is uncharted territory and may have unforeseen consequences. Negative rates pose more questions than answers, such as – Do negative rates impair confidence because they signal that the economy is in dire straits? How and when will central banks ever get back to normalizing monetary policy? Is there a risk of runaway inflation building up over time?

The Bottom Line

Negative interest rates spur consumer spending, should encourage bank lending, and boost investments. On the flip side, they can create massive asset bubbles, set off competitive devaluations, and may have unforeseen consequences. Not surprisingly, the jury is still out on the effectiveness of negative interest rates, and whether they help or hurt the economy.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/062616/are-negative-interest-rates-good-or-bad.asp